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The inside word on Randwick and Flemington

BPL

BPL

Written on Friday, 01 October 2010 15:29

Two days, nineteen races, five group ones and a host of stakes races at Randwick and Flemington. This weekend is heaven for any racing fan.

The double header kicks off at Royal Randwick on Saturday with the time-honoured Epsom Handicap (1600) and The Metropolitan (2400M). These two races are steeped in tradition and date back to 1863, surpassed only by the AJC Derby and Sydney Cup as longer running races held by the Australian Jockey Club.

The Epsom Handicap is the premier mile race of the Spring Carnival and boasts a tremendous honour roll, including recent winners Super Impose, Desert War, Shogun Lodge, Theseo and 2009 Champion, Rock Kingdom.

The Metropolitan, as well as being a tremendous staying challenge in its own right, provides a springboard for stayers aspiring to Caulfield and Melbourne Cup success.

The day, which is the most important single day of racing on the Sydney Calendar, will see the running of two other Group One Races for three year olds, the Spring Champion Stakes (2000M) and Flight Stakes (1600M for fillies).

Once the dust has settled and we finally have a winner of the 2010 AFL Grand Final, the attention of the sport loving public will quickly shift to the Turnbull Stakes meeting, now moved to Sunday.

The VRC have aptly labelled the meeting as "Spring Carnival Preview Day". It is the day that separates the contenders from the pretenders and once the last horse passes the post on Sunday evening we will have a much clearer picture of how the major spring races will play out.

The Turnbull Stakes (2000M) is the feature and, although diminished by the absence of superstars So You Think and Whobegotyou, will see last year's Melbourne Cup winner, Shocking, battle a host of Cox Plate and Caulfield / Melbourne Cup aspirants including Moudre, Descerado, Shoot Out, Typhoon Tracy and Monaco Consul just to name a few.

The Gilgai Stakes (1200M) will see a tantalising battle with boom sprinter, Hay List, tackling the comeback kid and crowd favourite, Weekend Hussler, who has raced only three times in two years due to injury.

Another feature of both the Randwick and Flemington meetings will be the first 2YO races featuring a host of high priced babies and bargain basement buys commencing the long road to the $3 Million Golden Slipper.

It is sure to be a ripping weekend of racing, so let's get stuck into the winners.

It is not a vintage Epsom this year with More Joyous and Drumbeats opting to head to Melbourne and 2008 Winner Theseo heading to the spelling paddock.

The absence of headline acts paves the way for Trusting ($5) to post his first major race win after putting the writing on the wall with a slashing run in the George Main Stakes last week. Once favourite for the 2009 Caulfield Guineas, Trusting has mixed his form this campaign, although his poor showing at Newcastle could be blamed on a shocking track-bias that day. He is beautifully weighted with just 52kg and possesses the devastating turn of foot required to conquer the arduous Randwick Mile. Captain Sonador ($13) poses the greatest threat to Trusting, he looks ideally suited to the Randwick mile and will strip a lot fitter after his gallant second-up third behind Drumbeats last weekend.

The other major chances in an open race appear to be Firebolt (who was devastating in winning the Shannon Stakes), Neeson (who has been favoured throughout in long range betting in the race) and Once Were Wild (Gai Watehouse has a great record in the race and this is her best chance in 2010).

The Metropolitan looked a one-act affair until Herculian Prince's ($3.20) bubble exploded last weekend. Sent out a short priced favourite last week, the Gai Waterhouse stayer looked ordinary in the parade ring before failing to give a yelp and it is very hard to see him producing the turnaround in form required to win this weekend.

I was impressed with the run of Landlocked ($13) last start in the WFA Hill Stakes (1900M) behind Descerado. He drops 4kg under the handicap conditions of the Metropolitan and has the turn of foot to be strong at the end of 2400M. Another major contender in the race is Saint Encosta ($26), black booked for his last start second after racing at the tail of the field, he is stepping right up in grade but is a progressive type who can run a bold race.

The Flight Stakes sees a particularly competitive field assembled with the Group One winning Victorian, Yosei, and unbeaten filly, Brazilian Pulse, heading north to tackle the well-performed NSW fillies More Strawberries, Parables and Sasa.

Yosei ($7) was outstanding in the 1000 Guineas Preview, running slashing final sectionals and looks ideally suited at the 1600M. She is already a Group One winner at Randwick and I expect her to race more handily on Saturday. The main danger has to be the daring front running filly, More Strawberries ($2.70), who, in spite of being largely ignored by punters in favour of Parables ($2.70) this campaign, continues to lead, kick away and win.

The Queen of Sydney, Hot Danish ($1.70) could well provide the highlight of the card in The Sydney City Lexus Shorts (1200M). She was brilliant in her first-up demolition job in the Premiere Stakes, and whilst facing a stronger field this Saturday, I expect her to have very few troubles disposing of her rivals. She is an out and out star and will again head to Melbourne to tackle stronger races later in the spring.

Over to Flemington on Sunday and the Turnbull Stakes market is headed by Shocking ($5) who is, incredibly, unbeaten at the track. He will again be hard to beat, but I am tipping the 2009 Derby winner in Monaco Consul ($26) to show a return to form. Trained by Michael Moroney, who is no stranger to big race successes at Flemington, the son of High Chaparral has been working the house down since running seventh in the Makybe Diva stakes, and looks ready to peak in his third run this campaign.

In a race chock full of Group One talent I think the major danger comes in the form of Warrnambool up and comer Moudre ($7) who is currently the second emergency and in need of two scratchings to gain a start. Moudre is going to relish being back at Flemington after getting too far out of his ground around the tighter turning Caulfield track last start and he can definitely rocket into Caulfield Cup contention with a big Turnbull Stakes run.

I thought the major dangers were, Dariana (an in-form mare form the Bart Cummings yard who hit the line brilliantly in the Underwood Stakes), Descerado (down from Sydney on the back of a convincing all the way win in the Hill Stakes) and Zipping (who was sound in the Feehan and capable of big improvement second-up).

The Gilgai Stakes (1200M) is the most exciting race on the card with sprinting star Hay List set to tackle Weekend Hussler, who is on the comeback trail from a serious injury. "The Huss" is going to have to be at the top of his game to get near the steamrolling beast, Hay List, and I doubt that even a career-best performance from Weekend Hussler would see him victorious. Hay List will continue his dominance of the Spring sprinting scene and claim his third straight Victorian win on Sunday.

The race sees a capacity field assembled to tackle the straight six, and amongst the other chances are Swick (who absolutely flies first up), Bank Robber (a recent acquisition to the strong Mark Kavanagh stable) and Catapulted (who gallantly chased Hay List home first up).

 

The Racing Insider Play of the Day's

Sydney Race 10 Shannara ($3.50) jumped slowly when resuming in the Research Stakes and proceeded to pull her head off in the run. She never settled that day and struggled for clear galloping room in the straight before hitting the line better than any runner in the race. She will settle closer to the speed from barrier eight on Saturday and with natural improvement second-up will be incredibly hard to beat.

Melbourne Race 9 Woorim was desperately unlucky when the play of the day a few weeks ago. Unfortunately he won't start $17 again this weekend, but I do expect him to be winning. He has drawn a more favourable outside gate, which will ensure a clear passage when making his run at the top of the straight, and the wider Flemington surface will be ideal for this horse.

Best Bets

Sydney Race 5 Yosei ($7) represents terrific each-way value with the two Sydney horses opening up short priced equal favourites. Yosei is already a Group One winner at Randwick and showed she is ready to peak third-up on the back of her slashing Caulfield run. She should benefit from a nice run in transit and provided the track is playing fairly, she will get her chance in the straight.

Melbourne Race 2 Altius is another horse I have been following closely over the past month. This half brother to Elvstroem and Haradasun is still incredibly green and learning the caper, but I expect him to turn the tables on Mackadoo on Sunday. He is ideally suited to Flemington and has the long straight in which to unwind his devastating turn of foot. He will be winning this on his way to the Group One Victoria Derby later in the Spring.

Value Bets

Sydney Race 7 Landlocked ($13) is in the Metropolitan up to his ears. He has had the perfect campaign for this race and should derive plenty of improvement from his Hill Stakes effort. He is very well suited back to handicap conditions and should be right in the finish.

Melbourne Race 4 Exceptionally was hitting the line nicely at Caulfield and gets back to her most suited track. She won the St Leger (2800M) at this track in April and looks ideally suited to run out the 2500M this weekend, I expect her to run very well at each way odds.

Melbourne Race 5 Majestic Music has a perfect record at Flemington and as highlighted in my review a few weeks back her run at Caulfield was much better than the form guide will suggest. She has had two runs this campaign to blow out the cobwebs and will be set to peak third up on Sunday; I expect a bold showing from her at double figure odds.

Epsom Tip

As is typical of the big Randwick mile races the betting market is wide open and I will be focusing on two horses. Trusting was very impressive last week and last year he won the Group Two Warwick Stakes on a similar seven day backup. While Captain Sonador was a little disappointing last week, he looked in need of the run after a long break between races and he can make the necessary improvement to figure in the finish.

Turnbull Stakes Tip

Monaco Consul looks a great each way chance. Judging by his track work he will improve immensely from his Makybe Diva Stakes run a month ago. He was simply outstanding in winning the Victorian Derby at Flemington in the Spring and should be ready to reproduce that sort of form on Saturday. Shocking and Moudre (provided he gains a start) look the principal dangers in a very open race.

Quaddie Tips

Sydney

Leg 1 - Keen to pot Herculian Prince as favourite; 13,9,3,6,1,12

Leg 2 - Very open race as always; 5,12,13,3,2,4,18

Leg 3 - Hard to see them beating Hot Danish, she can be taken one out.

Leg 4 - Shannara one out if you are keen to play skinny; 2,9,6,4 the dangers in order.

Melbourne

Leg 1 - Tough start; 14,5,7,9,8,2,19

Leg 2 - Again very tough but in order; 6,1,18,12,2,15,16

Leg 3 - Hay List one out but if seeking value consider 1,3,7

Leg 4 - Pretty confident on Woorim, next best 9 and 15

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