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The Inside Word on Caulfield

BPL

BPL

Written on Friday, 08 October 2010 08:49

(The Racing Insider will give his preview, and review, of each of the big days of the Spring Carnival.) 

Caulfield Guineas Day is one of the premier days on the Australian racing calendar. Featuring three Group One races, bolstered by a stunning support card, it is arguably second only to Victoria Derby Day in terms of racing quality and prestige.

The Guineas, a 1600M event for 3YOs has been run at Caulfield since its inception in 1881 when Wheater claimed the inaugural event, although it was briefly run at Flemington during World War II when the military occupied Caulfield Racecourse.

The Guineas has become a stallion-making race with recent champions; Redoute's Choice, Show A Heart and Lonhro heading a list of winners who have had immense success in the breeding barn. Last year's winner, Starspangledbanner, went on to win at Royal Ascot earlier this year while we will see 2008 Champion, Whobegotyou, line up in another feature race on Saturday.

The other Group One Races on the day are the Toorak Handicap over a mile, won brilliantly last year by the Bart Cummings trained Allez Wonder who will shoot for back-to-back victories, and the Yalumba Stakes (2000M) which will be a key prelude to this year's WFA Cox Plate later this month.

Saturday's meeting will also feature the return to racing of Peter Moody's unbeaten mare Black Caviar, who is returning from an injury enforced layoff. She has been an excitement machine in four breathtaking wins to date and tuned up for her first-up tilt with a recent Cranbourne trial victory. 

 It is going to be a cracking day's racing, so it's time to tear the form to shreds and find a few winners.

The key to the 2010 Caulfield Guineas could well be riding tactics as the race looks to be light on for early speed. Run For Levi and Intencion look the most likely leaders with the bolter, Fort Chauvel also capable of injecting some pace into the event. Both Run For Levi and Intencion have claims in the race at big each way odds and should definitely be considered in multiple bets.

Toorak Toff ($4.60) has been prominent in Caulfield Guineas betting since his brilliant first-up win in the Vain Stakes and this weekend could give trainer, Rick Hore-Lacy his first win in the race since champion sire, Redoute's Choice. The appealing factor of Toorak Toff going into Saturday's race is a versatile racing style and with high-class hoop Damien Oliver on his back, he will get every chance in running.

Rick Hore-Lacy had this to say after drawing barrier eight: "There are seven better ones but I think Ollie should get some cover from there one off the fence. I don't think it's such a bad barrier."

Sydneysider, Ilovethiscity ($4.60), from the in-form Graeme Begg camp, was absolutely outstanding in winning the Spring Stakes at Newcastle when he defied a drastic on pace bias to circle the field and demoralise a handy bunch of horses. Arguably unlucky not the run down Toorak Toff in the Group One Golden Rose last month, Ilovethiscity possesses a lethal turn of foot and was emphatic in his work at Caulfield on Tuesday. Provided there is a solid tempo in the race, this son of Magic Albert will be steaming to line.

Rekindled Interest ($7.50) has his hoof on the till after reeling off tremendous closing sectionals to finish fifth in the 1400M Guineas Prelude. The colt, son of former winner Redoute's Choice, lacks gate speed and will settle at the rear of the field, but provided he can balance up and get clear galloping room in the straight he is capable of figuring in the finish.

It is set to be another cracking edition of the Guineas, and there are a host of chances, but to my eye Toorak Toff looks the class horse and, drawn to get the ideal run, he will be mighty hard to topple.

The Yalumba Stakes (2000M) sees only six acceptances but promises a mouth-watering clash between the Cox Plate favourites So You Think and Whobegotyou.

Trainer, Bart Cummings, has done a magnificent job with So You Think ($1.50) who missed the Autumn Carnival owing to an injury. The imposing son of High Chaparral could not have been more impressive in winning the Memsie and Underwood Stakes at his two starts this campaign and is right on track to claim his second Cox Plate in ten career starts later this month. So You Think has the ability to lead or take a sit during his races and jockey, Steven Arnold, is merely atop the horse to ensure he carries the allotted weight.

Whobegotyou ($2.90), as mentioned, is no stranger to success on Guineas Day and was a brilliant winner of the feature 3YO mile race in 2008. Since that win the Street Cry gelding has burnt punters often, amassing nine second placings from 23 career starts, however, his last start victory in the Feehan Stakes was utterly emphatic. This campaign, trainer Mark Kavanagh, has this son of Street Cry racing at a career peak and he looks to be the only horse in the Country capable of running down So You Think.

Barring any serious incident the favourites should run the quinella, although, I will go against the grain and predict an upset victory to Whobegotyou. Bart Cummings' other runner, Empires Choice, who I have highlighted twice in the Monday review, looks capable of finishing third on the back of two very solid performances this campaign.

Gai Waterhouse's star mare, More Joyous ($2.20), heads the weights with 58kg in the third Group One for the day, The Toorak Handicap over 1600M. In spite of being absolutely outstanding this preparation, and in fact, throughout her whole career, I am willing to take her on this weekend. The daughter of brilliant broodmare, Sunday Joy, she will race anti-clockwise for the first time this weekend and to boot, the Toorak Handicap is a graveyard for horses carrying higher weights.

Lightly raced mare, Response ($9.50), has taken all before her this campaign and with a little luck could have won all three of her runs. She is such an adaptable horse, as emphasised last start when she was able to defy the normal run-on style of racing and lead the field from go to woe in the Group One Rupert Clarke Stakes. She is drawn ideally in the middle of the line and jockey, Craig Williams, will have every opportunity to position the mare exactly where he wants.

Allez Wonder ($26) was a surprise winner of this race last year when sent around a despised 40/1 outsider, but based on her first up run, lightning could strike twice this weekend.  In spite of winning this race last year the Bart Cummings mare is well off at the weight with just 53.5kg on her back, 1.5kg more than she won with last year. After a poor Autumn campaign in Sydney, Allez Wonder showed a glimpse of form when making late ground first-up at Caulfield and it would be remiss of punters to leave her out of calculations.

Other chances in a near capacity field include: Chasm (who was sensational at Newcastle and very good at Flemington, and runners coming through the Gilgai Stakes have a good record in this race), Drumbeats (would have started favourite in the Epsom so must come under consideration here) and Spacecraft (a dominant winner of his past three outings - I am just concerned he is well up in class and not well weighted).

The Herbert Power Stakes (2400M) is the last hope for desperate Caulfield Cup hopefuls to qualify for next weekend's feature, and this year sees three outstanding staying prospects greeting the starter. Precedence ($2.90), Moudre ($2.80), and Linton ($4) are all capable of running a big race in the Cup, maybe even winning, but just to get a start in the Cup they need to first claim victory on Saturday. 

Moudre fell victim to a breakneck speed and simply got too far back in the 2000M Naturalism Stakes last start, but still rattled home to finish a close up, and arguably unlucky, second. Given there is so much on the line on Saturday, Craig Williams will not let the leaders out of his sight and with his devastating turn of foot I can see Moudre sweeping past his rivals over the concluding stages.

The Schillachi Stakes (1200M) will see the return of the most exciting sprinting mare in the Country, Black Caviar ($1.75). Bound for a clash with boom sprinter Hay List later in the Spring, the Peter Moody trained mare is returning from an injury layoff, but if she races anywhere near her peak she will be competitive on Saturday.

Blue Diamond winner, Star Witness ($6) looks a magnificent sprinting prospect, an athletic ball of muscle, and he has come on in leaps and bounds during his freshen up. If Black Caviar is slightly off her game, then Star Witness will leave her standing over the concluding stages, and he should represent great value in the race.

Best Bets

Race 1 Mac Chois has travelled to Melbourne after a brilliant midweek win at Warwick Farm recently. It is a big step up in grade for this Graeme Begg trained gelding but he is such an impressive looking animal who oozes classes and potential. He can put this field away and get the day off to a winning start.

Race 8 Military Rose was forced wide at Moonee Valley and showed she was back to her best with a fighting third. In spite of Lone Rock and Jesse's Girl beating her home last start I think the 2010 Magic Millions winner can turn the tables on Saturday and return to the winners circle for the first time since March. 

Value Bets

Race 2 Tagus resumed recently at Randwick and ran stone motherless last - but it was a brilliant run. The son of Encosta De Lago was jog-trotting as they came around the home turn before being held up the entire length of the straight and going to the line under a stranglehold. Tagus is a winner second up and will benefit from a strong tempo set by Jungle Ruler, Drenalin, Gold In Dubai and Amaethon. He looks a tremendous each-way betting proposition.

Race 4 Star Witness hasn't run since the 14th August when narrowly losing to Toorak Toff, but he has a brilliant sprinters conformation and has been working well during his break. Drawing barrier one is not ideal, as he will likely position up around midfield, but if Nick Hall can get him clear galloping room in the straight he can definitely figure prominently in the finish.

Guineas Tip

I am sticking with Toorak Toff in the race owing to his versatility and bulletproof nature. Damien Oliver will give the horse every chance from the ideal barrier draw and it is hard to see the backmarkers going past him. Intencion probably benefits from the run of the race on Saturday and he could figure in the finish at big odds, while Run For Levi has a place claim. It is an open race, and I am loathed to leave out both Ilovethiscity and Rekindled Interest, horses I have been following right through their preparations, but I think this race is ideally suited to Toorak Toff.

Toorak Handicap Tip

Very keen to take on More Joyous as mentioned and think any of Allez Wonder, Chasm or Response will be the winner. Look to value in this race, but if my arm were twisted I would tip Response just one top, but all three have fantastic chances. Given the larger field I would consider a Trifecta on the race:

1st - 9,10,11

2nd - 1,2,9,10,11

3rd - 1,2,5,7,9,10,11,14,15

Quaddie

Leg 1 Looks to be an open start and I will be going wide with Nos: 1,2,7,9,10,11,14,15

Leg 2 It is a very even Guineas field but I have narrowed the chances to 1,2,6,13,14

Leg 3 Looks to be a relatively skinny race and 1 and 3 look the winning chances

Leg 4 Another race with plenty of hopes: Nos 1,4,5,7,8,15 all have chances.

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