GOLD COAST v NEW ZEALAND, Skilled Park, Friday 7:45pm

The Story So Far: The Gold Coast did as expected this season and finished in the top four after finishing with a 15-9 record. The Titans overcame a rough middle third of the season where they won only two of eight to finish off 6-1 with some momentum heading into the finals. The Warriors were expected to be finals contenders last year but were terribly disappointing following the death of Sonny Fai in the preseason. They have bounced back unexpectedly in 2010 to run fifth with 14 wins. The Warriors have the second best defence of all finals teams. The Gold Coast have won the last five matches between these two teams.

The Big Issue: The Gold Coast Titans are concerned about the health of halfback and key playmaker Scott Prince. Prince, who was named, hurt his shoulder in last Friday's clash with the Wests Tigers. The big Warriors forwards will certainly target Prince, who needs to play eighty minutes if the Gold Coast are to win their first ever finals match since joining the competition four seasons ago. John Cartwright also has the added headache of playing Greg Bird. While Bird has had a very good year, the Titans have been better with Mat Rogers at five-eighth and there is little room for Bird in the backrow. It is a good headache to have but a headache for the Titans nonetheless. As always, the concern for the Warriors will be travel. New Zealand have gone 6-5 in Australia this year but have traditionally struggled when crossing the ditch.

Why to Watch: Preston Campbell and Lance Hohaia are both livewires at fullback and could produce the moment of individual brilliance that breaks this match open. Both are capable of anything and in a match that should be tight and tough, these two little men both have the ability to turn the match on its head with one single play.

We Think: These two teams are remarkably similar in both style and statistics with both legitimate Grand Final contenders. The home ground advantage and the class of Scott Prince have us favouring the Titans in what should be an exceptionally close finals match. If Prince stays healthy and his kicking game is on song, he can nullify the Warriors backline advantage. The Gold Coast should win a tight one though bettors should probably take the 4 ½ start on the Warriors if laying down any cash, as it looks like the safest play.

Gold Coast by 1

TAB SPORTSBET: Gold Coast $1.57, New Zealand $2.40

WESTS TIGERS v SYDNEY ROOSTERS, Sydney Football Stadium, Saturday 6:30pm

The Story So Far: A final round loss consigned the Tigers to third on the ladder after going 15-9 throughout 2010 while the Roosters made it as high as second on the table after putting five wins on end throughout July but slipped to finish sixth after losing three of their final five and not beating the Cowboys by enough in their final match of the regular season. The Roosters won a shootout 44-32 over the Tigers back in round two on a hot and steamy day at the Sydney Football Stadium and then ground out a 12-8 victory when the two teams met six weeks later. The Roosters got the edge on Tuesday night when Todd Carney edged out Robbie Farah for the Dally M Medal.

The Big Issue: The big issue here is the venue with the third placed Wests Tigers playing the sixth placed Sydney Roosters at the Sydney Football Stadium. The SFS is one of three home grounds for the Tigers but is the permanent home of the Roosters. It is a Tigers home game but they have not played at the ground since losing to Canterbury in round six and have played only twelve matches at the venue in the last five seasons, going a middling 7-5. The Tigers finished higher but have given away home ground advantage. That could prove critical in this match.

Why to Watch: There aren't two more exciting attacks in the NRL. Benji Marshall and Robbie Farah direct the slick Tigers offense that often sees Lote Tuqiri and Blake Ayhford finish off some outstanding plays that can start from anywhere on the field while Dally M Medal winner Todd Carney and Mitchell Pearce have been putting Shaun Kenny-Dowall through holes all year. The Tigers and the Roosters can both light it up with the ball in hand.

We Think: If the Tigers can handle the Sydney Football Stadium, they will win by plenty. The Roosters may have cleaned up at the Dally M Awards but they are on Struggle Street at present after three straight losses, a come-from-behind win over Manly and a terrible victory over the Cowboys where they played some exceptionally dumb rugby league. The Roosters forwards have stopped making ground while panic has set in around the middle of the field. The Tigers, by contrast, are battle hardened after wins against Penrith, Parramatta and Melbourne and a close loss when hamstrung by injury to the Titans. The Tigers are travelling much better and if they can shut down the Roosters halves they should win this with some ease.

Wests Tigers by 10

TAB SPORTSBET: Wests Tigers $1.85, Sydney Roosters $1.95

PENRITH v CANBERRA, CUA Stadium, Saturday 8:30pm

The Story So Far: Penrith will end the longest active finals drought this weekend with their first finals game since 2004. The Panthers finished the year in second place with a 15-9 record, leading the NRL in attack. With a rampaging attack and an unquenchable thirst for points, the Panthers were the only team to score 600-plus points this year. The Panthers emerged as shock contenders early this season but have not dropped out of the four since late-April. The Raiders were once again written off by pundits and they looked shot only two months out from the finals but seven wins from their final eight matches including victories over three finals teams including Penrith have them entering the finals with plenty of momentum. Canberra have won 8 of their last 12 against Penrith.

The Big Issue: For Canberra, the two biggest issues are inexperience and a poor finals record. The Raiders have an exceptionally young team with eight players under the age of 23 turning out in the lime green this weekend with Joe Picker the only one of the eight to have played in Canberra's last finals match. The Raiders also need to overcome the mental scars of not winning a finals match since 2000, going 0-6 since then. The Panthers biggest concern is the fitness of halfback Luke Walsh. Walsh leads the NRL in try assists and is the key component of the Panthers attack but hurt his ankle two weeks back and is in doubt for this weekend's clash.

Why to Watch: Canberra are the fairytale team of the 2010 premiership and are capable of beating any team in the competition on their day. Having not won a finals match in a decade and with their last glory period ending 15 seasons back, most rugby league fans are excited by the prospect of the Raiders making a run at the title. There is also a large degree of animosity between these two with former Raiders coach Matthew Elliott now in charge of Penrith. The separation between Canberra and Elliott was not pleasant.

We Think: The Raiders match up really well with Penrith. Big forwards like David Shillington and Tom Learoyd-Lars can win the arm wrestle up front, particularly considering the suspension of Petero Civoniceva, while the Raiders backline has the firepower to score points. The Raiders have only been beaten by Melbourne in the last two months while Penrith haven't beaten a finals team since round 17, finishing the season a poor 4-5 with the easiest run home of any side in the NRL. Canberra are great value at $2.45 and with the 5½ points start.

Canberra by 4

TAB SPORTSBET: Penrith $1.55, Canberra $2.45

ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA v MANLY, WIN Jubilee Oval, Sunday 4:00pm

The Story So Far: The Dragons made it back-to-back minor premierships under Wayne Bennett with a 17-7 season that has arguably been the club's most dominant ever regular season. The Dragons dropped consecutive games only once this year for the first time ever and they have a 9-3 home record. Most impressively, the Dragons have the clear best defence in the NRL, allowing only 12.5 points per year. To put that in context, the Warriors have the next best defence of teams that remain alive, allowing 20.2 points per match. Manly have fallen into eighth position after losing three of their last four matches with no team ever winning a premiership since the mandatory Grand Final was introduced in 1954 after losing three of their final four regular season matches. Manly finished with a 12-12 record though have gone 6-9 since beating the Dragons in round 10. The Dragons have won 9 of the last 12 matches between the two teams.

The Big Issue: Injuries and suspension have absolutely ravaged Manly with skipper Jamie Lyon this week saying that a Manly victory over the Dragons would be the greatest win in the club's history. The Sea Eagles have lost Glenn Stewart, Steve Matai and Jason King to suspension as well as having Brett Stewart, Shane Rodney and David Williams out with injury. There are also major concerns over the fitness of Anthony Watmough and Kieran Foran. If Manly pull off a victory, it will be one of the greatest finals upsets in the history of rugby league.

Why to Watch: The Dragons are the best team in the NRL and are the raging hot favourites to win the 2010 title but they have a history of choking in the finals with a poor 5-8 finals record over the last decade. The Dragons are heavily favoured so all the pressure is on them. How they handle it will be enthralling viewing.

We Think: Manly have only a puncher's chance and a small one at that. The Dragons have historically had an edge over Manly but with the Dragons virtually at full strength and Manly torn apart by injury and suspension, this match seems all but over now. The Dragons have opened up a very tight $1.17 but even the most maroon-blooded Manly fan would struggle to conjure a scenario where Manly get even close. The star-studded Dragons three-quarter line should have few problems breaking down a Manly defence that has been brittle even when at full strength. The Dragons should win with a leg in the air.

St George-Illawarra by 20

TAB SPORTSBET: St George-Illawarra $1.17, Manly $5.00