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The Inside Word on Caulfield

BPL

BPL

Written on Friday, 17 September 2010 10:00

Spring dreams will be realised and others shattered on Saturday as Caulfield hosts the most important day's racing of the 2010/11 season to date.

The AFL have kindly agreed to play their inaugural night Grand Final this Friday to allow the Spring Carnival centre stage come Saturday with the running of the first Group Ones: Underwood Stakes and Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes along with the all-important Caulfield and 1000 Guineas previews.

From a punting perspective, I couldn't be happier to return to Caulfield after a tough week at Moonee Valley last weekend, and armed with a couple of black bookers there is plenty of money to be made.

Bart Cummings has assembled a formidable team for the spring carnival and his tilt for a 13th Melbourne Cup, headed by the stable star, So You Think, who will start a raging favourite for the Rock Ebony Underwood Stakes (1800M).

It is hard to fathom that So You Think (pictured above) is on track to become a dual Cox Plate winner after just ten starts, a feat that ensures his place in racing history for years to come. The simple fact of the Underwood Stakes is So You Think has drawn to lead, dictate, kick away and demolish a quality Group 1 field - but there is little value to be had in the $1.70 currently on offer.

Shares in Zabrasive ($15) are being given away through a TAB promotion, and I would like to put my hat in the ring to win one. By Zabeel, he was sensational in the highly rated Memsie Stakes and is only going to improve as the distances increase; he may well provide a potential foil to So You Think on Saturday.

In a race choc-full of talent the other main hopes appear last year's winner, Heart Of Dreams, Sydney visitor Metal Bender, who can race handy to the speed, and 2009 Melbourne Cup winner Shocking who will again be hitting the line hard.

The Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400M) is the other Group One race headed by boom horse, Doubtful Jack ($2.80), who has been nothing short of scintillating in his past four victories.

Undoubtedly "Jack's" most outstanding win was his recent demolition job of the Group 3 Bobby Lewis field, but on Saturday he will be asked to carry more weight than he has at his previous victories whilst also stepping up to Group One level, albeit a weak one.

Those who read my Monday review will know I was spruiking Woorim ($13) based on its completely luckless run at Moonee Valley last Saturday and I couldn't be happier that trainer, Robbie Heathcote, has decided to back the horse up seven days later. He had little more than a track gallop last weekend and should be in fine fettle for this Group One tilt. Woorim shot to racing fame with two dominating wins at the tail end of the Brisbane Carnival and will be very well suited by a strong tempo set by Jungle Ruler, Gathering, Sister Madly and Co. He will bide his time at the tail of proceedings before Nikolic releases the handbrake and make a blistering run reminiscent of his father, Show A Heart's, brilliant Toorak Handicap win at Caulfield when steaming home from a seemingly impossible position with 400M to go.

Other horses worth considering for multiples: Response ($7) (who flew home in an eye-catching run at Flemington), Electromotive ($51) (good first up run and will improve on better ground) and Gold Salute ($14) (who was controversially withdrawn from the race after dislodging his jockey when the gates crashed back in this race last year).

The Caulfield Guineas is a stallion-making race and this weekend's lead-up will provide a crystal clear picture as to who will be winning the feature 3YO mile race on October 9th.

Toorak Toff ($2.80) was yesterday backed to win $375,000 to give Rick Hore-Lacy his first win in the race since the champion, Redoute's Choice, went toe to toe with fellow leading sire Testa Rossa in one of the most stirring battles ever witnessed at the Heath. Toorak Toff has had the perfect campaign, which could result in a Cox Plate start, and his last start win in the Golden Rose was outstanding against the best 3YOs in the country. He will again be the horse they have to beat.

The main dangers on Saturday are Kudakalari ($7) and Rekindled Interest ($8) who have both featured in my black book section.

Kudakalari was luckless in the Golden Rose, finishing a close up fifth, and while I feel his best distances are going to be 1600M and beyond he will be competitive this weekend.

Rekindled Interest is in this race up to his ears. He caught my eye with his last 200M in the Danehill Stakes at Flemington and, although still a maiden, I think he poses the greatest risk to the favourite and is worth an each way bet.

The only concern for the three horses I have identified is an apparent lack of speed in this race, and if the track is favouring frontrunners, then Innocent Gamble ($41) will be a fluky chance at big odds.

The fillies will contest the 1000 Guineas Prelude and it will be a vital indicator towards the major classics with the 3YO ladies looking to be an incredibly even bunch.

Queensland visitor, Ringa Ringa Rosie ($7.50), adds a little spice to this race after returning with a slashing win at Doomben last month.

Like the Guineas Prelude, there doesn't appear to be a lot of pace in the fillies division and this will suit Speed of Dark ($10) who will be right on the pace from barrier six. In her second campaign, this daughter of Fusaichi Pegasus has come on in leaps and bounds and was terrific in running second to the highly rated Sayahailmary at Caulfield recently.

Party Hard ($41) was friendless in the betting ring on debut at Flemington, but looked magnificent in the mounting yard before running an eye-catching third to Pinker Pinker ($10). If their tempo is solid she will be getting home late and might pose serious danger to the frontrunners.

In an open race there are a host of chances but I would be including Pinker Pinker (was heavily supported at Flemington and won well after being shuffled back in the field), Barabgaroo (very nice first-up win at Geelong and looks capable of going on with the job) and Panapique (who I am inclined to forgive for her Golden Rose flop, well suited back to Caulfield).

The Naturalism Stakes (2000M) is a key lead-up to the BMW Caulfield Cup and while horses have struggled to complete the double in recent years, plenty have gone on to run cracking races.

This year the race has great importance with Warnambool trainer, Ciaron Maher, desperately trying to qualify his star stayer, Moudre, who incredibly is favourite for the Cup in spite of being 45th in the order of entry. A win on Saturday would promote him straight into the field.

Moudre has been outstanding in two easy victories this campaign, at Flemington and Caulfield, and with his very tractable racing style, I find it hard to see him being beaten this weekend.

Peter Moody import, Mr Charlie, over from New Zealand made a big impression on his Australian debut at Flemington and looks a genuine Cups contender and presents the main danger to Moudre. Rainbow Styling should be peaking now second up from a freshener and is capable of running a big race.

Personally, I can't wait to get to Caulfield on Saturday for this star-studded programme that is going to provide so many leads and insights into the upcoming feature races. On what looks a strong betting programme I have separated the wheat from the chaff and highlighted a number of strong bets on the card, so best of luck and hopefully it is a profitable weekend.

The Racing Insider's "Play of the Day"

Race 7 Woorim on an each way basis. He is currently $14 in most markets and for the reasons mentioned gets his chance to atone for a luckless Victorian debut at Moonee Valley. I expect this horse to be extremely strong to the line and am keen to back him each way.

Best Bets

Race 8 Moudre straight out. The Caulfield Cup favourite appears to have scared away most of its opposition with the race falling away significantly from nominations to acceptances. The son of Blevic really looks to have this race in his keeping and should provide a good hit-out on his way to the major races later in the spring.

Race 9 Valentine Miss comes through the very strong Crockram Stakes form line that has dominated mares racing so far this spring and, despite being a gallop short, she hit the line very nicely. Since that run this Mark Kavanagh mare has had a little freshen up and importantly should get a firm surface which will see her improve. From a good barrier she is a great each way chance.

Value Bet

Race 5 Speed of Dark is about $10 at the moment and that is sensational each way value for a horse that will be in the firing line most of the journey. She ran into a smart one last time out but hit the line very nicely, comfortably accounting for the rest of the field.

Black bookers

A host of The Racing Insider's black bookers going around this weekend; Rekindled Interest, Metal Bender, Zabrasive, Woorim, Response and Mr Charlie.

However, I have honed in on Pitt Street and Altius (Race 1) who were both highlighted for their most recent runs and look an ideal quinella in a race that will shape the upcoming Victorian Derby.

The Hail Mary

Nothing that stands out at big odds but for those who chase the millionaire's lifestyle on a Centrelink wage consider small investments on Innocent Gamble ($41) and Party Hard ($41).

Quaddie

Leg 1 - Most will take So You Think one out - I am going 10, 11, 4, 1 and 5.

Leg 2 - Hopefully get some value here: 10, 1, 12, 14, 15 and 2

Leg 3 - I will be taking MOUDRE one out. Consider 8, 11, 13 and 6

Leg 4 - Another open race, in order: 11, 6, 4, 3, 2 and 7.

While the main action is in Melbourne, there are a raft of quality races set down for decision at Rosehill: The Hill Stakes, Gloaming Stakes, Shannon Stakes and Tea Rose Stakes.

A couple of horses I have been keeping a close eye on are stepping up in grade and as a result have come up tremendous value in early markets.

Rosehill Race 5 Landlocked has been brilliant in two midweek runs this time in and although he steps up to stakes grade on Saturday it is a pretty weak Group Two race. This horse possesses a lethal turn of foot that will prove crucial at the end of 1900M, at $15 in early markets he is terrific each way value.

Rosehill Race 8 Captain Sonador ($13) went straight into the blackbook after his first-up win in Brisbane. This horse has very strong form around Shoot Out and looks to have returned from a slight injury Autumn in fine fettle. I expect a huge showing from the Captain on Saturday and he may well be off to Melbourne later in the spring.

 

 

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