You are here League NRL Rd 16: A Monday night special

NRL Rd 16: A Monday night special

Nick Tedeschi

Nick Tedeschi

Written on Thursday, 23 June 2011 15:14

WESTS TIGERS v CANTERBURY (Campbelltown Sports Ground, Friday, 7:35pm) 

The Tigers without Benji are like the bus without a bus driver. And that is what Tim Sheens' men face this week after Benji Marshall was sidelined with a medial strain in the ankle. The Tigers are a poor 2-5 without Marshall since the start of the 2008 season and they have rarely had such an inexperienced backline with the likes of Lote Tuqiri, Chris Lawrence, Taniela Tuiaki (now retired) and Matt Utai all out. Canterbury are in dire straits at present with their season virtually swinging on this match. They welcome back Michael Ennis, Trent Hodkinson and Jamal Idris and will need to turn around a six-week period that has seen them lose five matches, defeating only the Gold Coast. The Tigers are outsiders here but they may have just a little too much enthusiasm for the listless Bulldogs. Losing Benji is bad news but the Tigers don't seem as down and out as Canterbury are at present. 

BPL Tip: Wests Tigers by 2
TAB Sportsbet odds: Wests Tigers $2.15, Canterbury $1.68 

SOUTH SYDNEY v BRISBANE (NIB Stadium, Friday, 7:00pm) 

Rugby league returns to Perth for only the fourth time since the death of the Western Reds and it could not be more timely as talk of expansion into the west reaches critical mass. South Sydney have been looking to make Perth their home away from home in recent years with games against Melbourne in 2009 and 2010, splitting those matches. The Bunnies face their nemesis this time around though with South Sydney defeating the Broncos only twice since 1989, failing to collect the two points on 19 of 21 occasions over that period. The Broncos have won four of five interstate this season and with Corey Parker, Justin Hodges and Matt Gillett back, they should prove too strong for a Bunnies team coming off a very flattering and potentially false-confidence providing win. 

BPL Tip: Brisbane by 12
TAB Sportsbet odds: South Sydney $2.60, Brisbane $1.50 

GOLD COAST v CRONULLA (Skilled Park, Saturday, 5:30pm) 

The sharp fall of the Titans has been something to behold. They have dropped from preliminary finalists to likely wooden spooners with their attack only able to break 14 once in their last six matches and that was against a depleted Dragons team, a match they did their best to lose. These two have played six times and on each occasion victory went to the home team but with Paul Gallen in such a rich vein of form, the Sharks may be on their way to only their second interstate win of the last three years. If any player can carry a team on his shoulders to victory, it is Paul Gallen. 

BPL Tip: Cronulla by 6
TAB Sportsbet odds: Gold Coast $1.68, Cronulla $2.15 

CANBERRA v PARRAMATTA (Canberra Stadium, Saturday, 7:30pm) 

The last time these two teams met at Canberra Stadium, the year was 2007 and the Raiders ran out 38-10 victors. Dane Tilse and Alan Tongue are then only surviving Raiders from the match while Luke Burt, Ben Smith and Fuifui Moimoi are the only Eels still in the blue and gold. The Raiders have been simply dreadful this year and have looked a total mess without Josh Dugan and Terry Campese. They have suffered some cruel psychological blows in their last two losses to North Queensland and Brisbane and there still seems to be a fair bit of unrest in the nation's capital. The Eels have covered the start in each of their last four and look to have found some form, particularly in their ability to exploit the fringes. A Parramatta win in a high scoring shootout would not surprise. 

BPL Tip: Parramatta by 4
TAB Sportsbet odds: Canberra $1.68, Parramatta $2.15 

NEW ZEALAND v MELBOURNE (Mt Smart Stadium, Sunday, 12:00pm) 

Melbourne may sit atop the ladder this year but it was the New Zealand Warriors who were the first to expose the Storm's vulnerabilities and ruthlessly exploit them. The salary cap shedding had little impact on Melbourne's backline but it certainly took its toll on the club's forward pack in terms of class and depth. When the Warriors shocked the Storm in round seven 18-14, it was on the back of a big Warriors forward pack monstering the Storm. The likes of Sam Rapira, Feleti Mateo and Russell Packer wore down the Storm halves and fringe forwards and it told at the back-end when Melbourne had little in attack. The Warriors get it at home this time and their pack is as menacing as ever but three straight losses, averaging only 12.66 points, is hardly impressive form. If Melbourne take their full side, they should win though it would not be a shock if Craig Bellamy left a number of his Origin players home to rest. 

BPL Tip: Melbourne by 2
TAB Sportsbet odds: New Zealand $2.00, Melbourne $1.80 

PENRITH v NORTH QUEENSLAND (Centrebet Stadium, Sunday, 2:00pm) 

All interest in North Queensland and the rugby league world as a whole this week has centred on Johnathan Thurston and whether he'd be suspended for Origin III if found guilty. Thankfully, sanity prevailed - and he'll take his place in the Cowboys' side on Sunday. Thurston flattened referee Matt Cecchin as he attempted to tackle Warriors No.6 James Maloney and was subsequently slapped with a grade-two contrary conduct charge, suggesting the action was either reckless or deliberate. Thurston is central to the Cowboys' hopes this Sunday, as he nearly always is. The Cowboys are going so well with him calling the shots they are every chance of rolling the Panthers, despite the fact Penrith have won five of seven against North Queensland. But it is an unfamiliar time slot and the Panthers have been flogged on the training track all week by a new coach, so we're tipping the home team in a close one.  

BPL Tip: Penrith by 4
TAB Sportsbet odds: Penrith $1.55, North Queensland $2.45 

NEWCASTLE v SYDNEY ROOSTERS (Ausgrid Stadium, Sunday, 3:00pm) 

These two met only five weeks ago without their Origin stars and the result was a dour 12-10 win to the Sydney Roosters, who secured victory only because of the inept kicking game of Jarrod Mullen. Mullen did not find grass all day yet Newcastle nearly pinched the two premiership points. Newcastle have a much more potent halves combination this week with Kurt Gidley and debut sensation Ryan Stig, who looked like a seasoned veteran when shredding the Panthers fringes last Saturday with a try assist, an offload and three tackle breaks. The Roosters, meanwhile, continue to be an embarrassment in attack despite having two New South Wales representatives (halfback Mitchell Pearce and fullback Anthony Minichiello) and the reigning Dally M medallist (Todd Carney) in their backline. They have gone nine straight weeks without breaking 13 points, scoring only 14 tries over that period where they have averaged 8.9 points per match. The Knights are 5-1 against teams outside the eight this season and they should have too many points in them for the hapless Roosters. 

BPL Tip: Newcastle by 12
TAB Sportsbet odds: Newcastle $1.60, Sydney Roosters $2.30 

ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA v MANLY (WIN Stadium, Monday, 7:00pm) 

Easily the match of the round, St George-Illawarra taking on Manly is the game New South Wales Origin coach Ricky Stuart does not want to see. Precious as always, Stuart first lobbied the NRL to have it shifted from Monday night before imploring Blues players to withdraw from the match. Luckily, common sense seems to have prevailed and we have a crackerjack contest on the high rating Monday night that could see the winner move top if the Storm go down to New Zealand.  It is expected that this match will be won in the forwards with both backlines so evenly matched: each with an Australian fullback and three international three-quarters apiece to go with the Dragons' two representative halves against Manly's New Zealand five-eighth and their promising halfback Daly Cherry-Evans. The Dragons have a big class and mobility edge up front though and the likes of Mick Weyman, Dan Hunt and Ben Creagh (if fit) should be able to make sizable inroads in the Eagles pack. Manly have won six straight but they seem to have flattened out over the last few weeks. The Dragons, meanwhile, have just lost the competition lead and will be desperate to win it back against their leading premiership rival. 

BPL Tip: St George-Illawarra by 8
TAB Sportsbet odds: St George-Illawarra $1.68, Manly $2.15 

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