James Packer is back in the business of television. The son of former Nine tycoon Kerry Packer, who sold Nine a number of years back, has made a major move to control the Ten Network. This week he is said to have launched at $250-million coup on the Ten Network which gives him a 17.88 per cent ownership share with that stake expected to be lifted to 19.9 per cent in the very near future. Packer is now the largest shareholder in Ten.

That move, however, spells bad news for sports fans wanting to watch sport on free-to-air television. Because there are now real fears OneHD will be replaced by Sky News.

Ten have endeared themselves to sports fans across Australia through their decision to dedicate one of their multi-channels to an all-sport network, One HD. One simulcasts a number of Ten-owned events including AFL matches, Formula 1 motor racing and the Commonwealth Games while also airing live NFL, NBA, NBL, Major League Baseball, UFC, boxing, Nascar, netball and Indian Premier League cricket exclusively. One HD also produces a number of sporting programs including Sports Tonight and the popular panel talk show Thursday Night Live.

One HD has become a major player in the purchasing of sports broadcast rights in Australia. There is no doubt One HD has substantial overheads and is a costly operation though Ten boss Grant Blackley said One "makes a profitable contribution to the Network". One also happens to drive the rights of other sporting events up by contesting them.

This is a major problem for James Packer, who owns 25 per cent of Foxtel and 50 per cent of Premier Media Group, the organisation that owns Fox Sports.

This whole move on Ten by Packer is based on sport.

The best-case scenario is that Packer has purchased Ten with an eye to building on One HD, using the legislative advantages free-to-air networks have in the purchasing of sports rights to make Ten/One HD the home of major Australian sport.

That scenario is probably hopelessly optimistic, though.

It seems that at the very least Packer will tighten Ten's belt. He is likely to be a little gun-shy after blowing much of his fortune from the sale of Nine on casino investments that went south when the GFC hit and One HD would likely be the first in line for cuts as sports rights costs a lot more than reruns of Everybody Loves Raymond and The Simpsons.

The worst-case scenario for sports fans is that One HD is shut down. This is a very real possibility if Packer wins enough support to control the direction of the network. A number of media analysts including Business Spectator and Elizabeth Knight of Fairfax suggest that One HD will be replaced by Sky News. Axing One HD and replacing it with Sky News would significantly improve Ten's bottom line as it would appreciably reduce costs. It would also eliminate one of the major players in sports rights bidding, reducing costs for both Foxtel and Fox Sports, both Packer holdings.

This scenario would be disastrous for Australian sports fans who have become accustomed to waking up Monday morning to the NFL, watching replays of NBA and MLB matches and seeing every match of the Indian Premier League late at night at no cost.

It would also be disastrous for a number of sporting organisations.

The axing of One HD would be diabolical for the NBL. The NBL has only recently signed a long-term television deal with One, bringing the sport back to free-to-air television for the first time in a decade. It is a major boon for local basketball that two-to-three matches a week are shown live with every match expected to be shown in a number of years. Ratings for the first week were very good and suggested that the free-to-air coverage will play a critical role in the growth of the NBL. The opening week ratings were described by Ten's General Manager of Sport David White as "an excellent result" and "extremely exciting". The closure of One HD would have disastrous ramifications for an NBL trying to relaunch itself as a popular and relevant sporting code.

Netball would suffer a similar blow.

The NRL and AFL could also take significant hits if One HD is closed down. Both are set to negotiate major television deals in 2011 and Ten/One HD are expected to be a major player in the AFL negotiations and a minor player in the NRL.

Ten currently share the free-to-air television AFL rights with Seven. If Packer decides he does not want the AFL, that would take a major player out of the market and could significantly hurt the amount the AFL receives from the next television deal. Packer is also unlikely to push for more free-to-air games considering his substantial investment in Foxtel and Fox Sports with pay television rights purchased at a significantly lower sum than free-to-air rights.

Ten/One HD is not expected to have the funds to win exclusive NRL free-to-air rights with Nine and Seven expected to battle that one out but there is the possibility that Ten could enter into a partnership with one of the other two commercial networks, allowing them to make a play at a possible Saturday afternoon game or even the Monday night game. The NRL will almost certainly divide up the rights and Ten would become far more interested if they missed out on the AFL. If Ten is ruled out of the race, the NRL may again sell its television rights at under the odds.

The NRL is also the prized jewel of Fox Sports. The elimination of One HD would reduce the push for additional free-to-air games which again protects Packer's investment in pay television.

So Packer's involvement in free-to-air TV would seem to be grim news for sports fans. They will now have their fingers crossed those fears don't come to pass because One HD has been one of the best things to happen to them this decade.