MANLY v NEW ZEALAND (ANZ Stadium, Sunday, 5:00pm)

Last Meeting: Manly and New Zealand have met only once this year with the Sea Eagles winning the round six encounter 20-10 at Brookvale Oval. The Warriors scored first through Lewis Brown but Manly scored three tries in eight minutes just before the break to go into half-time 14-4. The match was secured when Joe Galuvao scored on 54 minutes. William Hopoate and Matt Ballin starred for the Sea Eagles while Sam Rapira and Feleti Mateo were the best for New Zealand.

Last Finals Meeting: Manly and the Warriors have only met once before in finals football with the Sea Eagles decimating the Warriors 32-6 in the 2008 preliminary final at the Sydney Football Stadium. Manly entered the match after a week off while the Warriors were coming off shock wins over Melbourne and the Sydney Roosters and the Sea Eagles were on from the start, eventually running in seven tries to one to annihilate New Zealand. Brett Stewart scored a double and Matt Orford played in the form that won him the Dally M Medal that season. The Eagles went on to win the Grand Final 40-0 over Melbourne. Manly have eight players who turned out in that match playing on Sunday while the Warriors have six.

The Numbers That Matter: Manly have a 13-7 all-time record against New Zealand and a 10-3 record in their last 13. In their last 12 matches however, Manly have rolled the Warriors by more than 10 only twice. Manly have won 6 of their last 7 and have covered five straight while the Warriors have covered 11 of their last 12. Manly are 17-0 in Sydney this year while New Zealand are 3-3 in Sin City. The Warriors are 13-13 in Australia over the last two seasons. Manly are 9-7 all-time at ANZ Stadium while the Warriors are 6-1-7 at the venue. Manly have 10 players who have played in a total of 19 Grand Finals while the Warriors have three players who have played in three Grand Finals and lack a premiership winner. The Manly spine have 25 games of finals experience while the Warriors have 15. No team in the NRL-era has won a premiership from outside the top four. The Manly halves combination have scored 13 tries and laid on 33 try assists in 47 combined appearances while the Warriors halves have scored 14 tries and set up a further 27 in 35 matches.

Selection News: Glenn Stewart and Darcy Lussick return from suspension for Manly with Stewart returning as starting lock for Shane Rodney while Lussick joins a six-man bench. Tim Robinson and Vic Mauro are the likely two to be cut by Des Hasler. The Warriors go into the Grand Final unchanged with Steve Rapira added as 18th man.

The Issues: The biggest issue for Ivan Cleary's men this week is travel. The Warriors have had to travel from Auckland to Australia in five of the last six weeks and this sixth trip is sure to take some toll. Cleary will be hoping such a young group will keep the side fresh. Also a worry for the Warriors will be their lack of Grand Final experience. Only three Warriors have played in a premiership decider and only Lance Hohaia has donned the Warriors jersey in a Grand Final. Not a single Warrior has tasted Grand Final success.

For Manly, their preparation has been sound with the only query being the fitness and timing of returning duo Glenn Stewart and Darcy Lussick, who have each missed the club's last three matches after the Brookvale Brawl. Both should be fine but a month out of top grade league could impact the timing of each, which is particularly relevant to ball-playing forward Stewart. Also a slight worry for Manly is the speculation that coach Des Hasler may be on his way out. It has been rumoured that Canterbury have made a big-money offer to Hasler, who has reportedly fallen out with the front office. He remains under contract next year but this could prove a distraction.

Breakdown: These two teams are extremely evenly matched with Manly holding the slightest of edges in the backline while the Warriors hold the advantage in both the pack and on the bench. If Manly are to win, they will need to hold square up the middle before exploiting the defence of centre pairing Lewis Brown and Krisnan Inu, who are both vulnerable defensively. They will also look to pepper Manu Vatuvei with kicks. If Manly get on top, it will be Jamie Lyon, Glenn Stewart and Steve Matai who will look the goods. If the Warriors are to claim their first premiership, they need to play as they did against the Storm, using their aggressive forward pack to lay the foundation for success. The Warriors forward pack dominated the Storm with hard running and enthusiasm in the tackle giving New Zealand a major field position advantage. Combined with the discipline they showed and commitment to structure, the Warriors put up their best ever win last Saturday. On balance, it looks like the Warriors pack will get on top and in a low-scoring game that should be enough. The Warriors' ability down the spine also seems to be underrated. The upset is well and truly on if New Zealand can just keep the Sea Eagles quiet on the fringes.

BPL Tip: New Zealand by 4
TAB Sportsbet odds: Manly $1.55, New Zealand $2.50