Written on Friday, 29 April 2011 10:29
BRISBANE v CANTERBURY, Suncorp Stadium, Friday 7:45pm
Along with Melbourne, Brisbane and Canterbury shape as the most likely contenders to St George-Illawarra's crown. Combined with the contrasting styles these two offer, Brisbane proving themselves an elite defensive unit while Canterbury have been sizzling with the ball in hand, this is a salivating match-up. Canterbury have won four of five but have struggled against superior defensive units, Melbourne and St George-Illawarra, and Griffin's Great Wall shows no sign of cracking yet. Expect Ben Hannant to be in for some extra attention from the likes of Michael Ennis after he left Canterbury (pictured, above) on poor terms at the end of last season. Ennis, along with David Stagg and Greg Eastwood, are former Broncos now wearing blue and white.
BPL TIP: Brisbane by 4
TAB Sportsbet odds: Bris $1.72, Bulldogs $2.10
SOUTH SYDNEY v CRONULLA, ANZ Stadium, Friday 7:45pm
Both teams enter this clash desperate for a win with the highly touted Bunnies on a three-game losing streak and ravaged by injuries to their pack while Cronulla have lost four straight and will be without their two most potent attacking weapons in Nathan Gardner and Albert Kelly. Attack has again been a problem for the Sharks, the club scoring 20-points only twice this season. Without Gardner and Kelly, it is hard to see the Sharks scoring enough points to roll Souths, who have a major class and potency edge in the backline. Souths have won seven of their last ten against Cronulla.
BPL TIP: South Sydney by 10
TAB Sportsbet odds: South Syd $1.43, Cronulla $2.85
GOLD COAST v SYDNEY ROOSTERS, Skilled Park, Saturday 5:30pm
It is hard to imagine that this is a preliminary final rematch but these two 2-5 teams last met at Lang Park for a spot in the 2010 decider. Both have fallen away dramatically in 2011, age and injury hurting the Titans while ill discipline, both on and off the field, have floored the Roosters. This game should be won in the halves. The Titans have a better forward pack that should get on top of the Chooks but it will mean nothing if Scott Prince cannot find form. If he doesn't, Mitchell Pearce merely needs to kick strongly and play sensibly to get the Roosters home.
BPL TIP: Gold Coast by 1
TAB Sportsbet odds: Gold Coast $1.80, Roosters $2.00
MELBOURNE v NEWCASTLE, AAMI Park, Saturday 7:30pm
You have to go back almost six years to round 11, 2005 to find the last time Melbourne lost consecutive games at home. The worst thing that could happen to a plucky Newcastle team, who are putting in a mighty show under trying circumstances, was New Zealand coming to Melbourne and leaving with the two points last Monday. Craig Bellamy will whip the Storm this week, instilling the importance of both the fundamentals and home football. The Warriors showed that the Storm could be beaten by an aggressive and large forward pack but unfortunately for the Knights, injuries have left their pack looking fairly up-and-down. The Knights have shown plenty of heart this year to establish a 4-3 record, taking St George-Illawarra and Brisbane to the siren, but they just don't match up well against Melbourne. The Storm are 11-4 against Newcastle in their last 15.
BPL TIP: Melbourne by 8
TAB Sportsbet odds: Melbourne $1.40, Newcastle $3.00
NORTH QUEENSLAND v MANLY, Dairy Farmers Stadium, Saturday 7:30pm
Both these teams are flying at present, both establishing a 5-2 record this year. The Cowboys have surprised this year but there has been no disputing their 3-1 home record or more importantly, the form of halfback Johnathan Thurston. It has been the Cowboys defence though, that has sent them up the ladder with the Cowboys only twice allowing four-plus tries this year. This happened in 19 of 24 games in 2010. Manly have been honest this year and have surprised with their strike rate. This should be a high quality, highly entertaining affair likely to be decided by Thurston's sheer class and will to win. Look for the Willie Tonga-Jamie Lyon battle as that match-up will play a big part in deciding victory also.
BPL TIP: North Queensland by 2
TAB Sportsbet odds: Nth Qld $1.80, Manly $2.00
NEW ZEALAND v PENRITH, Mt Smart Stadium, Sunday 12:00pm
New Zealand could not have been more impressive Monday night. Ivan Cleary, a highly underrated coach, formulated a winning game plan, his players carried it out to the letter, winning in a very un-Warriors way, holding firm as the opposition came hard. Penrith, meanwhile, told Matt Elliott on Tuesday that he would not be the Panther coach in 2012, leaving a club divided and a lame duck coach in power. Penrith, a team who has shown little gumption in recent years, are unlikely to put in much of a showing against a big Warriors pack. There should be plenty of points with eight of the last 12 between these two totalling 50-plus points.
BPL TIP: New Zealand by 18
TAB Sportsbet odds: New Zealand $1.45, Penrith $2.75
CANBERRA v WESTS TIGERS, Canberra Stadium, Sunday 2:00pm
Times are dire at Canberra and if there wasn't a rampant case of nepotism in play, David Furner's job would surely be on tenterhooks at present. It's not though and the result is a Canberra team that continue to play lacklustre, directionless, uninspiring rugby league. The Raiders are desperate-or at least they should be- but life gets no easier on Sunday when Benji Marshall comes to town. Benji has not lost to the Raiders in nine appearances, including four times in the nation's capital, and despite the Tigers backline being near-unrecognisable and Gareth Ellis again sidelined with an ankle problem, he has enough of a team around him to cause Canberra plenty of grief. The Raiders may dig deep and pull a win out but you wouldn't bet on it.
BPL TIP: Wests Tigers by 7
TAB Sportsbet odds: Canberra $1.80, Tigers $2.00
ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA v PARRAMATTA, WIN Jubilee Oval, Sunday 3:00pm
St George-Illawarra: classy, disciplined, creative, strong on the fundamentals, full of match winners. Parramatta: average across the board, ill disciplined, bland, lazy. The Dragons and Eels may have met in the finals in 2009 but the gulf in their fortunes divided soon after, the Dragons going on to win the 2010 title as Parramatta endured a wretched season. This year, St George-Illawarra are again the benchmark while Parramatta can consider themselves extremely fortunate to have recorded three wins this year. With no Jarryd Hayne, the task in front of Parramatta is even more daunting. If the Eels get within two converted tries, it is only because the Dragons showed mercy.
BPL TIP: St George-Illawarra by 30
TAB Sportsbet odds: St George $1.16, Parramatta $5.25
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