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Time NFL coaches played percentages

The Shark

The Shark

Written on Monday, 27 December 2010 21:41

In an era of sophistication and improvement just about everywhere, it never ceases to amaze me how backward NFL coaches continue to be.

To my mind, they keep making decisions that fly in the face of game theory - and computer programs developed by people who can tell you the percentages on just about any play.

Yesterday, for example, Dallas staged a terrific comeback from 21-3 to 21-19 with 13 minutes to go. Then they chose to kick the extra point instead of trying for the two-point conversion, effectively saying they would rather be stuck 21-20 (which will happen 95% of the time) than have a 40% chance of 21-21 and 60% of remaining 21-19 (not much different to 21-20).

The irony here, of course, is that if Dallas were the team in front and were asked what they'd prefer the opposition to do, they'd say PLEASE kick the point so we can stay in front and retain possession of the ball! Of course, the TV commentator congratulated the Dallas coach on his decision!

The mind boggles. Doesn't it ever occur to these lamebrains to actually do the opposite of what the opposition want?

Last week, Green Bay were leading the Patriots at home by three points in the last quarter (when they were a 14-point underdog with the bookmakers.) I, of course, took 9/1 outright and was mad as hell at their stupidity.

At 4th and 2 on the goaline, the lamebrains kicked a field goal to go up by six points.

The Pats are on their knees, praying, begging the Packers: please kick a fieldgoal so we only trail by six - and retain some hope that Brady will drive for a touchdown ... which he duly did and they won the game.

Here's a thought. How about driving in for the touchdown and trying to lead by 10 in the last quarter? Then life wouldn't be quite so easy for the Pats! It's a good educated gamble ... but gambling is a dirty word in the NFL.

OK, you say, but what if we don't make it? Well, guess what, you still lead by three and the Pats (in this case) start at the two-yard line - not much different than trailing by six and starting at 30-yard line.

The NFL still have not come to terms with the fact that play calling is very much a game-theory problem, better solved by computer programs.

And, let's be blunt here, this appears beyond the limited scope of most ex-footballers purporting to be head coaches!

Postscript: Up until about 10 years ago, poker - specifically No Limit Hold 'em - was played the old-fashioned way. (Was there any other?)

But with the advent of internet poker, the wizz kids into strategic games and game theory soon realised they could develop a superior way to play. Theirs was a faster, pressure style which took their opponents out of their comfort zones.

Guess what? The old fellas got left behind. You were dead meat unless you were prepared to embrace the clearly superior style.

Does that sound familiar? To my mind, it is applicable to NFL football and the old-time head coaches who are yet to embrace the new ways and new technology ...

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