The Darley-owned Sepoy seems to have a vice-like grip on the pre-post betting for this year's $3.5million Golden Slipper at Rosehill even a month before the world's richest two-year-old race is decided.

Which prompts the question, how short will he start? TAB Fixed Odds operators are predicting odds-on.

So far only two Slipper winners have been "in the red" - Todman at 1/6 in 1957 for the inaugural race and Sky High (4/7) in 1960.

Other short-priced winners have been even money for Reisling (1965), Bounding Away (5/4 in 1986) and Toy Show (2/1 in 1975).

Now we all know there are lies, damn lies and statistics but you have to admit that the dearth of short-priced winners is somewhat ominous. And constantly I have been haunted by those prophetic words of wisdom: "Never bet odds-on and never run up stairs".

In short, the message from the age-old adage is that both might give you a heart attack.

At the risk of being labeled a purveyor of doom, I am not conceding that Sepoy is ready to join death and taxes as the only certainties in life.

The Queanbeyan speed machine, Karuta Queen, has hardly put a hoof wrong in her lead up and remains unbeaten. The $9 Fixed Odds, to me, remains appealing.

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WHEN weights were released earlier this week for the Newmarket Handicap at Flemington on Saturday week, there was some excitement over the weight advantage afforded to Hay List (pictured above) at the expense of the brilliant Black Caviar.

On the weights the two carried under the weight-for-age conditions of the Lightning Stakes, Hay List will engage Black Caviar on 3.5 kilos better terms.

Yes, I know that weight will stop a train. However, Black Caviar is some train and the ease of her accounting for Hay List at their latest meeting suggests that the 3.5 kilos may not be sufficient to reverse the placings.

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THERE has been some conjecture since last Saturday when trainer Chris Waller had five of the seven starters in the first race, a 2400 metre Benchmark 80 event. Not surprisingly the Waller horses were dominant and including the winner, Telesmon, his horses filled three of the first four.

It is hard to justify complaining about the numerical strength of Waller in the race. At this stage his stable is blessed with horses capable of running 2400 metres.

Years ago there were rumblings that Tommy Smith should be restricted in the number of starters he had in individual races. Thankfully it never eventuated.

In the Waller case on Saturday the horses were owned by different interests.

Good luck to him. Who knows, one day he may have every runner in the same race.

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DISQUALIFIED jockey Peter Robl recently lost his appeal against a 12 month penalty for having been found guilty of betting.

To me, disqualification for 12 months seems particularly harsh. This is especially the case in view of the appeals panel rejecting Robl's plea to have the penalty reduced from disqualification to suspension, so he could continue riding track work. (A disqualification prohibits a person from entering a racetrack or stables).

The overall harshness of the penalty is illustrated by the fact that jockeys found guilty of that long-winded rule of not having placed his mount in the best possible position - a charge which is basically saying it wasn't trying to win -  would be outed for less than 12 months.

Of course, the rules of racing prohibit jockeys from betting - but, in the Robl and Blake Shinn cases, does the penalty fit the crime?

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AS for the Warwick Farm meeting on Saturday, I am keen on Centennial Park in the Chipping Norton Stakes. Even though he is yet to win at 1600 metres his latest third in the 1400 metre Apollo Stakes was a pointer that he may be ready to break his duck.

In fact, I am keen on a David Payne double because there may be good value in Madibagold in the Liverpool City Cup.