It's funny how one result can change the way punters look at a race.

Had Viewed not won last year's BMW Caulfield Cup, it's unlikely Shocking would have been considered a genuine winning chance in this Saturday's $2.5 million Group 1.

Putting a line through him would have nothing to do with his form rather that history said the defending Melbourne Cup champion simply wasn't a factor in the spring carnival's other major handicap.

Whether it was that the 2400 metres was too short, the extra weight they had to carry taking its toll or simply being 17 days away from peaking again, Melbourne Cup winners had an abysmal record.

Before Viewed, Makybe Diva, who was beaten a head by Elvstroem in 2004, is the only Melbourne Cup winner to come back and place in the following season's Caulfield Cup since Hyperno, also second, in 1980.

You had to go all the way back to Rising Fast, in 1955, to find the last Melbourne Cup winner to come back and win the Caulfield Cup the following year.

But after Viewed bucked the trend as a $13 chance last year, Mark Kavanagh's incumbent Melbourne Cup champion is being talked up as one of the horses to beat in this year's race.

But it's with good reason as the five-year-old son of Street Cry boasts the formline that has proven the blueprint for recent Caulfield Cup success.

After resuming with an adequate seventh in the Liston Stakes, he confirmed his love affair with Flemington with a Makybe Diva Stakes win, before a fine fifth to So You Think in the Underwood when he didn't get clear until around 100m from home.

He encountered a similarly cramped passage at his most recent outing, when a narrow second to Zipping in the Turnbull Stakes - the first time he's been beaten at Flemington.

Significantly, Elvstroem, Mummify (2003), Diatribe (2000) and Sky Heights (1999) also took in those four races in their Caulfield Cup-winning seasons.

In addition, Northerly ran in the Makybe Diva, Underwood and Turnbull - he won them all - on the way to Caulfield Cup glory in 2002, while Viewed's two final pre-Caulfield Cup lead-ups were in the Underwood and the Turnbull.

Roughie Zavite, who ran a distant last in the Turnbull, is the only other horse in this year's Caulfield Cup to have got to the race via those four lead-ups.

Kavanagh said having those things in his favour was nice, but the most important thing was that Shocking is in fine shape, which he thinks he is.

"I'm not concerned about history or statistics, I'm just concerned about getting my horse right and arriving on the track in top fettle for the day," Kavanagh said.

"It hasn't been a perfect preparation because he hasn't won every race, but where we are right now, he's just getting better and better each time and I'm very, very happy with his position."

Those worried about him carrying the 57kg top weight shouldn't be too concerned, either, with the Caulfield Cup a much kinder race for topweights than the Melbourne Cup.

Makybe Diva broke a half a century-long drought when she carried No 1 to victory in her third Melbourne Cup, but three topweights have won the Caulfield Cup in the past 11 years alone: Sky Heights, Northerly and Viewed.

Compare the things Shocking has in his favour to some of what his key rivals are up against and Shocking fans would be on good terms with themselves.

Alcopop shot to joint favouritism with Metal Bender after his second to So You Think in last Saturday's Yalumba Stakes, but while the Yalumba was a good guide in the 1990s, supplying four winners, only two have come that way this millennium and none since 2003.

He also has the outside gate to contend with in the 18-horse field. Since 1992, only five horses have started from a double-digit barrier and none wider than barrier 13.

Shocking drew gate 12 but will come into nine if the emergencies don't get a run, while Metal Bender drew gate two but will start from one if second emergency Red Ruler doesn't start.

But Metal Bender, who finished on the heels of the placegetters when luckless in the Turnbull, is faced with the daunting task of needing to score his maiden 2400m win in the Caulfield Cup.

Not since Northerly has a horse who hadn't previously won over at least 2400m won the Caulfield Cup.

Faint Perfume is striving to become the first Victoria Oaks winner to come back and win the Caulfield Cup at four since Light Fingers in 1965. Seven have tried in the past 30 years and none have placed.

Bart Cummings' other four-year-old mare, Dariana, will join the incomparable Tulloch (1957) as the only Queensland Derby winner to win the Caulfield Cup in the same year if successful.

The horse that history decrees could be the hardest to beat for Shocking is Herculian Prince.

The Gai Waterhouse-trained gelding won the Metropolitan Handicap at his most recent outing and eight of the past 12 Caulfield Cup winners have been last-start winners.

Two of those were Metrop winners Railings (2005) and Tawqeet (2006), who, interestingly, are the last two winners of Sydney's feature spring staying test to run at Caulfield.

The Metropolitan wasn't win in 2007 due to Equine Influenza and the past two winners - Newport and Speed Gifted - didn't take their place.

Herculian Prince has also drawn well in six, but will come into three if the emergencies aren't required.