Australia's stuttering win in the Test match in Wellington will give comfort to those, such as the team and their fans on the selection panel, who are already prone to optimism. All the gang will be patting themselves on the back for a 10-wicket win over a reasonably competitive opponent, albeit one with a batting order that starts at number four and finishes at number seven.
But the subtext is England's visit for five Ashes Tests later this year, and from that point of view the match aggravated more headaches than it cured.
The best thing Marcus North could have done, for Australia's sake, was to fail again and get himself dropped. Instead, North's century, coming in at 4/176 on a belting pitch against tired bowlers, proved yet again that he is an attractive and heavy-scoring batsman on belting pitches against tired bowlers.
In his short Test career, North has shown himself to be that most infuriating of batsmen, our modern-day Graeme Wood. Wood had a habit of scoring one century a series, sometimes brilliant, sometimes dogged, but always enough to hold his place while he completed the series with a string of failures. Then, when his place was in jeopardy again, down he would knuckle and out would pop another century.
The Graeme Woods usually end up with Test averages around 40, but the variance between the peaks and troughs is so great that they almost do more harm than good. What this Australian team really needs is a Mark Taylor or a Mark Waugh, both of whom also averaged around 40, but their careers were formed of useful runs scored consistently in all conditions, not many big scores but constant handy ones. Marcus North is not such a batsman, or has no shown himself to be one so far, and it's a pity that the selectors didn't do the brave thing and blood Steve Smith, truly a cricketer for the future.
The current team has one all-weather performer in Simon Katich. Phil Hughes's ragged thrashing provides great entertainment but little security, and he will be replaced by Shane Watson in the next Test anyway. As an opener, Watson has mastered the likes of Kemar Roach, Ravi Rampaul and Mohammed Asif, but as far as his prospects against England are concerned, the question marks left at the end of the 2009 series are still awaiting answers.
Ponting, Hussey and Clarke. Hmm. Ponting's slow descent from the heights of 2002-2008 is understandable, and he can still be relied upon to score some runs, if not the flow of centuries and double centuries of those years. Hussey may have rediscovered his consistency of 2005-2008, or he may not. We'll see. Clarke showed in Wellington that with a clear head he is a very fine Test batsman. Just how fine? In the next 12 months, for Australia to climb back onto the top floor with England, South Africa and India, it is imperative that Clarke mature into a consistent scorer of centuries. As Ponting and Hussey go into their dotage, Clarke is the one. Leaving aside Bradman, Australia's best post-war batsmen, from Ponting back through Matt Hayden, Adam Gilchrist, Steve Waugh, Allan Border, Greg Chappell, Doug Walters, Bill Lawry, Bob Simpson and Neil Harvey, have averaged more than 60 during their peak years. Their career averages ended up between the high 40s and mid-50s, but in their prime they scored as 60-plus per dismissal. Clarke needs to step into that league.
As for the bowlers, they struggled in Wellington as they will always struggle against good opposition when the moisture goes out of the deck. Ryan Harris and Doug Bollinger are probably as good as Ben Hilfenhaus and Peter Siddle, so the team has lost no quality with their injuries. Mitchell Johnson has a good Test average because he picks up a lot of cheap wickets. Nathan Hauritz is doing better than anyone expected, if not quite as well as Australia will need. Brad Haddin, as wicketkeeper, has done everything asked of him, though a batsman as talented as he is should be aiming at a Test average of 50.
So there they go. England are battling along without their captain against Bangladesh, who, remember, almost beat Australia at home last time. The strongest form lines remain the last Ashes series, when England beat Australia 2-1, and the last series in South Africa, which England drew 1-1. They achieved both results with a near-zero contribution from their best batsman, Kevin Pietersen. I still think they are going better than we are, and so do they.