Bart Cummings will let the weather decide if So You Think kicks off his Cox Plate defence in Saturday's Liston Stakes at Caulfield.

But if the legendary trainer inspects the Liston's record as a Cox Plate lead-up, he might be inclined to give it a wide berth regardless of whether there is any more rain before Saturday morning's scratching deadline.

The $200,000 Group 2, which was first run in 1949, has been surprisingly insignificant as a Cox Plate lead-up in recent years.

Not only is it 32 years since So Called became the third and most recent horse to complete the Liston-Cox Plate double, just twice since 1986 has the Cox Plate winner's campaign included the 1400-metre Liston.

Better Loosen Up ran fourth behind Sydeston on the way to winning the 1990 Cox Plate, while 2008 Cox Plate champ Maldivian kicked off his campaign with a third to Light Fantastic in the Liston.

It's an amazing statistic given the Liston is the race that has gallops fans salivating in anticipation of what might be about to transpire over the next three months.

In fact, most modern-day Cox Plate winners have launched their campaigns outside Victoria.

Sydney has proven the most fertile place to launch a Cox Plate preparation, with Super Impose, Octagonal, Saintly, Might And Power, Sunline (1999) and So You Think among the horses to have started campaigns harbourside.

Kiwi winners Bonecrusher, Our Poetic Prince, Surfers Paradise, The Phantom Chance and Solvit began their Cox Plate preparations in their homeland, while Northerly got both of his successful campaigns going in Perth.

The Memsie Stakes and Manikato Stakes - which, ironically, was run in the timeslot now occupied by the Liston before moving to September - have also produced two Cox Plate winners. Makybe Diva and Fields Of Omagh (2006) kicked off in the Memsie, while Rubiton and Sunline (2000) both resumed with a win in the Manikato.

The Makybe Diva Stakes (Almaarad), Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (Fields Of Omagh, 2003) and Aurie's Star Handicap (El Segundo) are the other races since 1986 to have been used as a springboard by Cox Plate winners.

They are ominous stats for those who believe So You Think can go back-to-back at Moonee Valley on October 23, but one significant factor in the four-year-old's favour is Cummings, who has made a habit of defying history.

He last year maintained his belief that So You Think was a Cox Plate contender even after he missed a place in the Caulfield Guineas and was justified when the son of High Chaparral saluted as just his fifth visit to the races.

That made him the most inexperienced horse to win Australasia's weight-for-age championship.

So You Think stepped out two weeks later in the Emirates Stakes, when he was run down late by All American, and hasn't been seen at the races since.

Cummings thinks the extended break could be the making of the entire, but isn't heading to Caulfield expecting first-up success from the inside barrier in a field of 15 on a track that will be slow at best.

Among his rivals are AJC Derby champion Shoot Out, Mick Price-trained pair Predatory Pricer and Heart Of Dreams, Mark Kavanagh duo Shocking and Shamoline Warrior, Victoria Derby hero Monaco Consul, Vigor and Carrara.

Predatory Pricer is out to join Tauto (1971/72) as the only back-to-back winner of the Liston, while Heart Of Dreams is Price's other shot at a third win in the past five editions following victories by Pompeii Ruler (2006) and Light Fantastic.

But the horse they all have to beat is Shoot Out. The Queenslander returned to racing an impressive win over an unsuitable trip of 1200m in the Bletchingly Stakes two weeks ago.

He rocketed to the second line of Cox Plate betting in the wake of that success, but he is also high up in markets for both the feature Cups.

Sadly for trainer John Wallace, the Liston is an even worse guide to the Melbourne Cup than the Cox Plate. Subzero the only horse in the past 20 years to even make it to the gates on the first Tuesday in November after contesting the Liston.

With those stats in mind, perhaps the Caulfield Cup is the race Wallace should be focussing on with his star four-year-old.

Sydeston is the only horse to complete the Liston-Caulfield Cup double, but six of the past 20 Caulfield Cup winners - and four of the past 11 - have gone there via the race this weekend that has gallops fans so excited.

The Liston isn't all they have to be excited about, however, with Golden Slipper heroine Crystal Lily slated to resume in the Quezette Stakes and Blue Diamond champion Star Witness down to run in the Vain Stakes.