Written on Monday, 02 November 2009 00:00
It's Cup Eve and we're studying the form, ready to bolt down to the TAB first thing tomorrow to beat the rush. But the big question: which of these primped, pampered and skittish mustangs do we outlay our hard-earned on?
Who better to ask than the army of newspaper racing pundits who make their living from following the nags full-time - 24/7, rain, hail or shine. They're trackside in the full heat of summer, they drag themselves up to Sydney for the autumn carnival and down to Warrnambool for the jumps racing, and then they saddle up again each week through the depths of winter.
Surely, if anyone knows how to unlock the mystery of the great race, it's this noble, clean-living band of Temperance Society members.
So, let's see, over at The Age we've got a platoon of these pundits willing to share their hard-earned knowledge. And they start with:
Peter Ellis - who likes Viewed, from Master O'Reilly second
Andrew Eddy - Viewed, from Leica Ding
Shelley Hancox - Viewed, from Leica Ding (c'mon, Shelley, no copying; get your own tips.)
Patrick Bartley - Alcopop, from Roman Emperor
Andrew Garvey - C'est La Guerre, from Viewed
Michael Sharkie - Alcopop, from Basaltico
John Locking - Viewed, from Shocking
Glenn Lester - Mourilyan, from Viewed.
Mmm, not much help there, although sounds like you could do worse than have a flutter on Viewed with perhaps a saver on Alcopop.
Over to the Herald-Sun, where we hope their team of high-flying, multimedia megastars can shed a bit more light on the two-mile classic.
Adam Hamilton - Viewed, from Alcopop
Adrian Dunn - Alcopop, from Viewed
Matthew Stewart - Viewed, from Alcopop (fair go, boys, aren't there 22 other horses in the race?)
Michael Manley - Alcopop, from Shocking
Tim Habel - Viewed, from Roman Emperor
Not terribly imaginative. But clearly there's a theme developing here: Viewed andAlcopop are clearly the best supported chances up in the press box. That view is reinforced when we turn to The Australian and discover that veteran racecaller and sporting allrounder Bruce McAvaney has gone for Alcopop
Apart from Messrs Garvey and Lester, seems few other punters are prepared to stick their neck out and try for something different. Viewed, of course, won the race for Bart Cummings last year and is the topweight and favourite, while Alcopop - the second favourite at $5.50 - is trained by a relative battler from South Australia, Jake Stephens, whose profile - and total career winnings - might be roughly one-thousandth the size of Bart's.
Elsewhere around Australia, we start to get a bit more variety. Up at Parliament House, we have a certain K Rudd going for Shocking. On the Sunshine Coast, Caloundra bookie Con Searle fancies New Zealand mare Daffodil. And at Toy Department headquarters, and only because you asked, we like Roman Emperor, from Mourilyan and Shocking.
But that tip comes with a health warning: of all the inexact sciences we know about - economics, weather forecasting, panda breeding and truffle growing - picking a Melbourne Cup winner ranks high up there. And that applies 10-fold to picking a Melbourne Cup quinella. The last time a favourite and second-favourite took out the first two placings, Bart was a small boy, so we'll be looking elsewhere for a bit of value with our exotics.
And we say that with the greatest of respect to our learned colleagues gathered around the free sausage rolls in the press box pie-warmer.
POSTSCRIPT - WEDNESDAY am
As we suspected, the much-trumpeted and much-tipped quinella of Viewed and Alcopop - chosen by many of our equine experts in the media - fell flat on its face. Viewed finished sixth and Alcopop seventh, confirming the notion that there is no such thing as a dead cert in the Melbourne Cup, and the other notion that a roughie or two always seem to creep in among the placegetters.
Congrats to the Prime Minister, though, for picking the winner - Shocking - and giving lie to the old furphy about wide barrier draws. For those brave enough to take the Toy Department tips, and taken our three horses each-way, you'd have collected on Shocking and Mourilyan. Which is better than a slap on the flanks with a wildy-brandished riding crop.
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