WESTS TIGERS v NEW ZEALAND (Sydney Football Stadium, Friday, 7:45pm)

Last Meeting: The Warriors led 22-4 when Manu Vatuvei scored in the 59th minute when New Zealand hosted the Tigers in round 14 but the Tigers launched an astonishing comeback, scoring four tries in the next 11 minutes to run out 26-22 victors. Blake Ayshford was magnificent while Benji Marshall was integral in the comeback. 

Last Finals Meeting: The Tigers and the Warriors have never met in finals football before with 2010 being the first year both teams actually made the playoffs in the same year. 

The Numbers That Matter: The Tigers have won their last three against the Warriors and are currently riding a nine game winning streak. The Warriors failed to cover the start last weekend for the first time since round 16 against Brisbane. The Warriors have bounced back to win only twice following their last eleven 20-point defeats covering the last three years. The Warriors are coming into this off their biggest loss since round 12, 2010 when they were beaten 50-6 by the Wests Tigers at Campbelltown. The Warriors have lost three of their last four in Australia. The Tigers are second in the NRL in tackle breaks with 975 and lead the league in line breaks in 118.

The Issues: The biggest worry for Tim Sheens is the return of Chris Lawrence. Lawrence is an outstanding player but he took a couple of games to warm to the task after his last injury and without much playing time this year his timing could be off. Lack of experience at the key positions is all of a sudden a major issue for Ivan Cleary after Shaun Johnson, James Maloney and Kevin Locke all went missing against Brisbane. Bouncing back from a 30-point defeat is going to be tough for such young players. The confidence of Manu Vatuvei is also a problem. Devastating at both his best and worst, The Beast is sure to be targeted by Tim Sheens after six errors against the Broncos. The inclusion of Krisnan Inu due to injuries to Shaun Berrigan and Joel Moon is also a worry with Inu in ordinary form in his limited first grade showings this year. 

Breakdown: It may be a generalisation but it is one based in a fair mire of truth: the Warriors are a confidence team. And after last Saturday's derailment against the Broncos where their most damaging player had a career-worst game and all the key position players went quiet, it is hard to see the Warriors entering this elimination final with much confidence at all. With the Tigers in such good form and playing with such a stout defence, they should beat the Warriors by applying constant pressure in the middle-third and picking on the Warriors three-quarter line. The Warriors are going to need to find plenty to get to a preliminary final. 

BPL Tip: Wests Tigers by 12
TAB Sportsbet odds: Wests Tigers $1.33, New Zealand $3.25

BRISBANE v ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA (Suncorp Stadium, Saturday, 6:45pm)

Last Meeting: Three tries in nine minutes just before the break gave the Broncos a 14-4 half-time lead over the Dragons in their round 15 encounter, Brisbane going on to win 21-14. Darren Lockyer was magnificent, putting on three tries in a classic display. It was the first time the Dragons looked to be in real danger this year and the first time they lost back-to-back matches in 2011. They have never really been on an even keel since. 

Last Finals Meeting: The capitulation of the Dragons' 2009 campaign was completed when the Broncos upset the minor premiers at Lang Park 24-10. Karmichael Hunt scored a double for the Broncos as Wayne Bennett's debut season ended at the hands of his former club. The Broncos bashed the Dragons out of the contest with Ashton Sims playing the game of his life. Brisbane would be eliminated a week later by Melbourne but coach Ivan Henjak would see only another season of action while the Dragons would go on to atone in 2010 with the premiership. 

The Numbers That Matter: Brisbane have defeated the Dragons in four of their last five encounters. The Dragons have not won away from home since round 10 when they defeated Canterbury at ANZ and have not won outside of New South Wales since round three when they rolled New Zealand at Mt Smart. Brisbane have won eight straight at Suncorp Stadium. Wayne Bennett has won only two of 13 matches between his last two teams. The Broncos and Dragons (St George and St George-Illawarra) have met five times in finals football including two Grand Finals with the Broncos successful on four occasions including both the 1992 and 1993 premiership deciders. 

The Issues: Brisbane's "Drive for Darren" continued on in fine form last week with the loss of Sam Thaiday seemingly having little impact on Brisbane's fortunes. Against a stronger opponent, the Broncos are going to miss Thaiday. The push for Lockyer as well should also be something Anthony Griffin addresses. He is no doubt an inspirational figure but the Broncos boss needs to ensure there is no panic if the match gets close. Gerard Beale played well in place of Josh Hoffman last week but will need to lift another level against the kicking game of Jamie Soward. The form of the outside backs should be Wayne Bennett's biggest worry. With the exception of Jason Nightingale, the three-quarter line is playing dreadfully in both attack and defence. The Dragons are vulnerable on the fringes with Bennett needing to figure out a way to stop the likes of hard running backrowers Matt Gillett and Ben Te'o. Road form is also a major worry.

Breakdown: The Broncos are an underrated team. With some books, they are out to fifth favourites for the title when they should be joint premiership elects with Melbourne. Brisbane have the right blend of youth and experience and they match up extraordinarily well against the Dragons. At home and with Darren Lockyer dreaming of a fairytale finish, the Broncos should end Wayne Bennett's career at the Dragons with a defeat with Matt Gillett shaping as the key player. Chris Heighington and Liam Fulton shredded the Dragons last week and Gillett is capable of the same. Unless the Dragons edges can find marked improvement in a week, the Broncos should prove too strong. 

BPL Tip: Brisbane by 7
TAB Sportsbet odds: Brisbane $1.68, St George-Illawarra $2.15