Written on Friday, 11 June 2010 09:25
In a gallant attempt to re-enforce England rugby's traditional quality of handwringing, self-doubt leading to the occasional choke, let's just say, if they can't beat the injury-hit Wallabies in Perth on Saturday, they may not get another chance for a long time.
England have only won two games of the 15 they've played on Australian soil and both of those were in the Poms' World Cup winning year, 2003. But this strong, hungry and rested squad comes into the first of two Cook Cup fixtures with a distinct advantage in the tight forwards and the potential to stay with the Australians in backline play.
Injury has led to Wallaby coach Robbie Deans opting for raw potential rather than guile in the front row with Salesi Ma'afu (1), Saia Faingaa (1) and Ben Daley, incredibly boasting just two caps between them and bench prop James Slipper taking his place despite schoolboy rugby still being fresh in his memory.
England too, won't have all their first choices up front, but have the luxury of being able to draw on a greater stock of cauliflowered-eared boofheads, including rugby forwards. (That's three of them pictured, above: Dan Cole, Steve Thompson and Tim Payne.)
Making his debut against against a large aggressive pack, 21-year old Daley at least knows he's already gone head to head with international class front rowers in the Super 14.
"Coming up against some of those big South African sides, they are sort of a similar beast to the English pack," Daley says. "(It) gives you a bit of confidence going into this game."
But it's not just the loss of experience that will hurt Australia, it's the absence of pure excellence. First choice front rowers Benn Robinson and Tatafu Polota-Nau are simply world class and amongst the best players in the Super 14, while injured Brumbies Ben Alexander and Stephen Moore would vie for spots in the front row of any team.
Add to that, the conspicuous absence of Wycliff Palu's power at No. 8 for the season; Will Genia having to hand the starting reins to Luke (lob me that pass) Burgess at scrumhalf and the sidelining of Australia's most explosive runner, Adam Ashley-Cooper, and things are looking shaky.
And despite the impressive form of second rowers Nathan Sharpe and ‘Tiny' Dean Mumm, Australia's options at lock are so shallow, one injury could devastate the Wallabies' chances of having enough quality ball to let their fine backline loose.
At least the Australian coaching staff should know what to expect from England.
The Poms will base much of their game around the set piece. Working towards domination in the scrum, disruption in the line out and use of the rolling maul.
The hunt for territorial advantage with the boot will likely be matched by prominent use of the pick and drive as the huge Pommy forwards seek to commit the smaller, though more mobile Australians to the breakdown.
Usually that would be the end of story. The goal would be for the Wallabies to absorb the forward pressure then have their wicked way the the stuttering English backs. But not this time.
The England backline is large, athletic and can be adventurous. If Australia wastes the minority share of ball they're likely to be presented with for the vast majority of the match, the Pommy outside backs such as former leaguie Chris Aston and Mark Cueto have the pace and ability to make the Wallabies pay.
The England halves combination of Danny Care and Toby Flood brings better options for a running attack than a Jonny Wilkinson-inspired strategy seeking to constantly turn the opposition around, often with kicks. So if the English play intelligently through the ruck and maul, by committing Australia's numbers in close, they have, for a change, the ability to capitalise through an attack-minded backline.
The first 20 minutes will be crucial. If the Wallabies can blunt the England forward power and mess with their game plan, they'll back themselves to come home with wind in their sails.
The Poms have shown an inability under Johnson's coaching, in particular, to embrace a Plan B should things become unpredictable.
They may not be the rabble they were a few seasons ago, but they are yet to demonstrate they have unqualified self-belief (as evidenced by their flawed Six Nations campaign).
This is probably this underachieving side's best opportunity to deliver on its promise.
For the sake of this Cook Cup series and next year's World Cup, the Wallabies will be striving to ensure the visitors don't even get a sniff, but it'll be a tough ask.
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