Written on Thursday, 28 October 2010 22:07
The greatest week in Australian racing is upon us and it kicks off with AAMI Victoria Derby Day this Saturday. Flemington goes into carnival mode for the next week as Morning Suits and French Champagne are as common as Bintang Singlets and VB Cans, a place where fashion is as important as the ponies and where celebrities and socialites come to be seen.
The Derby race meeting has become the most prestigious and outstanding race day on the Australian calendar, and ranks right up there amongst the best single-day meetings in the world. There are four Group One races set down for decision with a very strong undercard featuring two Group Two and three Group Three events.
The feature event, the 2500M Victoria Derby for three year olds, dates back to 1855 when Rose Of May won the first edition of the race. Interestingly, in 1972 the race was changed to metric metres and run over 2400M, but this was quickly changed to 2500M the following year when it was decided the run into the first turn was too short.
Incredibly it was fillies that claimed the first three editions of the Victoria Derby, but since then the colts and geldings have taken over and the honour roll is a who's who of Australian racing champions including Phar Lap, Tulloch and Dulcify.
The Mackinnon and Lexus Stakes will provide a brilliant prelude to Tuesday's Melbourne Cup. Superstars Shocking and So You Think, will have their final hit out before the two mile classic while horses such as Moudre, Maluckyday and Linton will make a last ditch attempt just to get into the final field of twenty four. Come 6pm on Saturday evening we will know the makeup of the final field to compete for the richest purse in Australian racing history.
I could ramble on with superlatives about this race meeting till the cows come home, but history doesn't equate to financial gain, so it's time to get stuck into the form.
A pattern in recent Victoria Derbies is the betting market being dominated by one or two horses and then quickly dropping away, owing mainly to our breeding obsession with producing Golden Slipper winners and sprinting stars. This year is no exception with Rekindled Interest ($3.60) and Retrieve ($3.80) jostling for favouritism well clear of their nearest rival, Digital Fortress ($8.50).
I have been on the Rekindled Interest bandwagon for this race since his slashing run in the Danehill Stakes and after his dominant win last weekend in the Vase there is absolutely no way I will be jumping ship. Last start Dwayne Dunn was able to position the son of Redoute's Choice much closer to the speed, which shows how versatile a horse he is once over the staying journeys.
It is hard to predict how much speed there will be in a Derby, as all of these horses are attempting the 2500M for the first time but, with a tractable racing style, Rekindled Interest can adapt to whatever tempo eventuates on Saturday.
Retrieve dug deep and won at Caulfield but he really went to the bottom of the well that day on what was a bottomless track and I question his ability to make the required improvement to win this Derby.
The main danger and best roughie in the race is the Rick Hore-Lacy trained Perfect Pecs ($41) who looks an out and out staying prospect in the making. The biggest question mark over a number of runners in the Derby is their ability to run 2500M, but Perfect Pecs gives every indication he is going to appreciate the staying trip and at $41 represents tremendous value.
This year's edition of the Mackinnon Stakes features the reigning Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate champions and shapes as one of the most intriguing 2000M races held in quite some time.
The key runner is definitely So You Think ($1.65) who could be ridden a lot quieter this weekend in an attempt to prepare him for the 3200M of the Melbourne Cup. Based on his dominant Cox Plate win last weekend the Bart Cummings star looks a cut above this field over 2000M, however, a change in riding tactics coupled with only his second visit to Flemington could bring about his downfall this weekend and I would be very wary of taking short odds.
The likelihood of a softish track must be taken into consideration and with Ginga Dude and Rainbow Styling setting a strong tempo, I think Shocking ($6.50) could well zip past So You Think over the concluding stages. The Mark Kavanagh son of Street Cry relishes the wide open spaces of Flemington, boasting four wins from five starts at the track and should represent great value with the Cummings star set to jump a short priced favourite.
The NZ galloper Ginga Dude ($15) looks the most capable of causing a big boilover in the Mackinnon. At his first start in Australia, this Graeme Boyd-trained gelding was awesome after working hard early and then setting the pace through the middle stages before showing a dashing turn of foot in the home straight to win comfortably. At his last start in New Zealand, Ginga Dude ran second to the highly rated Wall Street and, although this is another step up in grade, he could give some cheek if given an easy time at the head of proceedings.
The Myer Classic is the third group one of the day held over 1600M for fillies and mares. Last year Typhoon Tracy (pictured, above) was electrifying when demolishing a high-class field and she will attempt back-to-back wins on Saturday (at $2.25). Although her winning strike rate has diminished this campaign she is still a high-class animal and the drop back to 1600M after a little freshen up should see her close to her best.
Thousand Guineas winner Yosei ($6) has opted to run in the Myer Classic over the more traditional Wakeful Stakes on her way to Thursday's Oaks, and she looks a weighted each way special. Glen Boss will waste down to 49kg to take the ride on this duel Group One wining filly and with an eight kilogram weight pull on Typhoon Tracy she will be right in the finish.
The Coolmore Stakes for three year olds over 1200M is the other Group One feature on Derby Day. Anyone who saw the work of Star Witness ($4.80) on Tuesday at Breakfast With The Stars will be backing this Danny O'Brien trained colt with a fully loaded gun. He was outstanding in an 800M jump out that featured Hay List, and to my eye his trial was more impressive than his more fancied opponent. There is little doubt Star Witness is better down the straight and he looks one of the better bets on the programme provided the track is not too wet.
Patinack Farm's Potions ($26) was desperately unlucky at just his second start on Thousand Guineas Day, much to my chagrin after making it one of the best bets on the day. In spite of her inexperience, there is little doubt this daughter of Encosta De Lago has an enormous future and her raw ability can see her being very competitive in this Group One event.
The Lexus Stakes (2500M) has gone from strength to strength over the past decade and now has an immense influence on the Melbourne Cup. This year sees a number of key Melbourne Cup runners desperately trying to qualify for Tuesday's big race and following in the footsteps of Shocking who completed the staying double last year.
The Robert Hickmott trained Linton ($5) looks a likely Melbourne Cup horse and is ideally placed on Saturday. Having shown huge staying potential throughout his short career, this grey son of Galileo has scarcely put a foot wrong this campaign and is only going to get better as the distances get longer. Jockey, Glen Boss, will give Linton the ideal run in transit from barrier five and will ensure his mount is given every chance to let down his exhilarating sprint in the home straight.
Owner, Lloyd Williams was critical of the handicapper this week after Precedence received a Melbourne Cup penalty he deemed far too high for his Moonee Valley Cup victory. However, Lloyd will have the last laugh when Linton wins on Saturday and races right into Melbourne Cup contention, potentially at the expense of Precedence.
The unknown factor in the Lexus is Maluckyday ($4.60) who comes to Flemington on the back of a dominant 4.3L win in the listed Tatts City Cup at Randwick two weeks ago. The Hawkes camp has taken their time with this 4YO son of Zabeel, but gets his chance to win through to a Melbourne Cup at just his eighth start this weekend. He will race handy to the speed and on the back of his breeding there is no doubting that he will stay all day and his one run on a rain affected track was a placing in the Group Two Tulloch Stakes in the Autumn.
The Salinger Stakes down the Flemington Straight Six is another highlight on this magnificent card and I am willing to forgive All Silent ($17) his Caulfield Cup Day flop. The jockey reported he did not handle the horrific track conditions that day, and this weekend he returns to his favourite course and distance and provided the forecast rain isn't too severe then expect a huge turnaround in form. Trained by Graeme Begg, this gelding has won four of his five starts at Flemington and turned in an incredible performance to come from last and win the Group One Patinack Farm Classic last Spring. His first up run in the Manikato Stakes behind Hay List was extremely good and he represents enormous value for a horse possessing a lethal turn of foot.
Derby Day has again brought together the best race card we have seen this year and I do hope the rain stays away as this has all the hallmarks of a truly magnificent race day. This nine-race programme is a punter's paradise and here is a snapshot of how I will be tackling the day.
Racing Insider Play of the Day
AAMI Victoria Derby, Rekindled Interest ($3.60) - There is no point deserting this horse after he finally broke through for a long overdue win in the AMI Vase last weekend. The win was emphatic and will have tuned the horse up nicely for this weekend's assignment. This Jim Conlan trained colt has a little "je ne sais quoi" about him, he exudes brilliance and I really think he will be wining the Derby this weekend. For those punters seeking ownership of a 100ft yacht moored in the Greek Islands then Perfect Pecs is the horse over the odds at 40/1, he will stay on all day and can be thereabouts at the end of the 2500M.
Best Bets
Coolmore Classic, Star Witness ($4.80) - This horse was enormous in his trial down the straight on Tuesday and would have shaded Hay List if pushed along by the jockey. There is no doubt in my mind that he is a much better horse at Flemington and provided the track remains on the drier side then he will come with one booming sprint down the crown and gobble up this classy field of 3YO sprinters.
Myer Classic, Yosei ($6.00) - I am willing to risk Typhoon Tracy in her attempt for back-to-back wins in the Myer and the little 3YO Filly, Yosei looks very well weighted against the older mares. She travelled beautifully over the mile in the Thousand Guineas and it was just a matter of time before she swept past the leaders and raced to victory. Glen Boss will make the 49kg weight allotted to Yosei on Saturday and she looks ideally placed to add another chapter to this rags to riches fairytale for her owner and breeder, John Pittard.
Lexus Stakes, Linton ($5) - Linton was desperately unlucky not to win the Cadbury Guineas in the Autumn, but after that race I earmarked him as a horse to back in the Melbourne Cup and I won't be jumping ship. This lovely grey son of the stayer producing sire, Galileo, has had the ideal Cups preparation and has improved in condition and performance with every start. He has to win on Saturday to qualify for Tuesday's Cup and give his owner, Lloyd Williams, an incredible three runners in the race, and I think he will.
AAMI Business Insurance Stakes, We're Gonna Rock ($5) - This Mark Kavanagh trained son of Fastnet Rock was outstanding, and a little luckless in the Toorak Handicap. There looks to be good speed in this 1400M Handicap with Jungle Ruler, Prince Braeman, Poor Judge and Rockpecker pushing forward, allowing Michael Rodd to position We're Gonna Rock in behind the speed. He is a slight concern on a very wet surface, and I would probably steer clear of him if that is the case, but if a decent track eventuates the he should send punter's home on a winning note.
Value Bets
Salinger Stakes, All Silent ($17) - Had he not started at Caulfield there is every chance he would be favourite for this race. Thankfully for us punters he did and will go around at about $17 this weekend. He is best on a good to dead surface, so hopefully that eventuates because he is more than capable of accounting for this field.
Carbine Club Stakes, Jalsah ($17) - David Hayes has gone for the blinkers with the 3YO filly and she should settle closer to the speed this week. At Caulfield she got back to last in a slowly run race and lost her position coming to the home turn, but she quickened nicely in the straight and hit the line nicely. I have followed this filly closely over the Spring and she has plenty of ability and this is not an overly strong race. Mr Chard looks the main danger and to my eye Skilled looks terrible value at $2.80. With a favourable weight pull on the two favourites I think Jalsah can give plenty of cheek and is a great each way betting proposition.
Quaddie (Selections are in order)
Leg 1 - AAMI Victoria Derby: 2,14,9,11,1
Leg 2 - Myer Classic: 12,3,2,11
Leg 3 - Seppelt Salinger Stakes: 2,4,12,6,8
Leg 4 - AAMI Business Insurance Stakes: 12,4,8,11,1
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