Written on Friday, 21 May 2010 09:44
A month ago, talk of the Waratahs and the Crusaders marching into South Africa and beating the rampant Stormers and the table-topping Bulls rightly would have induced many guffaws.
The New South Welshmen, despite flashes of brilliance, were prone to playing ponderous forcings-back style footy looking for the sideline more than the tryline at the wrong times in games, while the New Zealanders were stumbling through Australia and South Africa, seemingly a mere shadow of their former tenacious selves.
The odds are still stacked in favour of the Stormers snuffing out the Waratahs in Cape Town and the Bulls knocking over the Crusaders in Soweto, but the prospect of the visitors having the last laugh in the Super 14 semi finals is very real.
The Waratahs, almost in spite of themselves, have discovered how to make the most of their considerable talent. Attack!
Rather than slowly building momentum and prioritising field position over all else, they've found a new gear, playing with lightning speed at the breakdown, embracing counter-attack opportunities, particularly at the back, and gloriously using the kick option as a weapon not a shield.
The Waratahs probably have the harder assignment of the Australasian sides, with the Stormers playing at home in front of 52,000 at Newlands and boasting the best defensive record in the Super 14.
In bidding to become the first Australian team to win a playoff in South Africa, the Waratahs will have to find the key to unlock the Stormers measly defence which conceded only 171 points during the regular season, a mere 13 points a game.
Kurtley Beale and Drew Mitchell (pictured above, yesterday, in Cape Town) might just be the men for the job, as they were against the Hurricanes in Sydney last weekend. NSW gobbled up possession early against the ‘Canes and crucially, backed themselves to wriggle out of tricky situations by keeping ball in hand.
Their cleanout at the breakdown was terrific and scrumhalf Luke Burgess can erase memories of a mediocre season if he can again marshall the attack from the base with swiftness in thought and deed.
Both the Waratahs and the Crusaders used attacking kicks, including the high-risk chip kick, to get behind the defensive line last week. The Stormers will be aware of this ploy, but if it's used judiciously, maximum benefit can be gained against the South Africans who, as much as any team in the comp, walk the off-side tightrope, especially around the fringes of the ruck.
The Waratahs learned first hand how not to play the Stormers when they crashed to an ugly 27-6 loss at Newlands in the second round. The Australians went into their shell early, trying to out-graft the Cape Town side.
NSW could do worse than studying Queensland's 16-13 win over the Stormers in round 11. Although the Reds only managed the one try, they did crack the Stormers in attack several times and set up the win with punishing defence (border-line offside for a lot of the game).
The Reds' penchant for switching lines of attack every few phases ensured they control the pace and momentum of many of the games they played this year, while Quade Cooper's no look inside pass and Will Genia's flick to Digby Ioane should be two plays the Waratahs copy. If there are in-roads to be made it will be one or two quick passes off the ruck as the Stormers scramble to realign their defensive wall.
NSW's weakness may be in the scrum with raw front rower Dan Palmer filling in for the injured Benn Robinson. It will be crucial for the visitors to hold their own in the set pieces and not fall foul of the referee Mark Lawrence who has a habit of blowing the pea out of the whistle at scrum time.
A stop-start game will favour the home team immensely. The Waratahs must back themselves to the hilt -- better to go down in a blaze of glory than concede defeat in an arm wrestle.
A Crusaders victory over the Bulls in Soweto earlier in the day would add some spice to the Waratahs-Stormers encounter with a home final in offering for the Australians.
It's not inconceivable that the New Zealanders will overcome the Bulls' juggernaut, especially with the South Africans giving up their home fort, the 50,000 seater Loftus Versfeld in the Afrikaaner stronghold of Pretoria.
The stadium is undergoing preparations for the upcoming soccer World Cup, so the Bulls will venture into relatively under-explored rugby territory in Soweto, at the 40,000 capacity Orlando Stadium.
The Bulls won the last encounter between the two sides two weeks ago - a heart stopping 40-35 victory achieved with a controversial try in the last play of the game. The Crusaders were superb for slabs of that game and near perfect against the Brumbies the following week, so they'll fancy their chances of an upset.
Much will depend on how Australian referee Stu Dickinson polices the breakdown. Dickinson is one of the few refs who holds Crusaders' ace Richie McCaw accountable in ruck and maul situations.
If McCaw can't pilfer or disrupt the Bulls ball, the South Africans have the machinery to over the top of the Crusaders. But if the New Zealanders can get their fair share of the pill early and play at pace, the big Bulls might be in for a shock.
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