MANLY v BRISBANE (Sydney Football Stadium, Friday, 7:45pm)

Last Meeting: Brisbane defeated Manly 18-10 at Lang Park in the final round of the regular season. The match was a farewell to Darren Lockyer while the Sea Eagles were given little hope as they suffered the consequences of the infamous Brookvale Brawl with Glenn Stewart, Brett Stewart, Kieran Foran, William Hopoate and Darcy Lussick all out due to suspension or injury. Under the circumstances, it was a sterling effort. The match also saw Sam Thaiday, who returns this week, suspended for a dangerous tackle and Broncos fullback Josh Hoffman ruled out for the season with a knee injury.

Last Finals Meeting: Oddly enough, considering how successful these two have been for much of the last 20 years, Brisbane and Manly have only met three times in finals matches, the last being in 1994. The Broncos have beaten Manly in all three finals matches, downing them 16-4 in 1994 in the minor preliminary semi-final on the back of tries from Steve Renouf, Michael Hancock and Peter Ryan. 

The Numbers That Matter: Brisbane enter this on the back of an eight game winning streak while Manly have won eight of their last 10. Manly are a perfect 16-0 in Sydney this year, keeping opponents to an average of 10.67 points per game in their last six in their home city, while the Broncos are 3-1 in the Silver City in 2011. Manly are only 4-4 in their last eight at the Sydney Football Stadium while the Broncos are 10-1-2 at the ground since 2004. Brisbane are 15-7 all-time at the SFS in finals matches. Manly have won five of their last seven against the Broncos.  The Broncos are 3-11 without Darren Lockyer over the last three seasons. 

The Issues: The biggest issue in Brisbane and Australian sport this week has been the health of Darren Lockyer. In one of the great displays of toughness ever shown, Lockyer kicked the winning field goal for Brisbane in extra-time against St George-Illawarra only 10 minutes after fracturing his cheekbone, which required three titanium plates to be inserted. It was thought Lockyer would play when he flew to Sydney at low altitude in a helicopter but he was ruled out on Wednesday morning. There are still some hopes that he will pull a Willis Reed and play on Friday but the odds of an astonishing comeback seem long. How Brisbane react to playing without their skipper and key playmaker will be at the forefront of Anthony Griffin's thinking this week. With Matt Gillett likely to start at five-eighth, the Broncos are likely to play a defence-oriented game, making an ability to score a major focus over the backend of the week. 

The biggest concern for Manly is cohesion. The Sea Eagles lost in the last round to Brisbane, didn't get going until half-time against the Cowboys and then had to endure a week off. With no Glenn Stewart to boot, there are major concerns about how the Manly attack will play against Brisbane. 

Breakdown: It is rare for an outsider to dictate how a match will be played but it will be how Brisbane react to Darren Lockyer's withdrawal that will decide the first team into the Grand Final. There is no more inspirational figure in the game and if the Broncos dig in and pledge to "win this for Locky" in the vein of the "win this for the Gipper" speech then even without his on-field direction the Broncos will be very hard to beat. If they get mired in the disappointment of losing their on-field general and panic about the prospect of not giving Lockyer a farewell match then this will be Manly's to lose. Anthony Griffin is a strong young coach and the former should be expected more than the latter. Where Brisbane will try and win this is in the middle. They have a major edge in the forward pack with the likes of Ben Hannant, Sam Thaiday and Corey Parker set to dominate a rather listless Manly pack whose only dangerous weapon is Anthony Watmough. In what should be a dour struggle, Brisbane look to have the upper-hand even without Darren Lockyer. 

BPL Tip: Brisbane by 2
TAB Sportsbet odds: Manly $1.55, Brisbane $2.45

MELBOURNE v NEW ZEALAND (AAMI Park, Saturday, 7:45pm)

Last Meeting: The Storm and the Warriors have met twice this season, splitting the series 1-1. In round seven the Warriors shocked the Storm at AAMI Park 18-14 in front of a 23,000-strong crowd. In the return meeting, Billy Slater scored a double and the Storm went on to win 16-8.

Last Finals Meeting: The Storm and the Warriors met in what was expected to be a routine 1 v 8 qualifying final in 2008 at Olympic Park. To that point, no eighth-placed team had beaten a minor premier but in one of the great finals upsets, the Warriors left victorious 18-15. The match will forever be remembered for the Michael Witt try with the Warriors five-eighth holding the ball aloft and running wildly in the in-goal before grounding the pill for the match-winner. It was the only finals meeting between the two teams.  

The Numbers That Matter: The Warriors have the best recent record of any team in the competition against the Storm with Craig Bellamy's men winning only three of their last eight against the Warriors. Of the last four played between the two in Melbourne, the Storm have been victorious in only one of them. The Storm have a 68-10-1 record at home over the last six seasons and are 19-4 at AAMI Park since moving into their new ground. Melbourne have gone 10-2 at home this year and have kept opponents to fewer than eight points on 8 of 12 occasions. Opposition teams have averaged 9.38 points at AAMI Park this season. The Warriors have a more than respectable 12-13 road record over the last two seasons. New Zealand have covered every start bar once since their round 17 bye. 

The Issues: For Melbourne, one of the biggest concerns will be the huge contingent of Warriors fans that will be in attendance. The Warriors have such a good record in Melbourne because of the big contingent of Kiwi expatriates and on Saturday night there is sure to be more Warriors fans in attendance that Storm devotees. How Melbourne react to this will go a long way to deciding who is playing off in this year's Grand Final. 

The biggest worry for Ivan Cleary will again be the inexperience of his four key position players. Kevin Locke, James Maloney, Shaun Johnson and Aaron Heremaia all have tremendous potential but they match-up against three of the best five players in the competition in Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk as well as outstanding rookie Gareth Widdop. If they go in unintimidated they have the upside and dynamism to take it to the Storm but if they go into their shells, as they did against Brisbane, then the Big Three from the Storm are going to grind the Warriors down. 

Breakdown: The Storm's major weakness this season is a lack of size and aggression in their forward pack. That has been exacerbated by the suspension of Adam Blair. The likes of Sika Manu and Kevin Proctor have the right kind of mongrel but the front row is very much a "solid-at-best" rotation that does not match up well against a Warriors team built on feistiness and aggression. Sam Rapira had an outstanding game when these two last met in Melbourne and he, Russell Packer and Feleti Mateo will all like their chances against the Storm's pack. The Warriors are every chance here. They match up extremely well and can take advantage of the Storm's weakness. But betting against Melbourne at home with the controversy of 2010 still firmly at the forefront of their mind is not a wise move. The Storm don't lose preliminary finals and have three of the best players in the game so in a close one, expect the experience of the Storm to win out. Just.  

BPL Tip: Melbourne by 1
TAB Sportsbet odds: Melbourne $1.40, New Zealand $3.00