Written on Thursday, 04 November 2010 09:41
Barely a month after the St George-Illawarra Dragons were crowned 2010 NRL premiers, pre-season training has already started for a number of clubs.
Canterbury-Bankstown and Parramatta were back on the training paddock before Melbourne Cup day, and have since been joined by Brisbane. The remainder of the NRL will return for the gut-busting runs and punishing summer fitness sessions over the coming weeks. Sights have already turned to 2011. The slate is clean and dreams of premiership glory abound at all sixteen clubs.
There is certainly an expectation at both Canterbury and Parramatta that the disappointment of 2010 can quickly be forgotten as the preparations for the 2011 season commence.
At Canterbury, the high hopes are more than reasonable after a stellar recruitment campaign that has netted promising young prop Aiden Tolman, outstanding half Trent Hodkinson, international back-rowers Frank Pritchard and Greg Eastwood and exciting young utility Kris Keating. The strong recruiting illustrates the new era the Bulldogs are set to embark on post-Patten and post-Kimmorley.
The Bulldogs went to a preliminary final in 2009 before injuries and a slow start ruined what should have been a positive 2010. The big improvement for the Bulldogs will come in attack with Pritchard and Eastwood offering second-phase ball, something that was nonexistent this year, while Hodkinson and Keating adding bring creativity and variety to the halves. TAB Sportsbet have put the Bulldogs up at the juicy odds of $13.
TAB Sportsbet have also Parramatta at $13 but there aren't too many sharp punters who would step in at that kind of price. New coach Stephen Kearney, despite his wonderful credentials, will certainly have his work cut out for him. The Eels are divided at board level, they have lost the leadership of Nathan Cayless and the problems at halfback continue. Combined with the uninspired recruiting of the overrated Carl Webb and suspended drug cheat Reni Maitua, and it seems Parramatta will be up against it in 2011. They are a worse team on paper than they were this year and they cannot be relied on to put it together on the field.
Brisbane has purchased big names Greg Inglis and Ben Hannant but the market has dramatically overvalued their premiership hopes with the Broncos third on the line of betting at $9. Inglis is simply a straight swap for Folau and while Hannant improves the Broncos go-forward and the return of Justin Hodges should give the Broncos attack more potency, they still have major depth issues along with a coach on the hot seat. They missed the finals this season and they are over-reliant on the aging Darren Lockyer. The Broncos have not done nearly enough to get themselves in premiership shape.
The most difficult team to get a grip on is the Melbourne Storm. The Storm have been written off by many pundits after being forced to shed much of their playing talent but they remain very short at $9 with TAB Sportsbet. The Storm still have a bevy of stars in Billy Slater, Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk and have recruited with intelligence but losing such a significant crop of players is bound to take its toll. Fuelled by redemption, the Storm should be hard to beat once again next year. The price of $9, however, is just too short.
St George-Illawarra, as is the case with most defending premiers in any competition with a salary cap, have lost more players than they have gained but they will retain the bulk of their premiership winning seventeen for 2011 as well as master-coach Wayne Bennett. They are entitled to premiership favouritism but there is little value at $5.50. No team, has won back-to-back premierships since Brisbane in 1993 and the Dragons will not have the depth in 2011 that they had this year.
The Wests Tigers and the Gold Coast, beaten preliminary finalists this season, are both much better value than the Dragons. The only knock on these two is that since 2000 only Canterbury (2003) and North Queensland (2004) have lost a preliminary final and gone on to play in the decider the following year.
The Tigers have not been involved in the player market this off-season but they have one of the best lists in the NRL and will improve markedly with the return of Tim Moltzen and Taniela Tuiaki. TAB Sportsbet is betting $11 on the Tigers, who came within a point of rolling the Dragons in the preliminary final and were arguably the second best team in the premiership this season.
The Gold Coast Titans have improved over each of their four seasons and they have one of the few elite playmakers in Scott Prince as well as a forward pack loaded with rep quality players. The Titans only need to mend their problems in the back five to go all the way in 2011. John Cartwright's team seems the value pick at $17.
Of all 2010 finalists, the Canberra Raiders are the longest price at $21. The Raiders are sure to hurt from the loss of Terry Campese, who is out until at least the middle of the season with a knee injury. They do, however, have an outstanding young team boosted by the addition of Brett White and Blake Ferguson and if they can come up with a playmaking solution then the Raiders are legitimate title hopefuls. If Matt Orford ends up at Canberra expect the current price to halve.
Manly made consecutive Grand Finals in 2007 and 2008 but their premiership window has well and truly closed. They have lost boom halfback Trent Hodkinson and international prop Josh Perry and because of salary cap problems have not been able to bring anyone in. They are an old team who cannot possibly improve enough to win the title even with the return of the unlucky Brett Stewart. Stay away from the $17 on offer.
At big odds the North Queensland Cowboys are value. TAB Sportsbet have thrown up odds of $51. It will take a big turnaround in 2011 for the Cowboys to be title hopefuls after a miserable five-win season but they are a club making the right noises. The front office has undergone a restructure while the club has picked up outstanding clubmen Dallas Johnson and Brent Tate as well as workhorse Gavin Cooper, while also cleaning out much of the deadwood. At some point next season North Queensland will be shorter than $51 and are well worth a ticket at the big price.
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Bring on the 2011 season


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