Written on Thursday, 21 October 2010 21:47
(BPL's RACING INSIDER will give his preview and review of all the major meetings throughout the Spring Carnival.)
The Cox Plate has certainly earned its place as the Weight For Age Championship of Australasia since its first running back in 1922 and is considered a handpicked race showcasing the best talent from Australia, and indeed the world.
This weekend's Plate is tainted with sadness and it would be remiss not to acknowledge the wonderful racetrack feats of Stathi Katsidis who tragically passed away this week. Katsidis has been a leading Queensland, and for that matter Australian, jockey for some time now and was due to ride Shoot Out in Saturday's feature race. Katsidis claimed a number of major race scalps across the eastern seaboard during his stellar and decorated career and his sudden passing is a tragic blow to the racing industry. The thoughts of the racing fraternity and community at large will no doubt be with the Katsidis family during this difficult time and, personally, I convey my sincerest condolences.
The Cox Plate is a true test of horse stamina and WFA racing is considered the fairest contest from a purist's perspective, with horses being allotted their handicap according to age and sex, rather than their previous performances. For this reason it is often concluded, "the best horse has won" rather than commentators saying, "the best handicapped horse has won."
Personally, I have shorter racing history than this great 2040M race held around the tight-turning cauldron that is Moonee Valley, but the race has delivered me some unforgettable moments. Without a doubt the most incredible battle of horse power I have witnessed was Sunline, Northerly and Viscount in an incredibly stirring tussle, going stride for stride to the line in the 2001 Cox Plate.
In the annals of history, the Cox Plate is dominated by one name, the Tommy Smith-trained Kingston Town. Bred by his owner, David Hains, the son of Bletchingly is the only horse to win the race three times, making race caller Bill Collins eat his words in the 1982 Cox Plate when he famously declared "Kingston Town can't win." The champ did indeed win, for the third time, and his feats have since been recognised when named an inaugural member of the Australian Racing Hall of Fame.
I have only seen Kingston Town on videotapes, but I have had the pleasure of seeing the modern day champion, So You Think, race in the flesh and it is amazing the emotion he stirs up in racing spectators and commentators alike. Australian racing needs champions, heroes and feel-good stories, and administrators need these champions to keep winning at a time when crowds at the races are diminishing as off-course betting activity increases.
To my astonishment, in speaking with several well-respected racing journalists and industry figures of late, many believe that when So You Think wins the Cox Plate, and potentially the Melbourne Cup 10 days later, then he will be anointed as the new Kingston Town. These comments, from very respected people in the racing fraternity, are staggering to a young upstart such as myself and suggest that we could - could - see the best horse in half a century in action at the Valley on Saturday.
Anyway, enough of the promotion and hype building, no racing fan needs to be told just how big a day the 2010 Cox Plate will be, it's time to find a few winners and build a bank before the marathon four-day carnival ahead.
The Cox Plate is simply a one-act affair. Sportsbet have already paid out punters who have backed So You Think ($1.45), and it won't be long before the other agencies are forced to pay out punters who were fortunate to back this champion at much better odds than those available this weekend.
This Bart Cummings-trained son of High Chaparral is, for all intents and purposes, an absolute moral. He has taken all before him in an incredible nine-start career to date, and his progression this campaign has been outstanding, demolishing high class Group One fields at his leisure. Barring an unthinkable incident or incredible bad luck, So You Think will stroll to his second Cox Plate and could go on to claim the Melbourne Cup, if Bart decides to head that way.
In any other year, Gai Waterhouse's brilliant mare, More Joyous ($7.50) would start a raging favourite. She has had a flawless preparation and it is hard to ignore winning form, eight straight wins in fact, but to my eye she is a great horse who is not in the same postcode as So You Think. No horse in Australia is.
More Joyous has every chance of running second on Saturday, and she will probably fight for that place with Zipping ($16), who was brilliant in winning the Turnbull Stakes, and Whobegotyou ($16) who will improve dramatically back at Moonee Valley.
It pleases me to see black booker, Captain Sonador ($101), who was highlighted when returning in a lowly Brisbane Handicap, make it to the Cox Plate and snagging the Epsom Handicap along the way. The captain is probably fighting out of his weight division on Saturday, but should get every chance with Glen Boss aboard and hopefully he can figure amongst the first four.
I have learnt not to tip against a champion, and in Australian racing there is no better horse over middle distances than So You Think, he will do as he pleases on Saturday and no doubt draw superlatives from onlookers and racing commentators alike. To those who backed him earlier on this carnival, I salute you, and please enjoy the spoils, but for punters like myself the $1.45 on offer is not overly appealing so multiples and all up bets appear the best way to make an earn out of So You Think.
If the Cox Plate is the main event, then the Schweppes Stakes is a very formidable undercard. It looks a battle of the mares with boom sprinter, Black Caviar, set to wrestle the best NSW has to offer in Hot Danish and Melito.
By my own admission I doubted Black Caviar's ($1.80) ability to return from an injury layoff in the same form as last campaign. True to form, she was not the same sprinter, she was better. The mare, trained by Peter Moody (and pictured above), did as she pleased at Caulfield and was nursed to the line by jockey Luke Nolen. It was a totally emphatic victory and she looks certain to continue her winning form this weekend.
The AAMI Vase is another feature on this brilliant days racing and, like the Norman Robinson Stakes last weekend and Geelong Derby Trial on Wednesday, it will determine the key players looking towards the Victoria Derby.
Rekindled Interest ($4.60) was the Racing Insider Play of the Day last weekend and I see no reason to jump ship. The son of Redoute's Choice has been unlucky, but outstanding this preparation and as I have mentioned ad nauseam he will show his true ability at 2000M and beyond. The Vase looks to have good speed with a large field set to greet the starter and provided jockey, Dwayne Dunn, can get Rekindled Interest rolling as they come to the school, then he will let down with a powerful sprint in the straight and overhaul the leaders.
The main danger appears to be Smokin Joey ($4.80), trained by Lee Freedman, who did a magnificent job to run sixth in the Caulfield Guineas after racing at the tail of the field and being forced very wide coming around the home turn. This son of Encosta De Lago has always given the impression of having above average staying ability and he will be very prominent in the finish this weekend.
Shadows In The Sun ($11) did a good job to win on Thousand Guineas day and looks an improving type and could be the blowout horse in the race if it were run at a slow tempo. From barrier 11 I expect Michael Walker to take this son of Dane Shadow to the front and if he got his own way then he might pinch a break turning for home.
The Cathay Pacific Airways Cup over 2500M is an opportunity for horses to fine tune their Melbourne Cup preparations and also gives unqualified horses a chance to sneak into the big race at the eleventh hour.
To my eye it looks a race in two between Bart Cummings' Precedence ($2.80) and one-time Caulfield Cup winner, Master O'Reilly ($6.50) trained by Danny O'Brien.
Precedence was sent out a short priced favourite in the Herbert Power at Caulfield two weeks ago but over-raced during the earlier stages and was then checked when going for a run over the final stretch. His previous win at Moonee Valley was dominant and he looks set to return to the winners' circle on Saturday.
Master O'Reilly certainly does not win out of turn, in fact he has not won since the 2007 Caulfield Cup, but he faces a significant drop in grade from recent Group One WFA racing. He looks to get a nice run in transit from barrier one and should be in the first six in running, and I think he will present some danger to Precedence over the concluding stages.
After a disappointing Caulfield Cup meeting the tables look set to turn in favour of Bart Cummings, as is so common at this time of year and hopefully there is a huge crowd on hand to witness the making of a champion. It will be a ripping day, and here are my thoughts on how tackle the card from a punting perspective:
The Racing Insider Play of the Day
Cox Plate / Schweppes Stakes. There is nothing novel in tipping So You Think to win the Cox Plate, however, I think the way to extrapolate value out of the Bart Cummings star is to back him all up into Black Caviar who will continue on her winning way in the Schweppes Stakes.
Best Bets
Race 6 Rekindled Interest. The trainer opted not to run on the bottomless pit that was Caulfield last weekend and in hindsight it could be a masterstroke leading up to the Victoria Derby. All things being equal this powerful colt looks capable of circling the field and reeling in the leaders in the straight to claim victory this weekend. It will be a long overdue win for those who have been backing Rekindled Interest, but I would suggest sticking to the bandwagon as this son of Redoute's Choice has a massive future ahead.
Race 7 Precedence had some excuses at Caulfield and I think the quality of Linton is a little above what he meets tomorrow. Bart has done a wonderful job with the son of Zabeel and the horse races very tractably and can either push forward or settle somewhere around midfield from the slightly awkward draw. If odds allow I would consider a small saver on Master O'Reilly and make these two horses prominent in any exotics.
Value Bets
Race 4 Snow Alert has had a little freshen up since running second in the Newcastle Cup, but Chris Waller has kept this horse up to the mark with a 1030M trial a fortnight ago. The Crystal Mile appears loaded with pace; Conquering, Poor Judge, Rockpecker, Gathering and The Sportsman are all capable of pushing forward and the race should be run at a very strong gallop. Snow Alert should sit midfield in the running line and has a brilliant record over the mile. I think he will be very strong over the concluding stages and looks a great each way bet at around $14.
Race 9 Moment In Time ran second in this race last year and put in a very nice run recently in the Murray Bridge Cup when coming from the tail of the field to run fifth. This horse should settle around midfield or just beyond, and with a solid speed up front can be finishing hard. She represents tremendous each way value.
Quaddie
First Leg: 3,4,5,7,11,14
Second Leg: 2,5,6,12
Third Leg: No need to go any wider than So You Think
Final Leg: Mares races...always tough: 1,3,4,5,6,8,15,16
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