Written on Friday, 15 October 2010 10:21
It's Grand Final time for the Melbourne Racing Club this weekend with the running of the time-honoured BMW Caulfield Cup run over 2400M. Now the richest mile-and-a-half handicap in the world, the race has become a highlight on the Australian and international racing stage and the honour roll is littered with champions of the turf.
Past champions include Australian racing Hall of Fame legends in Tobin Bronze and Tulloch, champion sire Galileo and the only dead heaters in the race, Blue Book and Aborigine, who shared the spoils in 1910.
In recent years, the Caulfield Cup has been targeted by international trainers with Taufan's Melody and All The Good travelling across the globe to win the race, and a number of other runners figuring in the finish. This year, the International contingent are well represented with the powerful Luca Cumani stable brining out French star, Manighar, who will be joined at the barriers by Hong Kong's Mr Medici and Japan's Tokai Trick.
Not surprisingly master trainer, Bart Cummings, heads all comers with seven victories in the Caulfield Cup, and he will be out for back-to-back wins after Viewed capped off a brilliant 12 months by sweeping to victory last year. Cummings is well represented this year with two mares, Dariana and Faint Perfume, who are both very highly fancied.
Champion jockey, Scobie Breasley, heads a long list of jockeys to have won the race on multiple occasions with five victories; however, in the 1990s Damien Oliver made the race his own with four victories in eight years. On Saturday, Oliver will be out to end a drought of race wins as he saddles up Manighar.
The Caulfield Cup has not always been kind to favourites with seven double figure winners over the past 20 years, with International winners, Taufan's Melody and All The Good both winning at 50/1. In 2007, the Mark Kavanagh-trained Maldivian was set to start the shortest priced favourite is 40 years before hitting his head on the barrier stall and being dramatically scratched as blood poured from a gash in his head.
As always the Caulfield Cup is supported by a strong card of racing, highlighted by the 2000M Norman Robinson Stakes for 3YOs, a key lead up to the Victoria Derby in two weeks time. This year will see the current Derby favourite and NSW visitor, Retrieve, tackle a high class field including the beautifully related Altius and Rekindled Interest who was unlucky in a very promising Guineas run last start.
This week Melbourne has been lashed with wild weather and persistent rain, so with a heavy track expected for Saturday I have honed in on runners who relish the softer going and after finding a couple of winners on Wednesday I am confident of a successful Cup Day.
The Caulfield Cup, where does one start? Currently the market is headed by Herculian Prince, Shocking and Metal Bender, but it is 5/1 the field and there are a host of chances. Herculian Prince will become the third horse in six years to complete the Metropolitan Hcp/Caulfield Cup double if he can win on Saturday, and provide Gai Waterhouse her first win in the race, whilst Shocking is attempting to repeat the feats of Viewed, who won last year's Caulfield Cup after winning the Melbourne Cup the previous year.
I was keen on the chances of Monaco Consul ($31) in the Turnbull Stakes three weeks ago, and I think I went off a run early. That day, the Michael Moroney trained son of High Chaparral hung in badly during the race before being held up when racing on the worst part of the track. Boasting a Group One win on the heavy going in Sydney last year, I think a fully fit Monaco Consul is ready to run the race of his life and he represents great value at $31.
Sydney veteran, Triple Honour ($31), has been flying under the radar this campaign but will drop 5kg on his past four runs with the transition from WFA to Handicap this weekend. A winner over 2200M in the Eagle Farm Cup during the Winter and proven wet-tracker, the Chris Waller gelding looks to have a great chance of providing an upset on Saturday.
Shocking ($6.50) has been dubbed a Flemington specialist by many media outlets, however, to my eye that view is a little naive and to dismiss this horse on Saturday would be most unwise. Trained by Mark Kavanagh, who has dominated the last few Spring Carnivals, Shocking will relish the soft going and step up to 2400M and, with even luck, will figure prominently in the finish.
In a race full of staying talent I think other chances include; Alcopop (unfortunately drawn the car park, but has been ticking along beautifully this campaign and ran sensationally in last week's Underwood Stakes), Faint Perfume (has had a similar campaign to Viewed last year and benefits from the Bart Cummings polish) and Manighar (who has mixed it with the best in France and has the benefit of champion jockey, Damien Oliver, in the pigskin).
As mentioned, the Norman Robinson Stakes is a key prelude to the Derby, and this year the race could end a long drought of Derby winners to come through the 2000M event.
Rekindled Interest ($4.40) has been frustrating backers and delighting onlookers with a string of brilliant runs this campaign, and on Saturday he gets his chance to enter the winners circle as he stretches out to an ideal distance. Throughout this Spring Carnival I have labelled this son of Redoute's Choice an ideal Derby candidate, and this weekend he will justify those lofty expectations with a long overdue win.
Last start Group One runner-up Retrieve ($2.60) looks the main danger to Rekindled Interest. He stretched out to 2000M for the first time in the Spring Champion Stakes and looks a tremendous staying prospect.
Two absolutely magnificently bred colts appear the other chances in the race. Altius, a half to champions Haradsun and Elvstroem, has shown tremendous ability, while still being very green throughout his short career, while Shadowofexcellence, a half brother to star mare Makybe Diva, has looked every bit a stayer in his two runs to date.
Hot Danish ($3.20) will be out to reclaim her mantle as Sydney's best mare, in the Tristarc Stakes (1400M) after More Joyous' stunning win in last week's Toorak Handicap. Hot Danish is a winner of 16 of her 27 starts to date and has delighted Sydney crowds with two stunning victories this campaign. Trained by Les Bridge at Randwick, this daughter of Derby winner Nothin' Leica Dane will again lump the top weight (57.5kg), as she has become accustomed to, and will be out to atone for her second place in this race last year. However, her trainer commented during the week, "... if the track became a bog and we didn't run on Saturday, we could switch her back to the sprint (Patinack Farm Classic on the final day of the Melbourne Cup carnival)." So with the weather continuing to deteriorate there's every chance the star mare won't greet the starter.
Should she start, however, a host of in-form mares will attempt to spoil the Hot Danish party on the weekend; first up winner Palacio De Cristal, the very consistent No Evidence Needed and the very smart up and comer in Aloha from the Mick Price stable.
After all but writing off three champions last weekend I have learnt my lesson and will not be declaring an upset this weekend, but, if there were to be one, then I fancy it might come in the form of Culminate ($20), who relishes the softer tracks and has a very strong second-up record. If Hot Danish were to start a silly price, then an each way ticket on this Darren Weir trained ex-New Zealand mare might be the way to go. But, as I have clearly stated, I will not be writing off any champions this weekend, and a champion Hot Danish is!
The Perri Cutten Sprint (1100M) is another highlight on the card with a host of up and coming sprint stars: Definitely Ready, Dubleanny, Soul and Dissolved set to tackle the globetrotting Eagle Falls, who gallantly chased home Hay List last start. The race looks very open on paper, however, with the track deteriorating to a heavy surface I would promote the chances of Dubleanny and Soul who are proven mudlarks.
The Racing Insider Play of the Day
Race 4 Rekindled Interest ($4.40). There looks to be a relatively solid tempo headed by Black Storm in the Norman Robinson, which will suit Rekindled Interest. The 2000M looks ideal at this stage of his preparation and his two wet track runs have been full of merit, in spite of being unplaced. I really think we are going to see the best of this horse on Saturday and he should be winning this on the way to the Derby in a fortnight.
Best Bets
Race 1 Enzed Girl ($9) has shown a liking for wet tracks in her short career to date, and has struck an ideal race on Saturday. Jockey, Glen Boss, can position Enzed Girl just behind the speed from an inside draw and once she gets clear galloping room can charge to the line.
Race 2 Skilled ($2.50) was brilliant in the Guineas prelude behind subsequent Caulfield Guineas winner, Anacheeva. At his only start on a wet track this son of Commands was a dominant winner of the Baillieu Stakes at Rosehill in the Autumn and he looks perfectly suited to return to the winners' circle on Saturday.
Value Bets
Race 9 Culminate ($20). As I mentioned I will not be potting Hot Danish this week, however, Culminate is a terrific each-way bet in the Tristarc Stakes at $18. She was a touch unlucky not to finish closer first up at Flemington and will relish the soft track on Saturday.
Race 7 Zantelagh ($11) will hopefully gain a start in the David Jones Cup, and if she does will give the race a mighty shake. She was a brilliant winner at Caulfield last start when held up in the straight before bursting clear to claim victory in the shadows of the post. I am willing to forgive her wet track runs to date as there have been excuses, and the extra 200M on Saturday is only going to enhance her chances. She is a terrific each-way betting proposition in what looks a weaker staying race.
Blackbookers
There is a number of Racing Insider blackbookers going around on Saturday but probably the two who look most likely to figure in the finish are Woorim and All Silent in The Betfair Stakes (Race 6).
Caulfield Cup
It is an open Caulfield Cup and I will be having each way bets on Monaco Consul and Triple Honour, which are both around $31 at the moment. Both horses have been flying under the radar this campaign and look set to peak this weekend. Of the favourites, Shocking looks the main danger and his campaign this time in has been flawless, while Faint Perfume should come under serious consideration. (Zabrasive and Master O'Reilly were scratched from the race on Friday.)
Nailing a TRIFECTA on a big race like the Caulfield Cup is the shortest route to caviar and French Champagne, and I would be attacking like this:
1st - 1,9,10,17
2nd - 1,9,10,13,17
3rd - 1,3,7,9,10,12,13,15,17,18
Quaddie
The only way to tackle the quaddie this week is to go wide, and if you can afford it I would put even more runners in, with the likelihood of a heavy track there is every chance of a big upset.
Leg 1 - 1,5,8,19
Leg 2 - 1,2,7,9,10,13,17,18
Leg 3 - 1,2,3,5,8,14
Leg 4 - 3,4,10,20
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