NEWCASTLE v SOUTH SYDNEY (Ausgrid Stadium, Friday, 7:35pm)

Finals have not been a happy time for these two teams over the last decade. South Sydney, of course, have played in only one final since 1989 and have not won an end-of-season game since '87, getting thumped in 2007 by Manly. Since winning the premiership in 2001, the Knights' finals performances have been only marginally better. Newcastle have qualified for the finals in four of the nine seasons since their last premiership but have won only one finals match, losing five of their six played. Bar a most unlikely event (a draw or a Canterbury victory over Canberra by 60-plus), these two teams are playing off for eighth spot, reminiscent of the days when rugby league did actually defer to the midweek playoff to determine semi-finalists, the last of which was Western Suburbs' controversial 19-14 win over the Bulldogs in 1991. Newcastle have stumbled horribly in losing their last three but with Greg Inglis out and South Sydney's propensity to lose big games, Newcastle should fall into the honour of being hammered by Melbourne in week one of the finals. The Knights have won 10 of 11 at Ausgrid Stadium against the Bunnies and with a decent kicking game and early ball to the likes of Adam MacDougall and Chris Houston, that should become 11 from 12.

BPL Tip: Newcastle by 7
TAB Sportsbet odds: Newcastle $1.90, South Sydney $1.90

Wayne Bennett's team managed to break a five-game losing streak against the Warriors last Sunday and can keep alive their slight hopes for a home final with a win over Penrith on Friday night. More importantly for the Dragons, they can build some momentum with a quality win over the Panthers, whom they have a 15-7 all-time superiority against including a 4-1 record at Wollongong. Penrith ended their own five-game losing streak last Saturday when a Luke Walsh field goal spoiled Alan Tongue's home farewell, but the club has been wrecked by injury with Petero Civoniceva and Trent Waterhouse the latest casualties, with both seemingly having played their last in Penrith colours. The Dragons have too much class to lose this one.

BPL Tip: St George-Illawarra by 16
TAB Sportsbet odds: St George-Illawarra $1.15, Penrith $5.25

NEW ZEALAND v NORTH QUEENSLAND (Mt Smart Stadium, Saturday, 5:30pm)

The Warriors and the Cowboys have met only once in the finals. The year was 2007, and in a day match in the Townsville heat, North Queensland smoked the Warriors from the paddock 49-12. Ivan Cleary certainly hasn't forgotten that match and is desperate to catch the Cowboys at home if the two do meet in the finals. Both can finish in the top four but both will need a break to do so with the Cowboys (fifth) needing to pick up 17 points differential on the Wests Tigers while the Warriors (seventh) need the Tigers and Dragons to suffer shock losses. The Warriors have won four straight at Mt Smart Stadium but the Cowboys have won 10 of their last 14 against New Zealand and match up surprisingly well with the three-quarter line set to cause the Warriors' edges trouble.

BPL Tip: North Queensland by 2
TAB Sportsbet odds: New Zealand $1.42, North Queensland $2.85

CRONULLA v WESTS TIGERS (Toyota Park, Saturday, 7:30pm)

In recent times, Cronulla has been a home-away-from-home for Tigers discards with John Morris and Dean Collis set to be joined by Bryce Gibbs and Andrew Fifita next season. There is no doubt all those who cross from the Tigers to the Sharks soon learn they are with "little brother" with the Tigers having a dominant record against Cronulla since 2003, winning 11 of the 12 matches played including the last five at Shark Park. In the box seat for a top four spot and riding a seven game winning streak, the Tigers should win in a canter. Their only concern will be complacency as they played a little side-to-side against the Titans at times on Monday.

BPL Tip: Wests Tigers by 18
TAB Sportsbet odds: Cronulla $4.00, Wests Tigers $1.25

GOLD COAST v PARRAMATTA (Skilled Park, Saturday, 7:30pm)

The Titans and Eels will play their first meaningful match in months with the two set to fight it out for the wooden spoon on Saturday night, the loser almost certainly consigned to the honour of the worst team in the NRL and the winner avoiding a most embarrassing addition to the trophy cabinet. Both sides have few claims to victory and a wooden spoon for each wouldn't be undeserved. The Titans have probably been slightly more inept, with both the worst attack and defence in the League, having allowed 30-plus points on eight occasions while breaking 20 only four times. Parramatta have been a lot more competitive, losing eight games by less than a converted try and defeating three top-eight teams, but they haven't won away from Parramatta Stadium since round one and they have managed only one win since round 11. Wooden spoons are common to both districts. The Eels have won the second most in League history with 11 (behind only Western Suburbs' 17) while the old Gold Coast Seagulls won three in an existence that lasted only a decade. The pride of Nathan Hindmarsh should be enough to lift the Eels off the bottom rung of the ladder.

BPL Tip: Parramatta by 4
TAB Sportsbet odds: Gold Coast $1.85, Parramatta $1.95

CANTERBURY v CANBERRA (ANZ Stadium, Sunday, 2:00pm)

Canterbury may well be required to channel their inner Harlem Globetrotter with a miracle victory in excess of something around the 60-point mark their only hope of a achieving a miraculous finals berth, pending the result of the Knights-Rabbitohs outcome on Friday night. If the Bulldogs are to pull off the miracle of all miracles against any team, they will fancy it being against the Raiders, who have the second worst defence in the League combined with the fourth worst attack. David Furner's team have allowed an average of 30.3 points in their last four road games and have broken 18 only once in their last eight. The Bulldogs will enter this free and easy and if the game opens up, Ben Barba and Josh Morris will both slice the ordinary Raiders defence to shreds.

BPL Tip: Canterbury by 26
TAB Sportsbet odds: Canterbury $1.33, Canberra $3.25

BRISBANE v MANLY (Suncorp Stadium, Sunday, 4:00pm)

In 1988, the Broncos played their first ever match against the defending premiers Manly at Lang Park and shocked the champions 44-10. Darren Lockyer, who will play his last regular season match on Sunday, played his first game against the Sea Eagles in 1996, Lockyer coming out on top 11-4. When Lockyer first played Manly at Lang Park, the new Broncos five-eighth scored a try and booted five-goals in a 14-point victory. The three times these two have met in a finals match (1990, 1993, 1994), the Broncos have won all three by more than eight points. Brisbane have a history of winning big matches against Manly. Darren Lockyer has a history of showing up against the Eagles. In the skipper's celebration match, it would seem most unlikely that the Broncos would go down to the Eagles in an important match that has been sold out for weeks. Manly have won five of six against Brisbane but the Broncos are riding a six-game winning streak at Suncorp Stadium and Manly are 3-5 outside of Sydney this season and with Des Hasler's side gutted by suspension, this should be a comfortable Brisbane win.

BPL Tip: Brisbane by 16
TAB Sportsbet odds: Brisbane $1.20, Manly $4.50

SYDNEY ROOSTERS v MELBOURNE (Sydney Football Stadium, Sunday, 7:00pm)

The Melbourne Storm will likely have their fourth minor premiership in six years stitched up by the time they run out to take on the Sydney Roosters on Sunday evening but even if Manly do shock the Broncos, the Storm can collect the J.J Giltinan Shield with a win over the Tricolours. Since winning their first minor title in 2006, the Storm have not lost a last round game, winning by an average score of 37.2 to 6.8. Craig Bellamy takes pride in the minor premiership and he knows the need to hit the finals running. Their victims this year will be the Roosters. Brian Smith's team have been in reasonable nick of late with four wins in their last five and three straight at the Sydney Football Stadium but with Cooper Cronk returning to the Storm lineup, Melbourne should win and win well.

BPL Tip: Melbourne by 12
TAB Sportsbet odds: Sydney Roosters $3.25, Melbourne $1.33