Ant Frosh is BPL'S MMA expert.

B.J. Penn's UFC lightweight title loss to Frankie Edgar (by unanimous decision) in April was a huge upset that almost no one predicted.  This Sunday (Australian time), the greatest lightweight in mixed martial arts (MMA) history will try to avenge his first loss at lightweight since 2002 in a rematch.

In the other heavily promoted fight on the card, ‘has-been' boxing champion, James ‘Lights-Out' Toney, in his first ever MMA fight, is set to be slaughtered by UFC legend Randy Couture.

The two big questions concerning Penn vs. Edgar are: why did almost no one predict Edgar's victory over Penn? And can Penn turn things around to recapture his lightweight championship?

The thing about Edgar is that he does not easily capture the fans' collective imagination. He lacks overwhelming power, lethal strikes, and does not possess a dangerous submission game. Edgar is essentially a ‘stick and move' points fighter.  He has fast feet and hands, as well as tremendous cardio and mental focus that means he never stops moving and remains as elusive at the end of the fight as he is at the beginning. Like a mosquito in a dark room, he darts around inflicting damage that is more annoying than threatening; never really going to put his victim out of commission, he is nevertheless extremely hard to swat.

Penn, on the other hand, is a fighter that easily captures the imagination of fight fans.  Supremely talented, he has all the tools to finish a fight. Incredible balance, knock out power in his hands, a fatal flying knee, and as a former world champion in jiu jitsu, his submission game is the best in the division.

Penn's only weakness is his endurance. Typically, Penn's talent surplus has meant that his stamina deficit has not cost him. To defeat the energetic Edgar, Penn probably needs to finish him within the first three rounds.  Once it gets past this point, Edgar, who does not even have to cut weight and thus has exceptional staying power, will be at a distinct advantage.

Penn also needs to be prepared to try to take Edgar down to the mat if the stand-up contest looks like being a repeat of their first encounter.  While Edgar is a sound wrestler, Penn's jiu jitsu is miles ahead. Why Penn did not even try to exploit this advantage in the first fight is unclear - perhaps he ran out of puff, or perhaps he just didn't realise he was losing on points in the stand-up game.

Even if Edgar proves too elusive to take down, then here's a radical idea for B.J. to consider: let Edgar take him down! This might sound counter-intuitive, but if Edgar shoots in on Penn for a takedown, Penn should just allow him to do so, and then wrap Edgar up in his highly dangerous guard. From that position, Penn would be a good chance to use his vastly superior submission skills to finish the fight.

In contrast, the James Toney v Randy Couture fight can only be described as a total mismatch. The fact that UFC boss Dana White has set Toney's first fight against a legend like Couture tells us that White has no long-term aspirations for Toney's career. Rather, he has booked what will almost certainly be a ‘squash-match' in order to make the point that professional boxers with no MMA experience are unfit to step foot in the Octagon. Not only is Toney lacking in the necessary skills, he is also looking out of shape. Essentially, he's a middleweight boxer who's unhealthily eaten his way to heavyweight status.  Unfortunately, this will not be every fans dream boxing vs. MMA clash - that would involve either a champion boxer at the top of his game (e.g. Manny Pacquiao or Floyd Mayweather Jr.), or otherwise, Iron Mike Tyson.

Expect Couture to shoot at Toney's legs and take him down early and finish the fight on the ground. Toney's only chance is that Couture first tries to stand with him just to challenge himself, giving Toney the chance to land a knockout punch. Either way, I guarantee that this fight will end in the first round.