ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA v SYDNEY ROOSTERS, ANZ Stadium, Sunday 5:15pm

Storylines: The leading storyline here is the 31-year premiership drought for the St George faction of the St George-Illawarra merger. Despite being a force over the past three decades, with the Dragons making five deciders and a further three preliminary finals, the club had lost its ability to win titles.

The first title for Red V diehards under the age of 35 is only a win away, while it would be the first premiership for those in the Illawarra portion of the club. Wayne Bennett and Brian Smith have a rivalry stretching back to the 1992 and 1993 Grand Finals, with Bennett and Smith combining for the most premiership matches and most premiership wins by two Grand Final combatants.

Brian Smith is the longest serving coach never to win a premiership and could end that drought in his 23rd year in the top grade. The Roosters could become the first team since Western Suburbs in 1934 to go from wooden-spooners to premiers in the space of a year.

The much-maligned Roosters prop Jason Ryles returns to take on his former club after Bennett cut him when moving to the Dragons in 2009.

Jamie Soward is a similar tale. Axed by the Roosters midway through the 2007 season before thriving at the Dragons, he has developed into an elite five-eighth who is regarded as one of the best halves in the game.

Talking Points: There is deep concern about the fitness of St George-Illawarra prop forwards Michael Weyman and Jarrad Saffy. Weyman, who debuted for Australia this year, has a groin injury and has not trained since the Dragons beat the Tigers on Saturday night.

Weyman has been the Dragons key go-forward man this year and any injury worries will have a major impact on the Dragons' hopes. Bench prop Jarrad Saffy is also in doubt after missing the preliminary final with a quadriceps injury. At this stage, though, both are expected to play.

Roosters coach Brian Smith is renowned for making late team changes and nothing is expected to change this week. The chances of injured winger Phil Graham coming back from a torn pectoral muscle sustained in the opening 20 minutes against Penrith in week two of the finals are growing. According to Smith, Graham's odds were "thousands" last week but his chances of playing are into "10s". If Graham plays, he is likely to come in for B J Leulia.

The other position Smith may opt to tinker with is hooker. James Aubusson was a late inclusion last week and played the opening 21 minutes before Jake Friend saw out the match. Friend has been named to start this week while Aubusson has been included on an extended bench. Aubusson's emotional state at the end of the Titans match, however, suggests he will not be picked in the Roosters top 17.

There has been some controversy over the refereeing appointments, with Tony Archer and Shayne Hayne named to control the big one. There are no qualms over Archer, who is widely regarded as the best referee in the game. The appointment of Hayne is viewed as somewhat controversial, however, after some dubious decisions in the Dragons-Tigers match.

The Dragons are 23-10 under Archer and have a 14.55% better strike rate under him than on average. The Roosters are 17-14 under Archer and are only -0.42% worse under his refereeing. The Dragons are 19-13 all-time under Hayne, 4.32% above average, while the Roosters are 14-1-6, 14.98% above average.

Why watch? Grand Finals don't need pumping up as this is what every fan waits for each and every year. It is the biggest match of the season, with everything on the line. This year will be first all-New South Wales decider since Canterbury beat the Roosters in 2004 as two traditional rivals take each other on. This will be a bruising encounter with the prospect of fireworks high and the chances of a classic finish large. This has all the makings of a classic Grand Final.

We Think: There is no doubt this will be a defence-oriented match, with both teams extremely miserly when it comes to allowing points. The Dragons rank as one of the best NRL-era defensive units, allowing only 12.6 points per match. The Roosters have been only marginally more generous, allowing just 15.2 points per match over the past nine weeks.

In the past five matches between the teams, the average points total has been 30, with the median total a low 31. Only one of the past seven matches between the Dragons and the Roosters has generated more than 40 points.

It appears the match will be an arm wrestle and that certainly favours the patient Dragons. Wayne Bennett has instilled not only confidence in the club but a sense of calmness. Even when the Dragons were down against the Tigers, they appeared to be in control. With the scores locked, it was the Dragons who did not panic and Soward calmly slotted the winning field goal.

There is no doubt the Roosters are riding a big wave of momentum. They shape as a team of destiny and have class across the park, boasting a halves pairing of in Mitchell Pearce and Todd Carney that may well be representing Australia soon; an outstanding leader in Braith Anasta; a never-say-die forward in Nate Myles; and try-scoring whiz Shaun Kenny-Dowall. They just don't have the depth to go with the Dragons, who do not have a weak link anywhere on the field.

The Dragons have won nine of their past 11 matches against the Roosters, allowing them only 7.67 points per match over the past six encounters. The Dragons match up well with the Roosters and we expect them to control the ruck and hold the Roosters to a single-digit score while putting on between 12 and 20 themselves. The kicking game of Soward and the ability of the Dragons forwards to make yards will prove the keys.

After guiding Parramatta to their first premiership, Jack Gibson famously said "ding dong, the witch is dead". Wayne Bennett appears on the verge of having his own ding dong moment as the monkey that has been on the Dragons back for three decades is finally shaken off.

Tip: St George-Illawarra by 8

TAB SPORTSBET: St George-Illawarra $1.68, Sydney Roosters $2.15