Not since Tim Sheens in 1990 has a coach not named Wayne Bennett won back-to-back NRL premierships. Bennett, of course, has achieved the feat twice with Brisbane, leading the Broncos to titles in 1992-93 and 1997-98.

There have been many fine teams over the last two decades who have failed to defend their title successfully. The great Melbourne Storm team who made four straight deciders from 2006-09 never successfully defended. Manly were considered the best team in the league from 1995-97 but won only the one premiership in 1996. It was a similar tale with the Sydney Roosters, who won the premiership in 2002 before losing Grand Finals in 2003 and 2004.

St George-Illawarra this season faces the extraordinarily difficult prospect of winning back-to-back titles, looking to become the first team in the NRL-era to do so. At least they have Wayne Bennett steering the ship.

Former Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks and Miami Heat championship winning coach Pat Riley has referred to what he calls "the disease of more" where "success is often the first step towards disaster". Essentially, Riley argues, players become more selfish upon winning a title, demanding more money and more recognition while failing to make the sacrifices and the time for added work required to win a title.

For a team to be successful in this era of parity in the NRL, players must subjugate themselves to the team and buy into the ethos and culture laid out by the coach. It comes as no surprise that teams under Wayne Bennett and Craig Bellamy have been the most successful. Only Bennett and Bellamy can inspire such unwavering devotion and belief.

As such, the Dragons are as well placed as any team in the last decade to back-up. They have class across the paddock with six internationals in the backline, four internationals in the pack and a ton of depth. It is a team with an identity, a team built on a strong defence and a team playing under the belief that they may never be in such a position again with Wayne Bennett poised to return to Brisbane in 2012.

Only a horrible run of injuries or a worse run of luck will see the Dragons eliminated before preliminary final weekend.

A string of challengers, six teams deep, will push the Dragons though and it will only be the teams that improve by a significant margin in defence that will threaten the Dragons.

The Melbourne Storm have the least distance to travel defensively. Craig Bellamy's team has ranked top-two defensively over each of the last five seasons and the result was straight four Grand Finals. The salary cap scandal means Melbourne will field a new-look team in 2011 but the big guns of Slater, Smith and Cronk remain and Bellamy has proven over the years that all he requires is those stars and a capable ensemble to have Melbourne in title contention. A mix of outstanding young talent in Beau Champion, Justin O'Neill and Chase Stanley, combined with hard heads like Troy Thompson and Adam Blair, has Melbourne well and truly in the title hunt.

The Wests Tigers certainly improved enough in 2010 to suggest their premiership window is well-and-truly open. The Tigers have improved from 11th to 6th in points conceded over the past two seasons and most importantly, from 14th to 4th in missed tackles. With one of the best packs in the NRL, a brilliant playmaker at the peak of his career and a new-found respect for the defensive side of the game, the Tigers stand as the Dragon's biggest threat.

For reasons not entirely clear, the Gold Coast Titans have been written off by all and sundry with bookmakers betting as much as $21 about John Cartwright's team. The Titans have improved every season under Cartwright and made a preliminary final in 2010, incidentally going through the year as one of the best value betting teams of the year, particularly when travelling interstate. Losing only Mat Rogers, there seems to be no indication that the Titans will go backwards this season. While the Titans are a little off the Dragons in terms of talent, the marked disparity in betting seems astonishing. Write off the Gold Coast at your own peril.

For the first time in 15 years, the Canberra Raiders shape as legitimate premiership hopefuls and with their amazing record against the Dragons in recent times, having lost only twice to St George-Illawarra since 2000, they have to be one of Wayne Bennett's major worries. A thrilling young side, all hope seemed lost when Terry Campese underwent a knee reconstruction in the off-season but the shrewd purchase of premiership winning halfback Matt Orford has Canberra on the cusp of their best season since '95. The core of the Raiders team that won the Toyota Cup in 2008 is now in first grade and, combined with a hardened forward pack, the Raiders are a team with few flaws. If only they had a decent coach.

Canterbury-Bankstown will be the big improvers in 2011. After a preliminary final appearance in 2009, much was expected of the Bulldogs in 2010 but the club never got going with an up-and-down forward pack and a backline that lacked flair. The Bulldogs have been extremely active in off-season recruitment, signing halfback Trent Hodkinson, backrower Frank Pritchard and prop Aiden Tolman, among others. Coach Kevin Moore is on the hot seat but it is hard to see Canterbury flopping like last season. They need to improve dramatically in defence, so perhaps a 2012 title run is more realistic, but the Bulldogs should be floating around the top of the premiership ladder this year.

The Roosters, backing up from a Grand Final appearance, should again make the eight but no punter in their right mind could back a Brian Smith-coached team for the title. Combined with Todd Carney's reacquaintance with the drink, the pre-season injury to Anthony Watts and question marks over the work ethic of their forward pack, there are enough red flags with the Roosters to suggest they will struggle to make it to another decider.

The other nine teams cannot win the premiership. South Sydney are ridiculously overrated and lack depth and key position talent. Stephen Kearney should get some improvement out of Parramatta but the Eels do not have the backline class to threaten. Penrith severely overachieved in 2010 and are in for a sharp slide down the ladder. Manly are an ageing team with little improvement in them. There is not a lot of history with teams firing head coaches three weeks out from the season but it seems unimaginable that Brisbane could contend. New Zealand have a very good coach and are building something but they lack a veteran presence. Newcastle need Nathan Tinkler's cash to rise above the mediocrity they are mired in. There is no indication North Queensland and Cronulla will improve.

The 2011 title is the Dragons to lose but those betting on the season will find value elsewhere. Melbourne, Canberra and the Gold Coast are the best wagers while South Sydney is the best lay.

(Nick Tedeschi has written an extensive e-book previewing the NRL season that provides a unique statistical evaluation and comprehensive betting appraisal of every NRL team. "The Punters' Guide to the 2011 NRL Season" also includes complete squad listings for each club, analysis of head-to-head results, line and total points betting, the thoughts of Australia's top rugby league gambler ‘Mr Rugby', recruitment analysis, draw evaluation for every club and betting advice for the 2011 season. "The Punters' Guide to the 2011 NRL Season" can be purchased online for only $14.95.)