Tackle 1: Gidley the key to a Blues win

The health of Kurt Gidley will be critical to New South Wales' chances in winning the deciding Origin contest. New South Wales' win in game two signalled a major shift in the Origin balance of power with Ricky Stuart's small ball showing Queensland's vulnerability and how it could be successfully exploited. Queensland have not outcoached the Blues in any of their five series wins yet they now must rely on a strategy shift to beat New South Wales. The upper hand is now with the Blues but that advantage will be lost if Kurt Gidley does not overcome injury and take his place in Origin III. The importance of Gidley to Ricky Stuart's small-ball strategy cannot be underestimated. Gidley is a tempo man. After the sting has gone out of the game, Gidley replaces Michael Ennis and poses a far greater threat around the ruck. This forces the big Queensland forwards to be more concerned about the Blues' dummy-half running while they must also focus on the cut-back runners. Gidley is so full of energy and has such a multi-dimensional game that he poses a constant threat to the Maroons while simultaneously wearing down their sizable pack. New South Wales can win without Gidley but they will need to adopt a new strategy if they are to end Queensland's half-decade dominance. If Gidley plays, the Blues are going to be very hard to roll.

Tackle 2: Big Red the real deal

The right rein has been pulled by Ricky Stuart with his decision to drop Trent Merrin from the New South Wales team in place of Keith Galloway. Galloway has yet to win a bench spot with Stuart yet to decide between having a second big man in Keith Galloway or an extra backrower in Glenn Stewart but Galloway is certainly the preferred choice. He has been knocking on the door of rep selection for a number of years and may finally get his chance while he is in career best form. There has, arguably, been no stronger go-forward prop over the last six weeks. Going small worked in game two and it will work in game three but Stuart still needs two quality props and he needs to go with the big Tigers bookend.

Tackle 3: Ricky rattles Mal

Ricky Stuart has really found his way under his skin of rival coach Mal Meninga. Queenslanders have always loved their conspiracy theories and no doubt were clutching at same when Dave Taylor was suspended for five weeks. But for the first time in many years, the Queensland hierarchy seem overly sensitive with Mal Meninga suggesting throughout the week that his long-time friendship with Ricky Stuart was strained to the breaking point, primarily because Meninga blames Stuart for talk about Meninga not really being Queensland's coach. Meninga, of course, isn't Queensland's coach in the traditional sense and is merely a figurehead who plays no role either tactically or motivationally. These kind of mind games may just be enough to give the Blues the upper hand mentally heading into the series decider.

Tackle 4: Problems at Newcastle

The Tinkler Sports Group has copped a public flogging over the last week for their inability to produce the required funds to purchase the Newcastle Knights. TSG has not been able to provide the required cash and bank guarantee to purchase the club, seeking another extension. There is a good deal of speculation, however, that the true finances of the club were not revealed by the board when the Tinkler proposal was accepted. Nathan Tinkler is the best thing to happen to the Knights since Andrew Johns and if he takes a little longer to settle up, then so be it.

Tackle 5: Gus gets it right

Phil Gould has done extremely well to sign Ivan Cleary as coach from 2012 onwards and the Penrith Panthers will be a better club because of the signing. Cleary has a very good record at the Warriors, guiding the club to a 12-12 record or better in four of his five years at the helm, including three finals showings. The only year they missed out was in the season following Sonny Fai's tragic death. He is a tactically astute, organised, disciplined coach and gives the Panthers the structure the club has needed ever since Matt Elliott arrived.

Tackle 6: Kevin Moore is gone

The decision to start the inconsistent Ben Roberts ahead of workhorse lock David Stagg in Saturday night's horrifying loss to Penrith shows that Canterbury coach Kevin Moore is out of ideas and simply has to go. Reports suggest he has a week before being axed. A week is too long. Moore is not up to the Canterbury job. His players aren't responding, his tactics are uninspiring and his failure to understand the strengths and weaknesses of his players is abundantly apparent. If Canterbury are to salvage their season, Moore needs to be dumped immediately.

Origin III Prediction: New South Wales by 4