Written on Thursday, 16 June 2011 21:22
BRISBANE v ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA (Suncorp Stadium, Friday, 7:35pm)
It is always interesting to see Wayne Bennett return to his old Lang Park home to take on his former club but it has not been a happy hunting ground for the Supercoach, losing in both 2009 and 2010. Ivan Henjak didn't get much right but he did get the Broncos up for Bennett. Anthony Griffin won't need to do much to get the Broncos fired again for their old mentor, with the old guard sure to be ready -even if most are backing up two days after Origin. While Bennett has been on the losing side in 11 of the last 12 Broncos-Dragons matches, it is surprising the Dragons have opened outsiders in this game considering they have only lost twice this season and only once when they had all hands on deck. The Dragons will look to win this on the fringes, particularly their left, as they exploit the poor defensive positioning of Jharal Yow Yeh. The Dragons should win a close one that will certainly be a low scoring, grinding affair.
BPL Tip: St George-Illawarra by 6
TAB Sportsbet odds: Brisbane $1.87, St George-Illawarra $1.93
SOUTH SYDNEY v GOLD COAST (ANZ Stadium, Friday, 7:35pm)
When they talk about midseason malaise, it is matches like this they are talking about. Both teams have won four matches and both teams are closer to the spoon chase than a legitimate threat at the eight. Both have been dramatic underachievers in 2011; the Titans due to age and unthreatening backline play and the Bunnies due to a heavy injury toll and some expensive busts. Souths have won the last three but the Titans' pack has plenty of class. If the likes of Luke Bailey, Anthony Laffranchi and Michael Henderson can punch holes in the small South Sydney middle, the Titans can make it two on the trot for the first time in 2011.
BPL Tip: Gold Coast by 2
TAB Sportsbet odds: South Sydney $1.68, Gold Coast $2.15
NEWCASTLE v PENRITH (Ausgrid Stadium, Saturday, 5:30pm)
This could well be a coaching audition for Newcastle boss Rick Stone. Without a job in 2012 thanks to the arrival of Wayne Bennett, Stone is on the lookout for a new gig and he has been linked with Penrith, the only club with an open position at present. Stone is an outstanding young coach and Phil Gould, ever astute, surely rates him. A win could get him signed. Talent here is fairly even and with the Knights punting five-eighth Beau Henry, another halves combination will be tried on Saturday. The Knights have won only three of ten while the Panthers have hit form, winning three of their last four matches. Penrith's pack may just win the arm wrestle in this one. Don't be surprised to see an upset.
BPL Tip: Penrith by 4
TAB Sportsbet odds: Newcastle $1.65, Penrith $2.25
NORTH QUEENSLAND v NEW ZEALAND (Dairy Farmers Stadium, Saturday, 7:30pm)
The loss of Micheal Luck should not be underestimated. The Warriors workhorse dislocated his left patella and will miss eight weeks. The Warriors built up a 22-4 lead against the Tigers last Sunday but in the final 20 minutes, when Luck usually keeps the middle tight, their defence went to water and the Tigers recorded a memorable win. The Warriors have hit a rough patch with back-to-back losses and against a Cowboys team who have won six straight at home, that run is going to be tough to break. The Warriors have not downed the Cowboys in Townsville in their last six matches dating back to 2002 and they don't seem to have the team to exploit the Cowboys' fragile fringes with Simon Mannering and Krisnan Inu in the centres. This will be a Johnathan Thurston special.
BPL Tip: North Queensland by 14
TAB Sportsbet odds: North Queensland $1.50, New Zealand $2.60
CANTERBURY v CRONULLA (ANZ Stadium, Sunday, 2:00pm)
This is a career defining match for Kevin Moore. A win for Canterbury probably won't mean much but a loss will surely signal the end of his career at the club his father made so successful, so dire is his situation. Heavy losses to Canberra and Manly, combined with a disappointing 2010, and the knives are out. A loss to cellar dwellers Cronulla and it won't take long for Moore to be shown the door. This is a match Canterbury really should win. They have won 12 of 15 against Cronulla and even without Jamal Idris, dropped for missing a training session, and Trent Hodkinson, in his final week of a suspension, this is a match there to be won for the Bulldogs. You wouldn't put your last on an improved showing but you'd certainly expect one.
BPL Tip: Canterbury by 12
TAB Sportsbet odds: Canterbury $1.45, Cronulla $2.75
WESTS TIGERS v MELBOURNE (Leichhardt Oval, Sunday, 3:00pm)
There is no better setting in rugby league than a packed Leichhardt Oval on a Sunday afternoon, the crowd jammed in and bathed in orange and black, the smell of nostalgia hanging in the air, the ghosts of Balmain greats watching on. That is a tough atmosphere to win in and although Melbourne have been outstanding in recent weeks, returning to the gritty heart of their true nature, the outmatched Storm pack will have their hands full against a Tigers team rejuvenated by a memorable win in Auckland. Gareth Ellis is the most important player on the field. The performance of Adam Blair will be well worth watching on Sunday. Blair has reportedly signed with the Tigers for a big money offer, money the Storm would never pay based on his showings so far in 2011.
BPL Tip: Wests Tigers by 8
TAB Sportsbet odds: Wests Tigers $1.68, Melbourne $2.15
MANLY v PARRAMATTA (Brookvale Oval, Monday, 7:00pm)
These two both entered the premiership in 1947 but it wasn't until these two played in three deciders in eight years (1976, 82 and 83) that the rivalry came to the fore and that has been cranked up a notch in the last decade thanks to a series of close matches and the heavy transfer of players between the two clubs that has seen the likes of Jamie Lyon, Trent Hodkinson, Tony Williams and Joe Galuvao join the Eagles and a number of lesser lights heading back to Parramatta. This will be a feisty match with plenty of feeling. Manly are white hot though with Kieran Foran playing like a top-ten player. The Eagles have won five straight, allowing an average of only 6.0 points over that time. The Eels attack won't threaten that record.
BPL Tip: Manly by 13
TAB Sportsbet odds: Manly $1.36, Parramatta $3.15
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