Written on Thursday, 30 June 2011 17:03
PARRAMATTA v BRISBANE (Parramatta Stadium, Friday, 7:45pm)
Parramatta's attacking plan is pretty simple. Throw the ball to Jarryd Hayne and hope for the best. They really don't have much else. So with Hayne on Origin duty, that leaves the Eels with not a lot of options when it comes to point scoring and the ability to win games. It is hard to see Jeff Robson, Luke Burt, Chris Walker and company orchestrating too many scoring plays. The Broncos have six players on Origin duty, losing a combined 1,052 games experience, but they remained well balanced with a solid forward pack, exciting young spine players Josh Hoffman and Corey Norman and a solid organiser in Peter Wallace. Brisbane might have just a little too much zip and a little too much upside for a Parramatta team that on paper is one of the worst in the NRL.
BPL Tip: Brisbane by 8
TAB Sportsbet odds: Parramatta $1.65, Brisbane $2.25
PENRITH v CANTERBURY (Centrebet Stadium, Saturday, 7:30pm)
Michael Ennis is central to everything Canterbury do. An up-and-down forward pack means his dummy half running is the key to laying Canterbury's go-forward foundation. His creativity out of dummy half is critical to Canterbury's ability to score tries. And with the Bulldogs having an inexperienced halves combination, Ennis is a central organiser. As such, the Bulldogs have lost all four matches over the last two seasons that the Canterbury rake has missed. This year, those losses have come against bottom-of-the-table teams Canberra and Cronulla, where Canterbury have managed only two tries in each of those matches. The Panthers have lost Luke Lewis, Petero Civoniceva and Michael Jennings to Origin but those losses won't have nearly the impact of Ennis' omission. Penrith have won 8 of 11 against Canterbury and the Bulldogs have only rolled the Panthers in one of their last four at Centrebet Stadium. With Canterbury in such poor form, the smart money is on Penrith to pull off the upset.
BPL Tip: Penrith by 6
TAB Sportsbet odds: Penrith $2.45, Canterbury $1.55
CRONULLA v SOUTH SYDNEY (Toyota Stadium, Sunday, 2:00pm)
South Sydney are stretched wide at present. They have been decimated by injury all year and now they have lost Dave Taylor to suspension to go along with Greg Inglis, playing for Queensland this week. Taylor was slow to start this year but has been in dominating form of late. His absence will be felt by the Bunnies, who have come to rely on his for go forward and fringe penetration of late. Replacing Taylor will be former Leeds player and brother of South Sydney international Sam, Luke Burgess, an interesting acquisition. The Sharks have lost Paul Gallen, arguably the best player in the competition this year, but retain a quality forward pack that includes four rep players. The Sharks have won two on end and should win the arm wrestle. If they can keep this from becoming a shootout, the Sharks can make it three consecutive wins for the first time since round 15, 2009.
BPL Tip: Cronulla by 4
TAB Sportsbet odds: Cronulla $2.15, South Sydney $1.68
ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA v NEWCASTLE (WIN Stadium, Sunday, 3:00pm)
Wayne Bennett is on his way to Newcastle next year and is already being hailed as the white knight who will lead the club to its third title but before he heads north, he is chasing back-to-back premierships with the Dragons. The Dragons rediscovered their form again on Monday night with a big win over Manly but their side has been decimated by seven Origin losses while the Knights have only captain Kurt Gidley and winger Akuila Uate on representative duty. There will be plenty of Newcastle players out to impress Bennett with those unsigned looking to win a contract and those who have been told they are unwanted looking to stick it to the supercoach. There will be plenty of Newcastle players with that extra bit of pep on Sunday afternoon. The Knights have won only three of 12 against the Dragons but they have claimed the last three Dragons home games. The Knights have won three of four and in such good form, particularly defensively, they can pull off the upset.
BPL Tip: Newcastle by 4
TAB Sportsbet odds: St George-Illawarra $1.68, Newcastle $2.15
SYDNEY ROOSTERS v CANBERRA (Sydney Football Stadium, Monday, 7:00pm)
The Roosters just go from bad to worse to downright squalid as they battle an historically bad form slump that has seen them fail to break through 13 points in 10 straight matches. Such a poor attacking record is unprecedented in the NRL era and it shows no sign of abating this week with Mitchell Pearce and Anthony Minichiello both donning the sky blue of New South Wales next Wednesday. The burden of turning this sinking ship around falls on the shoulders of former Raider Todd Carney, who has two measly try assists all season. There remains lingering resentment in the capital about Todd Carney's departure with many former teammates sure to lift against a player they consider selfish. The Roosters have won 18 of the last 24 against Canberra but the Raiders should have too much strength up front and too many points in them. Only a madman or a sado-masochist would get into the business of the Sydney Roosters at present.
BPL Tip: Canberra by 10
TAB Sportsbet odds: Sydney Roosters $1.95, Canberra $1.85
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