CANBERRA v CANTERBURY (Canberra Stadium, Friday, 7:35pm)

Despite Canterbury travelling extremely well considering their draw (they have lost only to the three favourites in premiership betting) and the Raiders currently sitting in last, Origin selection has hurt Canberra more than it has the Bulldogs. Both teams have lost only a single player but Canterbury can live without Michael Ennis; the Raiders cannot without Josh Dugan. Over the last three seasons, Canberra have won 50% of matches when Dugan has played at the back, a number which drops to 41.4% in his absence. The Raiders have won only twice in the last eight games he has missed. Dugan is integral to the Raiders attack, laying a platform for the attack with an incomparable kick return and then creating as a key ballplayer/runner hybrid. He will be sorely missed by a Canberra team desperate to build some momentum after a horrendous start to the season. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are ticking along nicely with Ben Barba in career-best form and Aiden Tolman the form prop of the competition. Canterbury have only played in Canberra four times over the last eight years but have won on three occasions, including a comfortable 18-10 victory last year as the Raiders prepared to go on a streak that would take them to week two of the finals.

BPL Tip: Canterbury by 16
TAB Sportsbet odds: Canberra $2.65, Canterbury $1.47

WESTS TIGERS v PENRITH (Campbelltown Stadium, Saturday, 7:30pm)

The Wests Tigers are the most overrated team in the NRL at present. TAB Sportsbet rates them $11 to win it all though they are sitting eighth with a 4-5 record having beaten the last-placed Raiders twice, South Sydney (10th) and New Zealand (6th), downing the Warriors in round two as Ivan Cleary's team limped through the first three weeks of the season. South Sydney were there to be beaten last Saturday but the Tigers were limp with Benji Marshall failing to contribute, as can be the case in matches that lack marquee status. The Panthers will miss Michael Gordon, their best player and most potent attacking weapon, desperately but Luke Lewis has returned in fine nick and with Penrith owning a 14-5 all-time record over the Tigers, the upset could be on with Tim Sheens' men looking well under-the-odds.

BPL Tip: Penrith by 2
TAB Sportsbet odds: Wests Tigers $1.33, Penrith $3.25

NEW ZEALAND v SOUTH SYDNEY (Mt Smart Stadium, Sunday, 2:00pm)

South Sydney showed tremendous fight to down the Wests Tigers last Saturday night, jumping to a 27-0 half-time lead even with most of their prop rotation sidelined with serious injury. The Bunnies pack is so small that Jason Clark-listed at 184cm and 94kg-has been playing prop. Against a big, mean, physical pack that includes the likes of Russell Packer, Ben Matulino and Feleti Mateo, Souths look like they will struggle. The Warriors won every match between these two between 1999 and 2007 but the Bunnies have claimed the points in four of the last five matches. Souths will try hard but this is their first trip interstate since August last year (and only their second outside of Sydney) and they only went 1-3 when playing outside of the NSW/ACT in 2010. The Warriors should win the middle and the game.

BPL Tip: New Zealand by 14
TAB Sportsbet odds: New Zealand $1.33, South Sydney $3.25

SYDNEY ROOSTERS v NEWCASTLE (Sydney Football Stadium, Sunday, 3:00pm)

Newcastle never hold back on the Roosters. These two met in five fiery finals between 1998 and 2003 and that enmity has reached new highs in the years since Brian Smith walked out on Newcastle for the job at Bondi Junction. This should be a physical affair and that won't suit a Roosters team missing forwards Nate Myles, Mitch Aubusson, Tom Symonds and Anthony Cherrington, as well as on-field general Mitchell Pearce. The Knights have won the last five between these two, surprisingly, outside of Newcastle and the return of Beau Henry and non-Origin selection of Jarrod Mullen should ensure Newcastle play with field position. In their only match at the SFS in the last five seasons, back in 2009, a Jarrod Mullen double led the Knights to a 38-6 win.

BPL Tip: Newcastle by 8
TAB Sportsbet odds: Sydney Roosters $1.80, Newcastle $2.00

PARRAMATTA v CRONULLA (Parramatta Stadium, Monday, 7:00pm)

Cronulla fans must get on their knees and thank their deity of choice for the Parramatta Eels. No team has been more kind to the poor old Sharkies in the desperate and often despondent times of the last three years. Twice in the last two years, Cronulla have ended extensive losing streaks by rolling over Parramatta. A nine-game losing streak was halted in round 12, 2009 when Cronulla shocked the Eels 13-10 at Parramatta Stadium while the mammoth 13-game losing run that crossed the end of 2009 and the beginning of 2010 was brought to an end by a Tim Smith inspired 11-0 win at Shark Park. Cronulla have the wood on the Eels , winning five of the last six played between the two, and though they are missing four of their five best players to Origin and injury, they are every chance of upsetting an Eels team that never seems to play to its potential.

BPL Tip: Cronulla by 1
TAB Sportsbet: Parramatta $1.43, Cronulla $2.80