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Premiership flood? More like a trickle

Nick Tedeschi

Nick Tedeschi

Written on Tuesday, 05 October 2010 14:58

As the rains teemed down on ANZ Stadium on Sunday night, Dragons fans everywhere jumped wildly, hugging strangers and grinning that goofy grin that only the pure joy of a premiership can bring. For that one moment, all of the heartache and disappointment and bitterness were gone.

For St George fans, this was the great rain after a 31-year drought that appeared, at times, as if it would never end. The sense of entitlement at the Dragons is long gone but hopes are high that this downpour will start the next great flood of Dragons premierships.

For Illawarra fans, the premiership was the completion of a project that began in 1982 when big-time rugby league was brought to the region, and is the justification of the merger with St George. Wollongong is a rugby league heartland and few regions deserve a title more.

Everyone has associated with the Red V has been delirious with elation since Sunday night. Many are prepared to declare that the floodgates have now opened and that this year was the start of Dragon domination for the next five years.

But I'm not so sure. In fact, I'd say Dragons fans should enjoy this much deserved premiership because there will be no Dragons dynasty in coming years. There are too many factors conspiring against the Dragons to allow any form of domination to be established.

Structurally, dynasties have virtually been eliminated by the hard salary cap implemented by the NRL. In the last decade, the NRL has had nine different premiers with the Melbourne Storm the only team to claim two titles over that period.

Melbourne, of course, was subsequently stripped of both premierships for operating outside of the salary cap. Since the salary cap was introduced in 1990, the Brisbane Broncos in 1992-93 are the only team to win back-to-back titles*. It is impossible for teams to establish any form of domination over the NRL. The competition is so even that success is very much dependent on uncontrollable factors like injuries. The Dragons had a sound run with injuries in 2010 but that cannot be relied on again in 2011.

We already know several key squad members are departing. The Dragons have lost Jeremy Smith to Cronulla, Neville Costigan and Beau Henry to Newcastle, Luke Priddis to retirement, Jarrad Saffy to rugby union, Ricky Thorby and Kalifa Fai-Fai Loa to North Queensland and Michael Lett to Canterbury.

Saffy played 21 games this season with Costigan (20), Priddis (20), Smith (15) and Thorby (10) all making significant contributions in 2010 while Henry, Fai-Fai Loa and Lett added to the Dragons depth. The Dragons will start 2010 with a team similar in top-17 strength in 2011 but any injuries will see the Dragons drop off significantly.

Age is also a worry for the Dragons. Five of their premiership-winning starters will be 27 or older when the season starts with Matt Cooper, Nathan Fien and Ben Hornby all over 30. That isn't a huge proportion of older players but it does suggest a third of the squad will be retiring/heading overseas in the next few years and with these key figures gone, the Dragons - I think - will most likely suffer from a major fall-off.

The biggest factor working against a Dragons dynasty, however, is the man who inspired such talk, Wayne Bennett.

Bennett has turned the club from a glitzy outfit with a soft underbelly to a hardened and selfless unit who built their success on defence. In two years at the club he has delivered two minor premierships and that long awaited premiership title.

By winning at the Dragons, Bennett surged past Jack Gibson as rugby league's greatest coach. As long as he remains at the club, St George-Illawarra will be a force.

He is, however, only signed for another year and with his family still in Queensland it is expected that he will return to the Sunshine State after the 2011 season with his mission accomplished and his reputation enhanced. Only an ungodly sum of money will keep Bennett at the Dragons.

Bennett is 60 years of age and, having achieved so much in the game, he may look to head home with a job as the coach of the Cowboys or the coaching director of the Broncos both touted as possibilities. It is tough to see the Dragons competing at the level they have without Bennett. Simply look at the Dragons before Bennett arrived and the Broncos after he left. One went up, the other down.

The Dragons should be mighty proud of their premiership. It is time to drink in the glory and bask in the moment. But their fans should not get too far ahead of themselves, because the salary cap, loss of depth, ageing squad and the likelihood Wayne Bennett will leave after next year will all conspire against an enduring Dragons dynasty.

(* Brisbane also won Super League in 1997 before claiming the reunified NRL title in 1998.)

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