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Carnival picture becomes clearer

BPL

BPL

Written on Monday, 04 October 2010 13:47

A lean weekend for The Racing Insider, however, many readers would have cleaned up on the Epsom Handicap with the top two tips, Captain Sonador ($14) and Trusting ($6), running the quinella at a hefty $43.40 dividend. Hay List and Hot Danish justified their short quotes and won as expected, while the Plays of the Day, Woorim and Shannara, could only manage second and third respectively.

It was a huge weekend of racing and with the major Group One races kicking off next weekend, it is time to identify those who put in slashing Cups trials, the horses saying "back me next start" and those that have shown they are not quite up to the hustle and bustle of the Spring Carnival.

The Turnbull Stakes has been a great form pointer to the Cox Plate and Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, although it is often those who finished behind the winner that go on to win the big races.

The old boy, Zipping (pictured above), was outstanding in his fighting win after being forced to race three and four wide the entire journey. He is not a horse that wins out of turn, but he seems to be going much better than previous campaigns and might be a genuine Cox Plate contender this year.

Shocking has been brilliant this preparation and was outstanding in running second yesterday after being held up in the straight. From a Melbourne Cup perspective, Shocking has had the perfect campaign and he looks right on track to make it back-to-back victories in the famous two mile race on the first Tuesday in November.

Two runs outside of the first three really caught my eye, Metal Bender and Faint Perfume.

Sydneysider, Metal Bender, has been excellent in his two southern state runs this campaign and stewards were advised on Saturday that the horse would be ridden at the tail of the field, against his normal racing pattern.  In spite of being thirteenth at the 400M mark the horse worked to the line brilliantly over the concluding stages to finish fourth, just over a length from Zipping.

Faint Perfume has failed to reach the dizzy heights of her three-year old days so far this campaign but her run in the Turnbull was full of merit. Like many Bart Cummings stayers she was dour to the line, slowly making ground over the concluding stages in what was a very encouraging Caulfield Cup trial. She will drop to 52kg for that race in two weeks and I feel that with the Cummings magic rubbing off, she will be very competitive over the 2400M.

The horse they are going to have to catch in the Caulfield Cup is Gai Waterouse's 100th Group One winner, Herculian Prince. His win in the Metropolitan Hcp had to be seen to be believed. He shot out to a commanding lead mid-race but was caught and passed by Mourayan at the 1200M mark before showing tremendous dash at the top of the straight and shooting to an effortless 3.5L win. It was an outstanding performance and atoned for a terrible performance at his previous start when choking down as a long odds-on favourite. Waterhouse looks to have a serious Caulfield Cup contender with Herculian Prince and I am looking forward to seeing him in action in three weeks' time.

Patinack Farm's Count Encosta was an eye-catching fourth in the race after getting well back in the field early. He is a stayer on the up who will continue to improve over the next twelve months and might be a serious Cups contender by this time next year.

Mr Charlie was sent around a well supported favourite in the Metropolitan and was right in contention for the Caulfield Cup, but showed he is probably not up to the top-liners at the moment in running a moderate sixth place.

The Manifold Stakes (1600M) at Flemington was taken out by Sistine Angel, who was black booked in this review two weeks ago. She did a brilliant job in rounding up the field from the tail of proceedings and her devastating turn of foot will see her competitive in major races throughout the Spring.

The Michael Moroney trained, Brazilian Pulse, was very wide facing the breeze the entire race and was brave in running second at only her third race start. She is absolutely loaded with talent and is only going to improve over the coming months and with added race experience may well turn the tables on the winner at their next meeting.

Pinker Pinker ran an eye-catching fifth and was hitting the line very well while the Danny O'Brein trainer Shamrocker is going to be very hard to topple in the VRC Oaks after working to the line for third place. She has outstanding staying ability and will now head straight to the longer races as many of the other Manifold runners shoot for Group One glory in the Thousand Guineas.

If Shamrocker is shaping as an Oaks contender then Eclair Surprise is already etching his name on the Victoria Derby trophy. The Peter Moody colt settled at the rear of proceedings in the UCI Stakes (1800M) and was forced to make a number of runs in the straight before bursting clear near the line to claim a brilliant victory. Yesterday's win was only his third race start for two career wins, and while it can be fraught with danger predicting these 3YO staying races a month out, he looks a perfect horse for the 2400M Derby.

Out of the same race the run of Shadowofexcellence, a relative of three-time Melbourne Cup winner Makybe Diva, was full of merit. Like the winner, he is only lightly raced, (having his second start yesterday) but like his famous half-sister looks to have above average staying ability.

Altius, who I have highlighted twice this campaign, was disappointing on face value, running fifth as a short-priced favourite in the race and to my eye he looks to be a year away from fully maturing. While not completely out of Derby contention, I would rather follow the horse in the Autumn and more so next Spring once he has fully matured and put some race experience under his belt.

The Epsom Handicap (1600M) was the other major race at Randwick on Saturday. Captain Sonador did a brilliant job to step up to Group One Company at only his third run this campaign and as I have suggest ad-nauseam, this horse has serious star potential. Trusting, who was ridden a half kilogram overweight, was strong to the line and would have overhauled the winner in a few more bounds.  Both horses are heading to the WFA Cox Plate at Moonee Valley later this month, but they will need to improve further to be competitive amongst the likes of So You Think and Whobegotyou.

Outside of the winners, who were well clear of the field, Prince Braeman did a magnificent job to finish fifth after working extremely hard in the early stages of the race from his wide barrier draw. While not fancied in the race (sent around $71) he performed much better than most of the more-fancied opposition and will now head south to Melbourne where he can be ultra competitive, particularly on any rain affected surfaces.

A few other runs worth following from the weekend:

Strawberry Field got along way back in the Blazer Stakes and was forced to change course in the straight before charging late to finish third. She was hitting the line better than any horse in the race and could repeat her Flemington Carnival win of 2009.

Ringa Ringa Rosie pulled her head off in the Manifold Stakes and will be improved for her second outing the Victorian way of going. Divorces, favourite in the same race, missed the start quite significantly and could be forgiven the poor run as she likes the box seat in her races.

Red Colossus was sent to the racing Mecca that is Bairnsdale for their Cup race over 1600M on Saturday. Although he disappointed punters who stepped into the $2.40 odds, his work over the concluding stages was very sound and he will be ready to win over the longer journeys in the very near future.

The Spring Carnival will take centre stage in sport-loving Melbourne next weekend as the AFL Season makes way for the first of the major Group One meetings, Caulfield Guineas Day. Arguably the second best day on the Australian Racing Calendar, behind Derby Day, the Guineas meeting is sure to attract a large crowd to Caulfield Racecourse.

The 1600M Caulfield Guineas is shaping as a tantalising battle between Victorian star, Toorak Toff, and the Sydney raider Ilovethiscity who was a brilliant winner at Newcastle last start. Another highlight on the card will be the Herbert Power Stakes over 2400M as Moudre attempts to gain a last-minute Caulfield Cup run, while Australia's best middle distance horses, So You Think and Whobegotyou, will do battle in the 2000M Yalumba Stakes.

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