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NRL: Mug's Guide to Rd 20

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Written on Thursday, 22 July 2010 20:52

ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA v GOLD COAST, Win Jubilee Oval, Friday 7:35pm

The Story So Far: The Dragons have been the benchmark in 2010 as they chase back-to-back minor premierships with only four losses all season. The Titans have lost six of their last eight and are sinking like a stone.

Why to Watch: This is a season defining clash for the Titans. A hiding at the hands of the Dragons and they are going to find it very difficult to muster the strength and confidence to bounce back down the stretch.

We Think: The Dragons have won six of their seven matches against the Titans and have never lost when the two have met outside of Skilled Park. With Greg Bird sidelined by a hamstring injury and a makeshift three-quarter line now being turned out for the Titans, the Dragons will finish the Titans off on the fringes.

St George-Illawarra by 19

TAB SPORTSBET: St George-Illawarra $1.20, Gold Coast $4.40

CANTERBURY v PARRAMATTA, ANZ Stadium, Friday 7:35pm

The Story So Far: After Parramatta reached the Grand Final last season and Canterbury lost to the Eels in a classic preliminary final, both teams were expected to feature prominently in 2010. The Eels and the Bulldogs have disappointed, however, with the Eels tenth and Bulldogs thirteenth. The Eels enter this clash on the back of a two game winning streak while the Bulldogs won three on end before a desperately unlucky loss to the Roosters last Sunday.

Why to Watch: The Bulldogs and Parramatta have a long history of dislike for each other and the Eels get the chance to end Canterbury's season with a victory. This match will have a finals feel about it with plenty of heavy defence and desperation play expected.

We Think: The Bulldogs need to win on Friday to be any chance of sneaking into the finals. Against their hated rivals and in good form, they will be up for this.

Canterbury by 6

TAB SPORTSBET: Canterbury $2.60, Parramatta $1.48

CANBERRA v CRONULLA, Canberra Stadium, Saturday 5:35pm

The Story So Far: Sharks coach Ricky Stuart walked out on the club this week after the Sharks season ended with a humiliating loss to Manly last Saturday night, handing the reins over to Shane Flanagan. The Raiders have put two wins together, breaking the 30 point barrier for the first time in 2010 when scoring 52 points against Newcastle last Sunday.

Why to Watch: The Raiders can play some scintillating football on their home turf while the Sharks run out for the first time in the post-Ricky Stuart Era. Can the Sharks put in a big effort for their new coach or will a hot Raiders team blow the Sharks back to the Shire?

We Think: The Sharks have won their last five at Canberra Stadium and many of the Cronulla boys will be playing for their careers as the new coach assesses their form over the remaining rounds. A major upset looks to be on the cards with Cronulla able to shock the Raiders on their home patch.

Cronulla by 4

TAB SPORTSBET: Canberra $1.36, Cronulla $3.10

MELBOURNE v PENRITH, AAMI Park, Saturday 7:35pm

The Story So Far: Melbourne have endured yet another week of turmoil over the salary cap scandal with Brett Finch, Ryan Hoffman and Jeff Lima all announcing they would be playing in England this week. Penrith have suffered back-to-back home losses and are now in danger of slipping out of the top four with losses this week and next.

Why to Watch: You don't really need an excuse to watch Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith and Greg Inglis unleash their brilliance but with Inglis likely to head to the Broncos in 2011 this could be one of the last chances to see the Big Four all in action together.

We Think: The Storm might have one last stand in them and with Melbourne riding a six game winning streak against Penrith, Melbourne will be confident of bouncing back at AAMI Park. Penrith have only beaten Melbourne twice in Melbourne and they haven't done so since 2005.

Melbourne by 7

TAB SPORTSBET: Melbourne $1.68, Penrith $2.15

NORTH QUEENSLAND v NEWCASTLE, Dairy Farmers Stadium, Saturday 7:35pm

The Story So Far: The Cowboys are running 15th and have won only once in the last eight rounds while Newcastle are coming off a horrid loss to Canberra where they conceded 40 first half points.

Why to Watch: The last six games between these two teams have seen at least eight tries scored and with both teams anchored to the bottom of the table this should be a free-flowing affair with plenty of tries and attacking footy from post to wire.

We Think: The Knights have won more times on the road than in Newcastle this season and at the odds they are the play in what projects as a toss-of-the-coin shootout.

Newcastle by 4

TAB SPORTSBET: North Queensland $1.62, Newcastle $2.25

SOUTH SYDNEY v NEW ZEALAND, ANZ Stadium, Sunday 2:05pm

The Story So Far: The Warriors have won five on the trot and have shot up to fifth on the premiership ladder despite being one of the preseason favourites for the wooden spoon. Souths have lost four of their last five and are now outside the eight for the first time since the early rounds. Souths coach John Lang will see if his first referee blast in a 300-plus game career pays off after Souths have copped the wrong end of the stick the last few weeks.

Why to Watch: South Sydney have fallen outside the eight with two straight losses and need to turn their season around this weekend if they are to make only their second finals series in the last twenty years.

We Think: Souths have beaten the Warriors only once in Sydney since 1999 while New Zealand are 4-3 in Australia this year and will benefit from taking on the injury ravaged South Sydney pack. The Warriors should get the points in a close one.

New Zealand by 4

TAB SPORTSBET: South Sydney $1.62, New Zealand $2.25

MANLY v WESTS TIGERS, Bluetongue Stadium, Sunday 3:05pm

The Story So Far: The Tigers only loss over their last eight matches was against the league leading Dragons and as such they have climbed into the top four. Manly have been up-and-down all season and currently sit in sixth but only a single win clear of tenth.

Why to Watch: Benji Marshall. Two weeks back against the Titans he slotted a 51-metre field goal. Last week he set up two tries and scored a 60-metre solo four-pointer. Football is never dull when Benji is on the paddock.

We Think: The Tigers have made a habit of winning close matches this year and they have never lost on the Central Coast. If Benji can kick straight, the Tigers look set to grind out another tight victory.

Wests Tigers by 1

TAB SPORTSBET: Manly $1.55, Wests Tigers $2.40

BRISBANE v SYDNEY ROOSTERS, Suncorp Stadium, Monday 7:05pm

The Story So Far: The Roosters put together three straight wins for the first time in 2010 with a memorable victory over the Bulldogs last Sunday and as a result Brian Smith's team is now in the top four. Brisbane have lost their last two at Suncorp Stadium and have leading forward Sam Thaiday in doubt.

Why to Watch: With only a single win separating these two teams, this match will have a major bearing on the top eight. The halves battle of Pearce and Carney against Lockyer and Wallace is not a bad selling point either.

We Think: Brisbane wins if Thaiday plays. Thaiday will rip through the fragile Roosters pack while Brisbane have an outstanding record against the Roosters with eight wins in their last ten encounters. The Broncos should have this secured by early in the second half.

Brisbane by 8

TAB SPORTSBET: Brisbane $1.53, Roosters $2.45

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