NEW ZEALAND v BRISBANE, Mt Smart Stadium, Friday 7:05pm AEST
The Story So Far: These two teams are currently rounding out the top eight with the Warriors sitting seventh on 28 points with a differential of +7 and the Broncos on 26 points with a differential of +7. Brisbane have lost both games since Darren Lockyer was hurt while the Warriors have won four of their last six at home.
Why to Watch: The prospect of an heroic Darren Lockyer return looms large and shouldn’t be missed while this match will have a finals feel about it with both teams desperate to win and secure a spot inside the top eight.
We Think: With Darren Lockyer out, Brisbane don’t have the spark or direction to win a football match. They have struggled over the last fortnight in his absence and with the Warriors having a vocal home crowd behind them they should get the two points. If Darren Lockyer makes a surprise return, however, this match will be much closer.
New Zealand by 6
TAB SPORTSBET: New Zealand $1.50, Brisbane $2.50
SOUTH SYDNEY v PARRAMATTA, ANZ Stadium, Friday 7:35pm
The Story So Far: Both these teams remain mathematical possibilities of making the finals but both have been terrible disappointments this year with Parramatta crippled by a culture of in-fighting and Souths crippled by a series of key injuries. Souths have won only 3 of their last 19 against Parramatta.
Why to Watch: Parramatta fans are rightly starting to turn on Jarryd Hayne and it will be fascinating to see how he reacts to a fanbase not in complete adulation of his skills anymore.
We Think: South Sydney have added to their injury woes with centre Beau Champion now done for the season with a broken leg. Parramatta should be more effective with Daniel Mortimer recalled and the slight prospects they have of playing finals football should surely drive the Eels to a big win.
Parramatta by 14
TAB SPORTSBET: South Sydney $2.50, Parramatta $1.50
CRONULLA v GOLD COAST, Toyota Stadium, Saturday 5:35pm
The Story So Far: The Titans are the hottest team in the NRL after five straight wins and are on the verge of becoming the first team this season to win six straight. Cronulla have won only six matches against four teams this year and look set to finish fourteenth.
Why to Watch: Scott Prince (pictured, above) is arguably the form player in the NRL and his ability to set his backline and wide running second-rowers alight is something to sit back and enjoy.
We Think: The Titans should have few problems with a Sharks team waiting for 2011. Cronulla have beaten the Gold Coast both times the teams have played at Shark Park and no team has won six matches in a row this season but you can’t pick against a team playing so well on both sides of the ball at present.
Gold Coast by 13
TAB SPORTSBET: Cronulla $3.00, Gold Coast $1.36
NEWCASTLE v ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA, Energy Australia Stadium, Saturday 7:35pm
The Story So Far: The Dragons can wrap up the minor premiership with a win over the Knights while a Newcastle victory would keep alive their slim hopes of playing in the finals, an unlikely proposition at the beginning of the season when the Knights were forced to cut two players after they were caught up in a drug supply scandal.
Why to Watch: The Dragons have lost four of their last seven and turned in their worst performance of the season against Canberra last weekend. The cat-calls of choking have already begun. How will Wayne Bennett’s men respond?
We Think: The Knights have tried hard all season and were slick against Brisbane last Friday but they encounter a much tougher team this week. The Dragons have won five straight over Newcastle at Energy Australia Stadium and will be desperate to build some momentum heading into the finals. St George-Illawarra should have too much class for the plucky Knights.
St George-Illawarra by 10
TAB SPORTSBET: Newcastle $2.15, St George-Illawarra $1.67
CANBERRA v NORTH QUEENSLAND, Canberra Stadium, Saturday 7:35pm
The Story So Far: The Raiders are making a late charge towards the finals after three straight wins and six wins in their last seven matches including a big win against their bunnies St George-Illawarra last Sunday afternoon. The Raiders are now tied with the Broncos on 26 points. The Cowboys have won only once from eleven matches away from home all year and are without skipper Johnathan Thurston.
Why to Watch: The Raiders need a big win to get their differential in the same ballpark as the differentials of Brisbane and the Warriors. This should lead to plenty of razzle-dazzle and some pretty rugby league.
We Think: Canberra will win and by a big score. Everything is against the Cowboys this week from the change in climate to the Raiders need to run in a big score. This could get very ugly for North Queensland.
Canberra by 28
TAB SPORTSBET: Canberra $1.10, North Queensland $6.50
WESTS TIGERS v MELBOURNE, Leichardt Oval, Sunday 2:05pm
The Story So Far: The Tigers can clinch a top four berth with a win over the Storm this week while Melbourne have not won away from AAMI Park since defeating Canberra all the way back in round ten at the height of the salary cap scandal.
Why to Watch: There is no better place to be on a Sunday afternoon than watching the Tigers do their thing in front of a full house at Leichardt Oval. You know a moment of Benji brilliance is just around the corner.
We Think: The Tigers have won four of their last five against Melbourne at Leichardt Oval while the Storm have lost their last five road matches and are clearly waiting for the season to draw to a merciful close. The Tigers will out-enthuse the poor old Storm.
Wests Tigers by 12
TAB SPORTSBET: Wests Tigers $1.47, Melbourne $2.60
SYDNEY ROOSTERS v MANLY, Sydney Football Stadium, Sunday 3:05pm
The Story So Far: The Roosters have lost three on the trot and have fallen from second favourites in premiership betting to sixth on the ladder and in danger of missing the eight. Manly are fifth on the ladder, equal on points with the Roosters, and are desperately trying to find some road form before the finals kick off with four losses in their last five away games.
Why to Watch: Manly and the Roosters are two of the best attacking teams in the NRL and with the winner a top four hope and the loser consigned to a dogfight to save their season next week, this should prove an entertaining match full of drive and desperation.
We Think: The Roosters look finished and have lost eight of their last nine against Manly. Manly struggle away from home but their form should see them home against a struggling Roosters outfit that look to have peaked too early in the true Brian Smith tradition.
Manly by 7
TAB SPORTSBET: Sydney Roosters $1.53, Manly $2.45
CANTERBURY v PENRITH, ANZ Stadium, Monday 7:05pm
The Story So Far: Penrith found their form last week with a 54-18 win over Souths after leading 40-0 at half-time. Canterbury are struggling for motivation and look set to finish thirteenth this year in a season that has been a major disappointment to fans and punters alike.
Why to Watch: Canterbury will farewell club legend Luke Patten on Monday with a big crowd expected for The General’s last home match in the blue and white after 223 appearances for the club. It will be an emotional night for one of the great clubmen of the last decade.
We Think: Penrith have won seven of ten against Canterbury and with David Stagg out the Bulldogs team looks short on class against a Penrith team building up for their first finals campaign since 2004. Penrith should run in a score.
Penrith by 12
TAB SPORTSBET: Canterbury $2.50, Penrith $1.50
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