CANBERRA v WESTS TIGERS, Canberra Stadium, Friday 7:45pm

The Story So Far: Canberra's fairytale continued last week with a 24-22 victory over Penrith. It was Canberra's first finals win since 2000 and their first finals win outside of Canberra since 1995. In beating the Panthers, Canberra became the first team in the NRL this season to win six straight matches with the Raiders having now won nine out of their last 10 including five straight wins at Canberra Stadium. Confidence is so high among second-year coach David Furner and his young troops that they genuinely believe they can beat anybody with Furner rightfully having no hesitation in stating that the scoreline of their win over Penrith was not reflective of Canberra's dominance. Injury wise the Raiders are just fine with skipper Alan Tongue set to return this week. The same cannot be said for the Wests Tigers, who have key playmaker Benji Marshall in doubt and as many as five others unlikely after a physically bruising and mentally draining 100 minute extra-time 19-15 loss to the Roosters last Saturday night. The Tigers attack has been worrying of late with Tim Sheens' men breaking 20 points only five times in their last fourteen encounters. The Tigers have won their last four against Canberra and four of the last six matches played between the two teams at Canberra Stadium. Canberra and the Wests Tigers have never met in finals action.

The Big Issue: The major issues for the Wests Tigers are their mounting injury toll and the effect last Saturday's epic loss will have on their premiership aspirations. The Tigers looked nicely placed to make a Grand Final run this time last week but now have to take on a rampaging Raiders outfit in Canberra only six days after such a brutal defeat. Worse for the Tigers, they may have to do so without Benji Marshall, who is rated no better than a 50-50 prospect of playing. The Tigers will also play without Tim Moltzen, Wade Mackinnon, Jason Cayless, John Skandalis, Taniela Tuiaki and Geoff Daniela while Blake Ayshford, Chris Lawrence, Gareth Ellis, Simon Dwyer and Liam Fulton all in doubt. The biggest issue for the Raiders is how their young stars handle the pressure of a home final in front of a sellout crowd. Youthful exuberance has helped the Raiders come this far but a lack of finals experience could prove telling if this game is close.

Why to Watch: The Canberra Raiders are the genuine good-guys of the NRL. They consistently overachieve, they play a thrilling brand of football and they have some of the most exciting young talent in the NRL. Their run this far has been a genuine fairytale and every footy lover who isn't a Wests Tigers fan will be cheering on the Green Machine with all their might.

We Think: It would have seemed delusional even a fortnight back that the Raiders would be favoured in a semi-final against the Wests Tigers but here we are and if anything the Raiders have again been undervalued. The Tigers just have too many injuries to compete with the high flying Raiders and exciting backs like Josh Dugan, Jarrod Croker, Terry Campese and Reece Robinson should have a field day against the makeshift backs of the Tigers. This could actually get ugly for the Tigers. The Raiders look an outstanding bet at $1.53 and they should cover the 5 ½ start.

The Next Step: The winner of this semi-final has minor premiers St George-Illawarra awaiting them. If Canberra were to win this they would enter their first preliminary final in 13 years flush with confidence having only lost to the Dragons once since 2001. The Wests Tigers would also fancy their chances against the Dragons having won six of their last nine against the Red V including the 2005 preliminary final.

Canberra by 14

TAB SPORTSBET: Canberra $1.53, Wests Tigers $2.50

SYDNEY ROOSTERS v PENRITH, Sydney Football Stadium, Saturday 7:45pm

The Story So Far: The Sydney Roosters come into this on the back of one of the great finals comeback victories when the down-and-out Roosters rallied from a 15-2 deficit to tie the scores on the stroke of full-time thanks to a 35-metre Braith Anasta field goal before Shaun Kenny-Dowall scored the winning try off an intercept in the 100th minute. It was the Roosters first finals win since 2004. The Roosters have now won three on end and have got the money in four of their last five at the Sydney Football Stadium. Penrith are playing finals football for the first time since 2004 but have been cruelled by injury with Trent Waterhouse and Frank Pritchard both ruled out for the season this week. Suspended skipper Petero Civoniceva does return, however, with exciting fullback Lachlan Coote some chance of being a late inclusion. Penrith coach Matt Elliott has lost all six finals matches he has coached by an average margin of 12.5 points. The Roosters have won six of the last 10 clashes between the two teams. The only time these two teams have met in finals action was the 2003 Grand Final where Craig Gower and Luke Priddis led the Panthers to an upset victory.

The Big Issue: Like the Wests Tigers, the Penrith Panthers are chasing their first finals win in a half-decade with an injury ravaged team that is missing key players Waterhouse, Pritchard and Coote and quite possibly Tim Grant. The injuries to the Panthers pack has left them undersized and bereft of ball-playing fringe forwards capable of unleashing their speedy outside men. The issue for the Roosters is harnessing the emotions from last week's mammoth win. The victory over the Tigers was one for the ages but they now have to regroup to take on a Penrith team capable of scoring points. The Roosters cannot just throw the ball around with abandon and expect to beat Penrith. They have to play with structure and they have to improve significantly on their recent lack of try scoring that has seen them score four tries only once in the last six weeks.

Why to Watch: It is impossible not to respect the grit the Roosters displayed last week when rolling the Wests Tigers. The Roosters were out on their feet but managed to hold wave after wave of Tigers attack out and then launched their comeback on the back of some Todd Carney brilliance. The Dally M Medal winner is playing as well as anybody and is worth the price of admission alone but combined with talented playmakers like Mitchell Pearce, Luke Lewis and Braith Anasta and game-winners like Michael Jennings and Shaun Kenny-Dowall all on show in this do-or-die match, this could prove to be yet another finals classic.

We Think: Penrith look shot. They will have their moments but they have not been able to put together a strong game of rugby league against a quality opponent in many months with their last win against a top-eight team coming back in round 17. Riding a wave of emotion after last week's incredible victory, the Roosters should get too much of a roll on. Nate Myles will lead the pack right through the middle of the Panthers ruck, plowing the Roosters to victory down the middle.

The Next Step: The Gold Coast Titans awaits the winner of the Roosters-Penrith semi-final with the Titans into their first preliminary final with the match scheduled for Skilled Stadium next Friday night. Both the Roosters and the Panthers will be playing off for the right to participate in their first preliminary final since 2004.

Sydney Roosters by 7

TAB SPORTSBET: Roosters $1.53, Penrith $2.50