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The Inside Word on Oaks Day

BPL

BPL

Written on Wednesday, 03 November 2010 12:08

The French have raided our big race with the brilliant stallion, Americain, but the carnival now rolls on and it is time for Crown Oaks Day, or should that be Blokes Day? The VRC Carnival truly is one of the best in the world and the 100,000 plus crowd that will forego work to attend the races tomorrow demonstrates that.

First run in 1861, The Oaks is a 3YO Classic run over 2500M exclusively for fillies and has been won by some sensational horses over the journey, Light Fingers, Rose Of Kingston and brilliant 2008 winner, Samantha Miss, among them.

After The Racing Insider followers had a solid day on Tuesday it is time to keep the ball rolling and with big fields again on Thursday there is plenty of value on offer.

The 2010 Crown Oaks is one of the most competitive I can remember and there are a number of chances heading into Thursday's race. The Michael Moroney-trained Brazilian Pulse has shot to favouritism on the back of a brilliant win when sitting three wide the entire journey in Saturday's Wakeful Stakes, a traditional lead up to the Oaks.

Michael Moroney is always prevalent during the Spring Carnival and there is little doubt he has found a very talented filly in Brazilian Pulse. She has graduated from a seven length debut win in the heavy at Ballarat on debut to Oaks favouritism in just five starts. There is no doubt this daughter of Captain Rio has a huge future, however, she has had two gut busting runs in a row and I question her ability to perform at the highest level again this campaign.

At Breakfast With The Stars last Tuesday David Hayes was incredibly upbeat about the chances of his filly, Precious Lorraine. Hayes has endured a lean trot, especially by his own lofty standards, but I think this daughter of Encosta De Lago can turn the tables on Thursday.

Precious Lorraine turned her terrible form around last time out in the very competitive AAMI Vase when the blinkers went on and she was unlucky not to finish closer to the Victoria Derby winner, Lion Tamer.

Precious Lorraine will benefit from the fact she was relaxing at home on Saturday when her major competition was battling it out on a deteriorating track in the Wakeful Stakes and Myer Classic. She is the fresh horse on the scene and I expect her to acquit herself extremely well tomorrow.

The eye-catching run on Saturday was the Chris Waller trained Sasa who came from last to run a slashing fifth in the Wakeful. She has been in work for a while this campaign and has run a number of good races without winning but she looks ideally suited to the 2500M.

With very little time between race days it is time to get straight into the best bets for Thursday.

The Racing Insider Play of the Day

Race 5 - Dead End ($4)

This race is always a highlight on Oaks Day, traditional greys' race, and what a sight it is. Trained by Michael Moroney, who could be in for a big day, Dead End was outstanding when heavily backed on debut beating a subsequent winner in Riverina's Girl. It is a huge step up from maiden company to a feature city race, and I am generally loath to tip them, but this gelding looks an outstanding prospect and the 1400M will be ideal. By sire of the moment, High Chaparral who had four of his progeny race in the Melbourne Cup, Dead End looks to be a highly promising horse and is more than capable of winning again tomorrow.

Best Bets

Race 2 - Dorf Command ($7.50)

Dorf Command ran a bottler in the Salinger Stakes on Saturday on an unsuitably heavy track. The Sydneysider is much more adept on a Good to Dead surface which she will get tomorrow and from a wider draw I expect her to head to the grandstand side of the track. In what is a very open race, each way odds about this smart sprinter looks huge value.

Crown Oaks Precious Lorraine ($7.50)

Precious Lorraine was desperately unlucky not to finish closer in the AAMI Vase and as already mentioned the race provided the emphatic Derby winner, Lion Tamer. The addition of the blinkers were the key in that race and from barrier seven I don't see her getting as far back as she has in recent starts.

Going back to the Autumn this filly was a brilliant winner of the Gibson Carmichael Stakes at Flemington over Mr Chard, who was so impressive in winning on Derby Day, and she really showed a liking to the open spaces that day. The 2500M will not pose a danger to Precious Lorraine as it might to some of her rivals and she will be mighty hard to hold out of the concluding stages.

The major dangers in the Oaks, and key multiple players, are Brazilian Pulse who was excellent in winning the Wakeful on Saturday and Sasa who showed a strong turn of foot in that same race and will definitely be suited to the 2500M. The best roughie in the race appears to be Maraseem ($31) who was a little unlucky not to finish closer on Saturday and looks right on track for tomorrow's race, she is capable of causing a boilover.

Race 8 Varena Miss ($7.50)

Varena Miss incredible in winning at Caulfield and can go on with the job tomorrow. This very smart daughter of Redoute's Choice should be unbeaten in her short career, she was desperately unlucky on debut at Sandown. Tomorrow, drawn towards the outside should be a bonus down the straight and I think with clear galloping room over the concluding stages she can run over the top of a tiring Avenue.

Value Bets

Race 1 King Of Mountains ($15)

Simply didn't handle the worsening track at Caulfield on Thousand Guineas day, but was super impressive when heavily backed in a Sandown mid-weeker the start before that. There looks to be a solid tempo in this race with The Big Steel, Texan Warney, Viacelo (from a wide gate) and Hood all pushing forward and this should allow Dunn to position King Of Mountains in an advantageous midfield spot, just behind the speed.

This David Hayes trained son of Fastnet Rock had form around the smart Zantelagh and Red Colossus in the Autumn and his racing style suggests to me that the wide open spaces of Flemington will be ideal. In an open race, I will be backing King of Mountains each way and playing him in quinellas and trifectas with the other main hopes: Vesper, Cosmocrat, Work The Room and Cyclone Al.

Race 4 Parriwi ($10)

Was excellent in the Group One Coolmore Stakes on Saturday and is definitely dropping back in grade tomorrow. Trained by Kris Lees in Sydney, this daughter of Mossman has amassed an impeccable record in her short career to date, being in the money six of her nine starts, and this campaign she has measured up in top company. The likelihood of a good racing surface will only further enhance Parriwi's chances tomorrow and she represents tremendous each way value in a very open race.

Quaddie

First Leg - 2,5,6,7,11

Second Leg - 2,3,5,6,8,9,15

Third Leg - 1,3,7,8,9,17

Last Leg - 7,8

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