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The Inside Word on Moonee Valley

BPL

BPL

Written on Friday, 10 September 2010 11:58

The Spring Carnival heads into overdrive at Moonee Valley on Saturday when the course plays host to a cracking card - and Cox Plate aspirants will be given their last hit-out around the track before the WFA championship of Australasia in October.

The Moonee Valley circuit is unique in its tight turning nature and short straight, and can often be a "horses for courses" racetrack, so this must be factored into betting strategies on Saturday.

The main race, the Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes, is named in honour of the famous Malaysian businessman who races a plethora of horses with Bart Cummings in the famous black and white checks with yellow sleeves. Tan has had immense success in Australia; owning horses such as Saintly, Think Big, Viewed, God's Own and this year's Cox Plate favourite So You Think.

The main race is supported by a slashing undercard, which sees the Victorian debut of sensational sprinter Hay List in the McEwen Stakes, fresh from a brilliant performance over the Brisbane Winter Carnival. The Stocks Stakes is the other highlight with a capacity field of mares set to do battle over the mile.

Onto the selections:

The Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes looks an intriguing battle and riding tactics will play a major role. Horse of the Year, TYPHOON TRACY, will go across to the front early and dictate the race at her leisure. I believe it would be a mistake for Michael Rodd (WHOBEGOTYOU) and Stathi Katsidis (SHOOT OUT) to allow the great mare a picnic in front, and I think they will keep their mounts well within striking distance.

Going to tip WHOBEGOTYOU ($3) on top owing to a few niggling concerns over the other main chances. SHOOT OUT ($2.80) had a gallop at Moonee Valley on Tuesday and was lacklustre in her work and has to be seen as a risk on the surface. Peter Moody has said TYPHOON TRACY ($3) was short of full fitness when resuming in the Liston and will no doubt benefit from the run under her belt, but there are concerns over her under WFA conditions.

WHOBEGOTYOU has a near flawless record at Moonee Valley, loves the mile and his first-up run showed he is in top nick. It is my belief that if this son of Street Cry had a little more luck throughout his career he may well be rated as the best horse in the country. He could take a step towards that tomorrow. Omen punters might look to PRECEDENCE ($16) who will sport the Dato Tan Chin Nam colours in this race.

Blink and you might miss it - that's how quick they will go in the 1000M McEwen Stakes. The big boy, HAY LIST ($2.50), captivated punters with his incredible wire-to-wire win of the W J Healy Stakes at Eagle Farm in slashing time. He will lock horns with comeback kid, REDWARD FOR EFFORT ($3), who has returned from 12 months on the sidelines with a gritty win at Caulfield and then an effortless demolition of the Concorde Stakes field in Sydney.

As I see it, there is no value in the two favourites, as Hay List can be vulnerable on soft surfaces and Reward For Effort won't be afforded the picnic up front that it has benefited from its past two outings.

ROSTOVA ($11) was a boom 2YO when he first hit the racetrack, but seemingly went amiss for a while. However, in the autumn he showed a return to form claiming the Group 1 Sangster Stakes in Adelaide and tomorrow benefits from a cosy run, in behind the hot speed, and can unleash her booming sprint over the final 200M. She looks the each-way value in the race.

The most intriguing race of the day is the Pulse Pharmacy Handicap over 1200M. TRUE PERSUASION ($3.60) and ELUSIVE TOUCH ($5) head the betting, but it is the Queensland visitor, WOORIM ($7) who has caught my eye.

WOORIM'S most recent win in the Glasshouse Handicap at the Sunshine Coast had to be seen to be believed, coming from a seemingly hopeless position towards the back of the field before threading his way through the field and winning with plenty in hand. The Moonee Valley circuit is probably not ideally suited to Woorim's racing style, but with a stack of pace on up front I think he can finish over the top of them.

From a punting perspective, it looks a very tough day tomorrow, especially if the track comes up in the heavy range. Outside of the best bets I would look to trifectas and first fours, always including horses who have performed well at Moonee Valley.

My Best Bets:

PIHLDA ($5) looks a ripping each-way proposition in the last race. Mick Kent has taken this gelding to the trials since his last run where he was impressive in winning. Tomorrow, the horse gets back to his favourite track and ideal distance, and on a tough programme looks one of the standout selections.

SERVANT ($3.60) can get the day off to a winning start. Peter Moody is the in-form trainer about town and there is no reason he won't claim another victory with this lightly raced Commands gelding. He was caught wide last start at Caulfield but still had the audacity to fight right to the line when other on-pace runners were floundering at the back of the field.

Also in Race 1, I would consider a small saver E-W bet on CONDAHUSSLER ($15) who was heavily backed at Geelong before racing at the tail of the field and hitting the line nicely.

The Value Bet:

PARISIAN SUNRISE ($10) was an eye-catching third in the Crockett Stakes (the key form indicator for Race 3 tomorrow). Dutchy's Lass was able to dictate to suit that day, but given she will be a short priced favourite tomorrow I can't see her getting away with murder at the head of proceedings. There should be strong tempo that will suit PARISIAN SUNRISE and she can finish over the top of them.

The Black Booker:

KERDEM ($12), in Race 2, might have finished 13th of 15 last start but it was an extremely good run. He is a winner second up before and will be suited by a strong pace, he is worth an each-way ticket.

The Hail Mary:

While I tipped BELSCENIA ($11) on top in the Stocks Stakes (Race 8), it looks an incredibly open field and JOLIE BRISE ($41) can improve second up over the longer trip. The rider stated she was looking for more ground after her first-up effort and she does possess the talent to beat this field on her day.

Quaddie:

Leg 1 - Would like to declare something in the small field, but can't. Taking 7,1,3,2.
Leg 2 - Looks a three horse race, consider RUNDLE for value, 2,8,5,6.
Leg 3 - These mares racing a giving me nightmares, week in week out. Hoping to inject some value here: 7,15,14,8,10,11,5.
Leg 4 - Coming home skinny with PHILDA and ABOVE AVERAGE.

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