He is a bear of a man, a farmer. No nonsense, well educated, modest. He loves his rugby - "I played a bit" - and provides snippets of quiet wisdom about sport and life.

As the plane sweeps into Nelson, home to New Zealand's oldest rugby club and an unlikely mix of small city simplicity and sophistication, he points out the window at a property perched on an emerald green hill.

"That's my place. Family's been in Nelson since the first ship arrived in 1842. Not like your convict lot," he says with a gentle laugh.

Who is this bloke? He's like a plant from Kiwi central casting: amiable, amusing - great company - and unable to openly declare that the All Blacks, the globe's best side by a good margin, will win the World Cup on home soil in October.

"Just don't want to say it, do we?" he says. "Not after what's happened before."

It cuts deep: the All Blacks' failure to realise their full potential in World Cup competition has a nation of rugby nutters on edge.

So as we lumber out of the little plane, it is clearly my obligation to summon my coarsest Australian self: "You think they might choke again?"

I get a wry smile in reply and then Mr New Zealand is gone.

From the expatriate pubs in New York and London to craft bars in Wellington and Nelson and the diehard supporter hangouts in Auckland; from rugby wannabes to All Black legends, they just don't want to say it, or even think it: that this is New Zealand's Cup to lose.

They did win it once, in 1987, arguably in the days before the tournament had taken on its status as the premier indicator of the world's No.1 team.

Since then it's been chapter after chapter of what could or should have been for the mighty All Blacks.

In 1995, they were runners up while in 1991 and 2003 third place was the best they could do. Fourth spot in 1999 was tragic for the Kiwi rugby community, but the All Blacks' quarter final exit, courtesy of France (20-18), in 2007 broke hearts, shook the game to its core in New Zealand and fueled cruel "chokers" calls from shallow people like me.

After wandering around in shock for a while immediately after the last World Cup, the All Blacks' reply has been to flog just about everyone at least once, winning the Tri-Nations in 2008 and 2010 and humiliating the Wallabies with 10 straight victories.

Yet the damage has been done. In every city where Australia will play pool matches: Auckland, Wellington and Nelson, officials, players and supporters adopt what's almost a "don't talk about the war" stance when it comes to previewing their beloved team's chances.

Even a gathering with a group of eminently sensible rugby folk at the 141-year-old Nelson Rugby Club produces undue handwringing (and a splendid lunch).

"Everyone is a little cautious. We don't want to shout about it," says Peter Barr a former oil company executive who heads up the Tasman Makos provincial rugby organisation. "You can't ignore the history."

Chest beating before the job is done is about as common in NZ as a sun tan in Britain - it's just not natural. Certainly an incident such as the leak of the England team's Nike-brand advertisement, celebrating the Poms' expected sweep through the Six Nations before they were unceremoniously belted by the Irish, would induce Kiwi tears.

Instead, in the cozy Nelson clubhouse next to recently renovated Trafalgar Park where Australia will take on Russia, the talk -- as it seems to everywhere in the country -- turns to who will be the All Blacks' biggest threat.

"Australia has to be it," says Barr, reflecting a view expressed without exception over several days in New Zealand.

Barr and Nelson club president Shane Fowler weren't just being polite hosts: the young Wallabies' victory in Hong Kong last October to end the ugliness of their losing streak, might have been against an All Blacks side that had already won it all in 2010, but New Zealanders recognise that Robbie Deans' squad is on the up.

"A New Zealand-Australia final is a pretty good bet and certainly the All Blacks won't be underestimating them," according to former All Black Grant Fox, who dutifully stops short of saying the Kiwis will win it all.

Another All Black, Fox's teammate in the 1987 Cup squad, A.J. Whetton agrees, but the hard man, surrounded by annoying Aussie journalists during the course of the Stormers' ridiculous Super 15 comeback defeat of the Blues (can anyone say "choke") at Eden Park, isn't going to take a backward step.

"I think it's there for the taking," Whetton says, almost breaking the unofficial-nationwide agreement not to declare victory before a head is rucked in anger.

Later, over a few fine beverages in one of Auckland's many congenial bars, I ask again whether this will be the All Blacks' Cup and the 65-Test veteran says exactly what 4.2 million Kiwis are thinking: "Oh yeah. You know it."

Mission accomplished. The seal has been broken. I slink back to KAOS headquarters, having done my part for the wider rugby community. At least now, other teams have an outside chance of upsetting the All Blacks: the finest rugby team in the universe and, unquestionably, red-hot World Cup favourites.