Be afraid. Be very afraid. That is the mantra punters need to rattle off this weekend as the Storm travel to Adelaide to meet the rejuvenated Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs and it is the haunting tune the piper will be playing for the remainder of the 2010 season when it comes to betting Melbourne Storm matches.

Punters need to be very careful from here on in with the Melbourne Storm. This is unchartered territory and the normal rules of engagement do not apply. Form can be thrown out the window. Normal behaviour can no longer be expected. Even gut instinct needs to be queried.

As expected, the Melbourne Storm have been an inconsistent betting proposition since being told that they would be playing for no premiership points in 2010. The Storm have won five and lost four since the hammer came crashing down on their 2010 campaign.

Riding the wild emotion after being hit with that epic punishment, Melbourne thrashed the Warriors 40-6 and the Cowboys 34-6 before a surprise loss to Brisbane. They shocked the Bulldogs without their Origin stars and they towelled up North Queensland at home 58-6. The Storm have also been thrashed by the Sydney Roosters and they were convincingly beaten by a Parramatta team who have since lost three straight and scored only 16 points along the way.

Since D-Day, Melbourne are 3-2 at home and 2-2 on the road. They have ran in seven-plus tries on three occasions while they have failed to get past three tries on five separate occasions. In total points betting, Storm games have gone over five times and under four times.

Punters cannot make heads nor tails of a Melbourne Storm team that have nothing tangible to play for. There is no pattern or trend to Melbourne's performances.

Bettors are also, quite reasonably, in a permanent state of concern over the Storm line-up. Melbourne rested four Origin stars after Origin I and the Bulldogs were backed from $2.60 into favouritism while all the big guns played after Origin II and absolutely tore the Cowboys to shreds.

This Saturday night the Melbourne Storm take on Canterbury in Adelaide. (TAB Sportsbet have quoted the Bulldogs at $1.85, Melbourne $1.95). It is expected that all of Melbourne's Origin contingent will be rested. That means no Cameron Smith, no Greg Inglis, no Billy Slater and no Cooper Cronk. The best bet of the match is that those four will not be playing or even be in Adelaide for that matter.

A resurgent Bulldogs team that has won both games since Ben Barba was elevated to the starting team should have few problems against a Melbourne side missing their Big Four. Punters thought that was the case six weeks back as well but a young and enthusiastic Storm team disposed of the Bulldogs 23-12.

This is where the waters get murky. On paper, the Storm are obviously a better team with the Big Four lining up. But after a tough Origin series, the (presumed) hard partying to celebrate Queensland's series win and the burden of being central figures in the scandal they are all likely to be a little flat from here on in. Young kids with an opportunity to win a first grade position, however, are likely to play harder and with more enthusiasm. The form of Matt Duffie and Justin O'Neill when getting a chance has been exemplary and they have now become regular first-grade players.

Motivation is the great imponderable with Melbourne at the moment. It is doubtful even the Storm coaches know if the team will be firing. With the rep season over and the premiership year now dragging on for Melbourne players, it is going to be increasingly hard for them to play with any enthusiasm on a weekly basis.

It is quite conceivable they will not win another game in 2010. They could also go through the rest of the season without a loss. Cooper Cronk could win the Dally M Medal. Or he could get all those niggling injuries cleared up in preparation for 2011 with an early surgery. Punters are simply in the dark on not just how the Storm will play but who will be running out for the club.

This is a version of handicapping hell for footy punters. Not only does recent form stand for nothing, punters must attempt to quantify intangible motivation while living in constant fear of significant team changes.

The best advice a punter can take from here on in is to be careful. Storm games are best avoided. Only a masochist could put any hard earned cash on a Melbourne game this year. Betting a Storm game is like dipping your hand into a box filled with rats and gold. You may get rich but the likelihood is you will just get bitten.

(Nick Tedeschi is a rugby league fan, punter and journalist who has written across a range of titles in the past six years.)