Written on Friday, 15 July 2011 10:39
NEW ZEALAND v CANTERBURY (Mt Smart Stadium, Friday, 6:35pm NZ time)
With such congestion down the southern end of the eight, this match could prove critical with the Warriors on 8-8 and the Bulldogs 7-9. Both teams are battling form issues and both teams sit at the crossroads of their 2011 campaigns. The Warriors ended a four game losing streak with a gritty win over the Titans last Friday night while Canterbury have struggled to just two wins in their last nine matches. The key to the Warriors victory was the return of Micheal Luck. He stiffened up their defence, something that will cause the lifeless Bulldogs attack no end of concern. The Bulldogs have won five of their last six against the Warriors in Auckland and are capable of an upset but the smart money will be on the Warriors collecting the points. Expect Manu Vatuvei to find some form against the small and slow Canterbury wingers as well.
BPL Tip: New Zealand by 6
TAB Sportsbet odds: New Zealand $1.50, Canterbury $2.60
BRISBANE v GOLD COAST (Suncorp Stadium, Friday, 7:35pm)
When the Brisbane Broncos and the first incarnation of the Gold Coast, the Giants, entered the NSWRL in 1988, they traversed very different paths. The Broncos, led by stars like Wally Lewis, Alan Langer, Gene Miles and Greg Dowling, won their first premiership match against defending premiers Manly, 44-10, on their way to winning their first six matches in front of home crowds often in excess of 15,000. The Giants, meanwhile, had claimed just a solitary draw in their first nine appearances, in front of crowds as low as 2,000 as the likes of Mike Eden, Ron Gibbs, Geoff Bagnall and Chris Close battled and battled and battled. So when the two met in round 10, it was arguably the upset of the season when the Giants shocked the Broncos 25-22. If the Titans were to roll the Broncos on Friday, the upset would not be quite as large but it would be in the same ballpark considering how the Titans are travelling this year. The Titans just have no attacking penetration and their fringe defence is embarrassing. Brisbane, with their six Origin stars expected to play, should have few problems with a Gold Coast team in a state of flux.
BPL Tip: Brisbane by 14
TAB Sportsbet odds: Brisbane $1.22, Gold Coast $4.25
SOUTH SYDNEY v SYDNEY ROOSTERS (ANZ Stadium, Saturday, 5:30pm)
The only two remaining foundation clubs who played in the inaugural 1908 season, the rivalry between South Sydney and the Sydney Roosters stretches back well over a century and the loathing between the two clubs is as great today as ever. The two have 32 premierships between them but, surprisingly, last met in a finals match 74 seasons ago in 1938, the Roosters triumphant 19-10. The feud really came to prominence in the 1950s as the two bordering clubs fought over territory like the Israelis and Palestinians and escalated in the 1970s when top South Sydney stars like Ron Coote, Mike Cleary, Elwyn Waters and Terry Fahey defected to the Tricolours. The enmity was reignited when Russell Crowe took ownership of the Bunnies and expressed his hatred of the Roosters in his "Book of Feuds". Recent history has certainly favoured the cashed-up Roosters, who have won 21 of 25 against Souths and with the Bunnies suffering from a long string of injuries, the struggling Roosters can win consecutive games for the first time in 2011. Todd Carney has played himself back into form and the Roosters team is starting to resemble that which played in the 2010 decider.
BPL Tip: Sydney Roosters by 4
TAB Sportsbet odds: South Sydney $1.85, Sydney Roosters $1.95
NORTH QUEENSLAND v WESTS TIGERS (Dairy Farmers Stadium, Saturday, 7:30pm)
When compiling a list of North Queensland's greatest ever wins, Monday night's victory over Newcastle sans Johnathan Thurston will rate in the top handful. Attempting to prove they could win both on the road and without their talismanic playmaker, the Cowboys shocked an in-form Newcastle team. It was a season defining victory, a culturally significant win for the club. A loss could have signalled a free-fall for the team currently in fifth but a win has Neil Henry's men confident they can get through this Thurston-less period without any significant damage being done. Brent Tate returns this weekend, making his long-awaited debut for the club, while boom backrower Tariq Sims returns on the bench, such is the strength of the Cowboys pack at present. With the Tigers in a state of disarray as internal fractures cruel their 2011 campaign, the Cowboys can make it eight straight at home. Only a sadomasochist could get involved with the Tigers in their current state despite the fact they have won 10 of 13 against North Queensland.
BPL Tip: North Queensland by 4
TAB Sportsbet odds: North Queensland $2.15, Wests Tigers $1.68
PENRITH v PARRAMATTA (Centrebet Stadium, Saturday, 7:30pm)
Before these two met in the preseason, Penrith centre Michael Jennings declared his hatred for Parramatta. "If you come through the Penrith juniors, you're brought up to hate Parra," Jennings said. "That's how I was brought up." There is no love lost in the battle of Sydney's west and with Michael Jennings returning from a long injury layoff this week, there is sure to be plenty of fire in this highly anticipated fixture. The last time these two met at Penrith Park, a record crowd turned out to see the Panthers jump to a 22-0 lead but inspired by the brilliance of Jarryd Hayne, the Eels pegged Penrith back to win 34-28. Stephen Kearney shifted Hayne to five-eighth last week and the Eels looked much more dangerous and even though Hayne will wear the No.1 jersey this week, he is likely to shift to pivot. That positional switch could be enough to see the Eels claim bragging rights in this fiery local derby.
BPL Tip: Parramatta by 4
TAB Sportsbet odds: Penrith $1.68, Parramatta $2.15
CANBERRA v MELBOURNE (Canberra Stadium, Sunday, 2:00pm)
The Raiders get star fullback Josh Dugan back this week after a five-week absence for only his seventh game of the 2011 season. It is about the only good news the Raiders faithful will get this week. Youngsters Josh Papalii and Reece Robinson have been ruled out with injury, the Storm have a dominant 16 wins in their last 18 matches against Canberra and Melbourne sit atop the premiership ladder. When these two met in round 10, the Raiders shocked the Storm 20-12 but such an upset is unlikely to happen again. The last time the Storm lost two games in the regular season to a team who didn't make the eight was in 2005 when Melbourne lost both matches to Penrith. Craig Bellamy is renowned for his ability to bounce back against any conqueror. The likes of Gareth Widdop are going to have a field day hitting the fringes.
BPL Tip: Melbourne by 12
TAB Sportsbet odds: Canberra $2.40, Melbourne $1.57
NEWCASTLE v MANLY (Ausgrid Stadium, Sunday, 3:00pm)
The greatest match these two ever played was in 1997, the ARL Grand Final, where a sharp Andrew Johns move sent Darren Albert over for the decisive try after the final siren. Since then, these two clubs have been inextricably linked, united in history after one of the great deciders, arguably second in excitement to only the unparalleled 1989 Grand Final. One of the young halves playing in this match will be looking to produce something just as brilliant with Kurt Gidley's injury meaning Jarrod Mullen is the only half over the age of 22 at a still young 24 years of age with partner Ryan Stig (21) and opponents Kieran Foran (21) and Daly Cherry-Evans (22) all babies. Kieran Foran, the new favourite for the Dally M Medal, is the most likely to step up and take charge of this game after another match-winning performance but Ryan Stig, only five games into his first grade career, should not be forgotten. Stig plays like a young Brad Fittler and can carve a lazy defensive team to shreds, a problem Manly could face with their lumbering pack. This should be a cracking game and with the last nine matches between these two going to the home team, Newcastle are the tip though it should be noted that the Knights are 5-7 with Mullen this year and 3-1 without him.
BPL Tip: Newcastle by 2
TAB Sportsbet odds: Newcastle $2.75, Manly $1.45
ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA v CRONULLA (WIN Jubilee, Monday, 7:00pm)
There are few rivalries as savage as the one between the Dragons and the Sharks and few as long standing. When the Sharks were born in 1967, it was against the wishes of the Dragons brass, who fought violently against the inclusion of a Cronulla team. A vicious rivalry was born but it would take 10 games and five seasons for the Sharks to finally beat their big brother. That dynamic still exists over 40 years on. When these two met in round two, it was expected that the Dragons would rout the Sharks. The defending premiers had beaten Cronulla easily the previous four times, allowing the Sharks only three tries over that time. The Sharks were the wooden spoon favourites and had been flogged by the Raiders in the opening round. But in driving rain, the Sharks pulled off the upset of the year when shocking the Dragons 16-10. The Dragons would go on to win nine straight while the Sharks lost eight of their next 10. That is the kind of rivalry this is. Both teams always rise to the occasion. While the Dragons should win this, Cronulla have won four of their last five matches with Chad Townsend at halfback, this game should be close.
BPL Tip: St George-Illawarra by 6
TAB Sportsbet odds: St George-Illawarra $1.33, Cronulla $3.25
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