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NRL Rd 21: The definitive mug's guide

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Written on Thursday, 29 July 2010 20:08

PENRITH v NORTH QUEENSLAND, CUA Stadium, Friday 7:35pm

The Story So Far: Penrith have fallen from the darlings of the 2010 season in recent weeks with three straight losses while the Cowboys have again failed to live up to expectations in 2010 as the team led by Johnathan Thurston sits equal last on the ladder.

Why to Watch: This is desperation central for both teams. The Panthers are sliding down the ladder at the wrong time of year while many of the Cowboys are fighting for their NRL careers as the club tries to avoid the its fourth wooden spoon.

We Think: The Panthers have won four of their last six against North Queensland and welcome back Luke Lewis and Luke Walsh. The Cowboys have won only once from nine matches on the road this season. Penrith should play themselves back into form against the Cowboys.

Penrith by 18

TAB Sportsbet: Penrith $1.22, North Queensland $4.10

CANTERBURY v SOUTH SYDNEY, ANZ Stadium, Friday 7:35pm

The Story So Far: The season is probably over for Canterbury now after a loss to Parramatta ended their late surge while Souths are facing an injury crisis but remain in the hunt for only their second finals berth since 1989.

Why to Watch: This match will be won up front with the Bulldogs front row of Ben Hannant, Michael Ennis and Ryan Tandy set to launch themselves into Souths all-star front three of Sam Burgess, Issac Luke and Roy Asotasi. The sparks will fly as huge hit follows huge hit.

We Think: Souths were impressive in beating the Warriors last Sunday but have lost another star in Beau Champion to injury. The Bulldogs are still mathematical contenders but they know they need to win this if they are any hope of sending out champion Luke Patten with a playoff run. Canterbury have won five of their last seven against the Bunnies and that is enough to support the blue and whites here.

Canterbury by 2

TAB Sportsbet: Canterbury $2.30, South Sydney $1.60

PARRAMATTA v SYDNEY ROOSTERS, Parramatta Stadium, Saturday 5:35pm

The Story So Far: A month back and the Parramatta faithful were calling for coach Daniel Anderson's head. Since then the Eels have won three straight averaging 34 points per match as memories of their amazing 2009 Grand Final run come flooding back. The Roosters nearly blew a 28-6 second-half lead against Brisbane on Monday but pulled the match from the fire in the dying minutes to make it four straight wins at Bondi Junction.

Why to Watch: Anyone who saw the Hayne Train run straight over a hapless Canterbury team last Friday night knows there is no better attraction in Australian sport than the flying Parramatta fullback at full throttle.

We Think: Both teams are flying right now but with the Roosters on a 5-day back-up after playing last Monday night and the Eels victors in four of their last six against the Roosters, Parramatta look the best play.

Parramatta by 4

TAB Sportsbet: Parramatta $1.50, Sydney Roosters $2.50

WESTS TIGERS v CRONULLA, Leichardt Oval, Saturday 7:35pm

The Story So Far: Cronulla are done and dusted for 2010 with coach Ricky Stuart walking away last week while the Wests Tigers are, with the exception of last week, starting to get hot and will go a long way to securing a top four spot with a win over the Sharks.

Why to Watch: When the Tigers click, there is no more thrilling team in the NRL with the likes of Marshall, Tuqiri, Lawrence, Farah and Ryan all capable of cutting loose. Against a Sharks team with one eye on their end-of-season trip and with a need to boost their mediocre for-and-against, the Tigers should score plenty of tries.

We Think: The Tigers field their strongest team of the season and have won 10 of their last 11 against the Sharks dating back to 2003 including a 56-10 drubbing in their last clash. The Tigers should win this in a canter.

Wests Tigers by 14

TAB Sportsbet: Wests Tigers $1.22, Cronulla $4.10

NEW ZEALAND v GOLD COAST, Mt Smart Stadium, Sunday 12:00pm AEST

The Story So Far: With the Warriors sixth on the premiership ladder and the Titans seventh, both teams are right in the hunt for September action.

Why to Watch: This match shapes as a season-defining clash for both clubs with the winner possibly being launched towards the top four while the loser could potentially slide outside of the eight.

We Think: The Titans have won four straight against the Warriors but Ivan Cleary's men have lost only to the Dragons in their last six matches in the Land of the Long White Cloud. This should be a close one but with the Titans a chance of being a little flat after getting up for their big match with the Dragons last Friday and with an ordinary day time record that has seen them drop their last two under the sun, the Warriors get the slight edge.

New Zealand by 4

TAB Sportsbet: New Zealand $1.55, Gold Coast $2.40

MELBOURNE v CANBERRA, AAMI Park, Sunday 2:05pm

The Story So Far: The Raiders have punched right back into finals contention with three straight victories while Melbourne are starting to show signs of disinterest as their season from hell drags on.

Why to Watch: Billy Slater against Josh Dugan ranks right up there with the most exhilarating fullback battles in the NRL, one that could play itself out on the Origin stage for many years to come.

We Think: Raiders coach David Furner played in the last Canberra team to win in Melbourne back in 2000, shortly after Raiders star fullback Josh Dugan turned 10. Overall, Melbourne have won 15 of their last 16 against Canberra. The Storm may be about to embark on a rotation policy and their stars are looking worn down but the Raiders just can't seem to beat Melbourne.

Melbourne by 8

TAB Sportsbet: Melbourne $1.43, Canberra $2.75

BRISBANE v ST.GEORGE-ILLAWARRA, Suncorp Stadium, Sunday 3:05pm

The Story So Far: The Dragons sit atop the premiership while Brisbane have lost three straight at Suncorp and have slipped out of the top eight.

Why to Watch: Wayne Bennett takes on the club he guided to six premierships and sixteen straight finals series, meeting protégé Ivan Henjak as well as players he moulded into stars like Darren Lockyer, Corey Parker and Sam Thaiday.

We Think: The Dragons have won 9 of their last 11 against Brisbane and are in a revenge situation after Brisbane knocked the Saints out of the finals in 2009. With the Dragons coming off a shock loss last week and Brisbane backing up from Monday night, all signs point to a Dragons win.

St.George-Illawarra by 7

TAB Sportsbet: Brisbane $2.00, St. George-Illawarra $1.80

NEWCASTLE v MANLY, Energy Australia Stadium, Monday 7:05pm

The Story So Far: Manly have found form after losing four of five with back-to-back wins and are chasing a top four spot while it is do-or-die for Newcastle who are stuck on 18 points and in desperate need of a win.

Why to Watch: Manly games have totalled a minimum of 46 over the last five weeks while Newcastle has the second worst defence in the NRL. This looks set to be a most entertaining try-fest.

We Think: Newcastle has won three straight against Manly at home and Monday night matches have proven a breeding ground for upsets this year. This should be closer than most anticipate with a shock Newcastle win a real runner.

Newcastle by 1

TAB Sportsbet: Newcastle $2.65, Manly $1.45

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