WESTS TIGERS v ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA (ANZ Stadium, Friday, 7:45pm)

Last Meeting: In a surprise result, the Tigers upset the Dragons 16-14 with the key moment of the game coming when Benji Marshall exploited the limp defence of an injured Jamie Soward. 

Last Finals Meeting: The Tigers and the Dragons met in a classic preliminary final last season with the Dragons squeaking home 13-12 on the back of a Jamie Soward field goal. The Tigers faithful still believe they got a bum rap from the referees in that one while the season of redemption for the Dragons was very nearly ended in front of 71,000 fans that evening. The winner of that match was destined to enter the Grand Final as a pronounced favourite. 

The Numbers that Matter: The Dragons have won four of five contests against the Tigers since Wayne Bennett took the reins and have never allowed the Tigers more than three tries over that timeframe. Bennett and Tigers coach Tim Sheens, the two most experienced mentors in the history of the game with over 1200 games experience between them, have met 41 times with Bennett holding a 28-11-2 advantage with Sheens successful only four times in their last 25 encounters dating back to 1996.  In finals, however, Sheens holds a 3-2 advantage. The Dragons have won 11 of their last 12 at ANZ Stadium while the Tigers have won only four of 15 at the venue and are riding a four game losing streak at the ground. 

The Issues: Form is the major concern for the Dragons and Wayne Bennett. The Dragons have won only four of their last 13 and have not won in their last five outside of Wollongong/Kogarah. Playmakers Jamie Soward and Ben Hornby have been down on form while the once dominant forward pack has been out-muscled in recent times. The Dragons have put together two scrappy wins but will need to improve further to trouble the Tigers. 

The worry for the Tigers is their run into the finals. The Tigers have not played a game against a finalist in their last four matches and have not had a hard hitout in over a month. They could be underdone for what should be a real grinding affair. 

Breakdown: This is an interesting clash between a quality team sweet on injuries but not quite in form against an outfit riding an eight game win streak but who hasn't been tested. It is a battle between a defensive-minded outfit and one built on flair. It is a clash of champion against contender. The Dragons are built for finals football and if they can get back to their best they should get the Tigers through the middle. The defence of Robert Lui is a major weakness while the Tim Moltzen is not a threat from the back. The Tigers should be in this for a long way but the class and experience of Wayne Bennett's men should tell in the dying stages. 

BPL Tip: St George-Illawarra by 4
TAB Sportsbet odds: Wests Tigers $2.05, St George-Illawarra $1.75

BRISBANE v NEW ZEALAND (Suncorp Stadium, Saturday, 6:30pm)

Last Meeting: A Peter Wallace field goal was the difference when the Broncos and Warriors met in round 22. The Warriors got out to an 18-8 lead after Shaun Johnson scored the try of the season but the Broncos ground their way back into the match to claim victory in one of the most exciting games of 2011.  

Last Finals Meeting: The Broncos and the Warriors have never met in finals football in the 16 seasons the Warriors have been in the competition. 

The Numbers that Matter: The Broncos have won seven of the last 13 clashes between the two teams but interestingly, not a single season series has been split since 2001 with one team or the other sweeping. The Warriors have covered every game since their round 17 bye. The Broncos have won seven straight at Suncorp Stadium and have scored 20-plus in six of those while allowing opponents to hit 20 only twice. The Broncos are 3-2 over the last two seasons without Sam Thaiday. The Warriors have won two of their last six in Australia. 

The Issues: Team selection has been the biggest concern for Brisbane this week with the loss of Sam Thaiday to suspension, the season-ending injury to livewire fullback Josh Hoffman, the return of international centre Justin Hodges and the shuffling of the outside backs. There is no doubt the losses of Thaiday and Hoffman hurt a lot. The Broncos lack a dynamic type without Thaiday and Hoffman is an electric player who provides an outstanding kick return as well as support play. The inclusion of Hodges is also a worry. Hodges is a great player but he has had hamstring worries all year and he seems to be rushing back for this. 

For the Warriors, their main issue is the youth and inexperience of their halves. James Maloney has been the form five-eighth of the NRL in recent months while Shaun Johnson is an out-and-out match winner but Maloney has played only 51 games and two full seasons while Johnson is only 12 games into a promising career. Ivan Cleary will be hoping the pressure of a big game doesn't get to the young Warriors playmakers. 

Breakdown: The Broncos go into this deserved favourites but they are vulnerable against a Warriors team who have had stability in all the key positions and are getting everything out of their most dynamic players. Fullback Kevin Locke has taken his game to the next level, James Maloney and Shaun Johnson have formed a dynamic partnership and Feleti Mateo is in career best form, finally showing some discernment with his offloading. There are worries with the wing defence and positioning of the Broncos and Manu Vatuvei will exploit any wing weaknesses. This game should be a real cracker with the Warriors perhaps having just a little too much upside in their key positions and a little too much grunt in their pack for the Broncos. 

BPL Tip: New Zealand by 2
TAB Sportsbet odds: Brisbane $1.68, New Zealand $2.15

MANLY v NORTH QUEENSLAND (Sydney Football Stadium, Saturday, 8:30pm)

Last Meeting: Manly downed North Queensland 24-4 on a sopping Sydney night with the Cowboys entering the match without Johnathan Thurston, Matt Scott, Brent Tate or Willie Tonga. 

Last Finals Meeting: In the 2007 preliminary final, Manly blew the Cowboys off the park 28-6 at the Sydney Football Stadium. Manly have six holdovers from that match while the Cowboys have five. 

The Numbers that Matter: The Cowboys have performed well on the road this year (5-7 away from home) but have struggled in Sydney, defeating only Cronulla and accumulating a 1-6 record in Sin City. The Sea Eagles have won all 15 matches in Sydney this year. Manly are complaining about a move to the SFS but they have won their last two finals matches there and have not lost to the Cows in Sydney since 2005. Manly have won four of their last six against North Queensland. 

The Issues: Manly have a big task in front of them playing without Glenn Stewart, their key playmaking forward who very nearly, had he kept his fists to himself, pulled off one of the great Dally M upsets. Stewart is a heavy defender and hard worker but his ability to act as a link, particularly down the right hand edge, has been key for the Eagles who will now need Shane Rodney to step up to the mark. 

Form and particularly road form is again the key issue for the Cowboys. North Queensland have limped into the finals with only a win over Cronulla in their last five matches, a run that included three straight road losses, two of which came against teams that missed the eight. 

Breakdown: Des Hasler has rung in the changes for Manly as the Sea Eagles get a number of players back from suspension and injury with Brett Stewart, Kieran Foran and Will Hopoate all back in the maroon and white. The Cowboys have had a good run with injury all year and are missing only Tariq Sims from their strongest 17. Manly showed a lot of heart against Brisbane when understrength, going close to pulling off the upset. The Cowboys will push the Eagles with four of the best defensive centres in the game squaring off but it is Manly's ability to threaten back on the inside with hard running forwards like Anthony Watmough and Shane Rodney that gives Manly the edge, as does the decentralisation of playmaking talent. The Cowboys will have to find another level if they are to cause the boilover and they are probably an attacking hooker/top class five-eighth short. 

BPL Tip: Manly by 4
TAB Sportsbet odds: Manly $1.45, North Queensland $2.75

MELBOURNE v NEWCASTLE (AAMI Park, Sunday, 4:00pm)

Last Meeting: Melbourne hosted Newcastle in round eight at AAMI Park and the Storm ran out comfortable 42-12 winners, scoring 24 unanswered points in the last 22 minutes. 

Last Finals Meeting: These two have met only once previously in a final: Newcastle downing defending premiers Melbourne 30-16 in 2000, eliminating the reigning champions in the first week of the finals.

The Numbers that Matter: Melbourne have won 12 of 16 against Newcastle and the Knights have not won in the southern capital since 2004, losing by an average of 29.43 in their seven matches in Melbourne since. The Storm have won 16 of their last 18 at AAMI Park and have allowed opponents no more than one try in eight of their last 13. 

The Issues: Melbourne's depth has been brought into question with the suspension of Adam Blair and the injury to five-eighth Gareth Widdop. Do the Storm have the troops outside of the Big Three to keep on winning? This week, it would seem likely. 

For Newcastle, it is a matter of how they manage to find enough points to win. The Knights have been held to 12 points or fewer on 10 occasions while the Storm allowed opponents more than one try only twice in their last 10 games where Smith, Slater and Cronk have played. 

Breakdown: If there was a "comeback of the year" award in rugby league, the Melbourne Storm as an entity would win it, bouncing back from last year's controversy and the loss of so many big name players to win the minor premiership and sweep the Dally M awards. The Storm, so focussed over the course of the year, are unlikely to take the Knights easily. Over the last three years, the eighth-placed team has beaten the minor premier twice but those teams (New Zealand 2008, Parramatta 2009) hit the finals in a hot vein of form while the Knights have stumbled into this year's playoffs, winning only their critical clash against South Sydney last Friday in the last month. Melbourne are vulnerable against big, quality forwards but the Knights seem to lack those outside of Chris Houston. The Storm should win this in a canter.

BPL Tip: Melbourne by 20
TAB Sportsbet odds: Melbourne $1.26, Newcastle $3.75