There seems to be a major disconnect here, between pundits and punters, on just how Tiger Woods will fare in his first tournament back from 'his troubles' of five months ago.

The punters' enthusiasm for Tiger's chances is reflected in the price being quoted by bookmakers, such as TAB Sportsbet. They have got Tiger listed as a $4 or $4.50 favourite - never mind that he's been dodging paparazzi, attending sex-addiction therapy classes and generally neglecting his strict practice regime since November. And, for all the talk about his game being ideally suited to Augusta, which is largely true, he's still only won once in the past seven Masters.

On the other side of the great Tiger divide, the pundits - that's to say the wizened band of golf writers at this week's tournament - have been polled and they reckon Tiger is next-to-no chance. They'd have him rated at about a $34 chance, or longer. (Instead, these guys are super-keen on Ireland's Padraig Harrington - pictured, above, with son Patrick at Wednesday's par-three contest).

Only three of 57 international golf writers polled by the Augusta Chronicle newspaper have picked Woods to win his fifth green jacket - yep, just one in 19.

Here is a quick rundown of their voting:

13 - Padraig Harrington (Ire)
10 - Ernie Els (SA)
7 - Lee Westwood (Eng)
5 - Steve Stricker (US)
3 - Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk (all US), Retief Goosen (SA)

There were 10 votes for other, left-field selections.

The writers - august group that they are - were also asked to predict whether Woods would win, finish in the top 10, make the cut or miss the cut.

Including the trio who tipped him to win, 26 went for top 10, 25 to make the cut and six to crash out after two rounds. So six of 57 - almost one in 10 of these journalists who follow golf around the world for much of the year - reckon Tiger (the bookies' favourite, remember) will be packing his bags after Friday's round and heading back to Jupiter Island.

So, who's right? We'll have to wait and see but $4 favourite seems a ridiculously short price, when you consider Ernie Els' recent form, Phil Mickelson's record at Augusta and a host of Europeans, such as Westwood and Harrington, who are in pretty smart nick.

The TAB released a press release yesterday saying Woods was carrying the bulk of the money wagered on the US Masters - 29.2% of the hold, against Mickelson's 12.3%.

Even at that prohibitive starting price of $4, TAB Sportsbet had taken a $15,000 bet and a $5,000 bet on Woods.

While Harrington might have been the pundits' favourite over there in the Masters press box, here in Australia he is listed at $19 and attracted just one half-decent bet ($1100) at that price.

The Aussie contingent has been pretty unloved, and with good reason. The green jacket has never been draped around the shoulders of a player with (Aus) after their name and on this point, both the punters and pundits are in accord: no Australian will win this year, either.

Geoff Ogilvy drew one bet of $500 at $41.00, but you could write your own ticket on the rest.

So can Tiger achieve one of the most improbable victories in golf, and perhaps the most memorable win in a career already dotted by astonishing results? The bookmakers and punters certainly seem to think so. Or have the guys sitting in front of their laptops, eating the free media-centre sandwiches, got it right? Stay tuned ....

LATEST TAB SPORTSBET ODDS ON US MASTERS:

$4.50 Tiger Woods
$11 Phil Mickelson
$15 Ernie Els
$17 Lee Westwood
$19 Padraig Harrington
$23 Retief Goosen
$26 Paul Casey
$29 Steve Stricker
$34 Jim Furyk
Camilo Villegas
$41 Robert Allenby
Anthony Kim
Geoff Ogilvy
Ian Poulter
$51  Angel Cabrera
Martin Kaymer
Hunter Mahan
Charl Schwartzel
Nick Watney