As forecasters predict a month's rain on Derby Day and the possibility of Noah and his Ark making an appearance on the Maribyrnong River, it is important to factor a potential heavy into any form analysis. There are a number of mudlarks running on Saturday who perform out of their skin on bog tracks and conversely a boatload of horses that get through the water like Eric The Eel.

Carbine Club Stakes

The favourites; Mr Chard and Skilled both appeared to get through the slop at Caulfield on Cup Day, but Get Out Of Town is definitely worth considering as he is two from two on the wet and also won a trial very nicely on a Heavy 10 at Cranbourne.

The Lexus Stakes

Purple is an absolute duck and her run at Caulfield was exceptional, while I doubt her ability to win this race on a dry track, she will come right into contention if the heavens open.

Wakeful Stakes

Hard to line up exactly how good these inexperienced 3YO fillies are going to be on different types of going, but Dizlago definitely improved out of sight when racing away on the Heavy 10 at Caulfield. Brazilian Pulse was an emphatic 7.5L winner on debut on a bottomless track at Ballarat and she will have no problem with a soft surface, however, Gai Waterhouse's Zutara is one filly I definitely consider a risk if the rain comes.

Coolmore Stud Stakes

Soul is one of the better wet-trackers of the day, and while I don't rate him a chance on top of the ground, he would be highly promoted if the track was heavy. He is two from two at Flemington on wet tracks and must have a 150 horsepower outboard Yamaha strapped to his hindquarters. Buffering and No Hesitation are also well suited in the wet but I have grave question marks over Star Witness if the track deteriorates too badly.

Mackinnon Stakes

Ginga Dude powered through the wet at Caulfield and looked as though he would be happy if the race was held down the Maribyrnong, he definitely comes right into contention on a heavy track. Descerado proved his worth by winning the Caulfiled Cup on the bog, while Shocking is definitely no duffer. So You Think won his only start on a slow track, but Faint Perfume and Kidnapped can definitely be forgotten about.

AAMI Victoria Derby

Not a lot to report here, I think the favourites will handle any surface with aplomb, although Retrieve has the runs on the board when it comes to victories on the mud. Roughie, Luckyimbarefoot's abilities appear to be about tenfold on slower going and he needs to come into consideration for multiples.

Myer Classic

Culminate was able to do the business on the heavy 10 at Caulfield and will be a massive chance if the conditions are repeated. Allez Wonder and Palacio De Cristal are both duffers on rain affected surfaces and expect Lovemelikearock to stay at home if it is raining, she doesn't like to get wet.

Salinger Stakes

Track conditions are vital for this Group Two sprint. All Silent refused to trot, let along gallop, at Caulfield and will need a good to dead surface to show his best on Saturday. Sydneysiders, Black Piranha and Dorf Command will also be highly suspect, but heavily promote both Dubleanny and Shellscrape who love the wet.

AAMI Business Insurance Stakes

Jungle Ruler will go straight to the front in this race and if we are dealing with a heavy track he will take a mountain of catching. Interestingly the Macau visitor, Good Control, has a perfect strike rate on slow tracks back home so he should show some improvement, mind you, he needs to otherwise his owners might struggle to pay for the plane trip home. Woorim and We're Gonna Rock are both legless on heavy surfaces and will struggle to figure in the finish.

Hopefully the rain stays away as this truly is the best day's racing in Australia, however, as punters we need to adapt to all track surfaces and if we do see the forecasted rain then the horses to back are Purple, Soul, Ginga Dude (each way), Shellscrape (each way) and Jungle Ruler in the last.