PHIL WROCHNA is managing editor of firstoffthebike.com and Radio SEN's cycling commentator. He will be filing daily for BPL during the Tour.

The Tour de France each year has a number of guys who can win, and it's not always the favourites who get up; sometimes, it's a less-fancied competitor who defies all expectations and has the ride of his life.

We have whittled down the list to our top five contenders though. This was based on some analysis of the teams, past form, and also a lot of spirited  debate around the office including one incident with a half-empty coffee cup. But we won't dwell on that!

Alberto Contador: The Shooter McGavin of the cycling world El Pistolero better known as Alberto Contador has got all the tools. He is a natural on the bike and will be keen to show the likes of Lance  Armstrong that he is still the best. There is a streak of arrogance about the Spaniard. This adds to the whole winners package. A gifted climber and vastly improved in the time trial Contador is simply the  best. He will have his troubles though. Stage three over the cobbles will be nerve racking and may cause him some nervous moments. But if  he gets through that then the Tour will open up for him and when he gets through the Alps he will be ahead or close to it. The only chink in the Contador armour is his team. It is hard to think Vinokourov will be riding for him. Vino has a history of being a maverick and has always considered Team Astana his.

Brad Wiggins: Wiggins is a man on the move. With his Sky team behind him he looks as if he has matured into the rider all of the Britian will be focussed on once the Cavendish circus is over (that's generally when it gets hilly). The time trial will suit Wiggins and it comes as a few of the others will be fatiguing into this third week. But Wiggins has a lot to prove and pressure of that team leadership will be a factor. He acquitted himself well last season but his month of May this year was less than spectacular. It can't be forgotten that  a gold medal heart beats within his chest and every time he has turned his attention to something cycling wise it has come off.

Cadel Evans: This is not the Cadel Evans of previous attempts. Enter Cadel version 2.0. Gone is the bad team and with it the team time trial. What's new is the rainbow jersey. Th jersey has given him confidence and it was won in a most UnCadel like way. The pundits say  he never attacks but he did to win the World Title and it was a beautiful victory. His win at Fleche Wallone was evidence of this style of riding continuing. Traditionally Evans gets stronger in the third week. Evans had a bad Tour last year but forget that. A new team, attitude and set of legs will banish the hurt of his horrible lap of France. On paper his team might not look the strongest but there are some very cool heads around Cadel this season. Expect big George Hincapie to be a very valuable asset.

Frank Schleck: This year it's Frank's turn. Brother Andy will climb well but Frank has the form to be the team leader. Andy is also coming off a training accident. This has been the story of his season so far. Frank may have what it takes to go all the way. He will need his   brother's support for a victory. The question is, are they the best fit for each other. A definite leader needs to be established early. They cannot go on trying to ride for each other. It divides their power.

Lance Armstrong: Say what you like about the Planet Lance but he will be prepared as anyone on the start line. Lance has had the full year to prepare as opposed to a lot less time in 2009. Then you have to factor Lance's character in too. He will want to prove a point to the rest of the world including the young and brash El pistolero. But as much as the world will watch hoping for a Lance win we must remind ourselves that he is racing on aged legs. He has a finite supply of power. But on his day he may rip the leading group to shreds. The pure climbers seem to have found their measure against him.

Special mentions go to Christian Vandevelde, Andy Schleck and Roman Kreuziger and Mick Rogers.

Our Tour De France Podium

1. Alberto Contador

2. Cadel Evans

3. Lance Armstrong

And while we are discussing the Tour congratulations to the 11 Australians who have made it to the start list. A great effort and we are proud of all the Aussie guys racing in this great race.