Written on Wednesday, 03 August 2011 08:59
So now it begins.
Forget the understrength Springboks' sad tour of Australasia and, dare I say it, let's move on from Samoa's Sydney upset that pleased the soul and wrecked a few international careers.
The real business gets underway on Saturday when the two best sides in rugby meet in Auckland in a contest that could be a preview of the World Cup final on October 23.
Of course the full-strength Springboks, England, France and Ireland would remind us not to get ahead of ourselves, but, to be sure, the first Bledisloe battle of the season and the 123rd in history will set the bar for the other contenders. It's likely to be high.
Unlike some other Test matches in this World Cup year, this game is stuffed with significance: the All Blacks want to resume their recent mastery of the Wallabies in the rundown to the Cup while the young Australians want to prove they have broken the shackles and are capable of beating anyone anywhere, even at Eden Park where the good guys last won in 1986.
Both coaches are past the experimenting stage with their squads. A little tinkering may be required before the Cup -- the Australians are sweating on getting their best player Tatafu Polota-Nau, his front-row mate Benn Robinson and battering ram Wycliff Palu back from injury -- but a new generation has taken over for the Wallabies and there will be no looking back.
By dispensing with veteran Nathan Sharpe and again overlooking the rare talent of Matt Giteau, Australian coach Robbie Deans has made his intentions clear: he wants grit, abrasiveness and belligerence from his forwards and unpredictable attack and brave defence from his backs.
The selection of Dan Vickerman and Sitaleki Timani in the 24 man squad for the New Zealand trip over Sharpe alludes to what must be Deans' greatest concern: a lack of collective authority in the contact zone.
Palu's long injury layoffs over the last few seasons have highlighted the issue. The Wallabies, without conspicuous ball-in-hand bruts, have lacked go-forward in around the breakdown and their commitment to win the physical battle runs hot and cold. The pick and drive is the weakest aspect of the Australian game.
What's more, the Wallabies' sometimes effective tactic of not overcommitting to the breakdown is their Achilles heel against aggressive teams such as England and the All Blacks whose players swarm to counter ruck.
New Zealand, England and Australia's cluey WC pool opponents from Ireland, would have relished watching the Samoans smash the Wallabies off the ball. They would have noted too the success of the Springboks' rolling maul in Sydney.
Of course, the Queensland pair of James Horwill and Rob Simmons will likely be the starting locks in Auckland, but with Vickerman and Timani waiting in the wings, the big second rowers will be out to prove that running through brick walls is no obstacle.
Simmons, still a little raw and maybe a season away from being an utter terror, will be tested mercilessly by those nasty old warhorses in the Blacks pack. Deans will demand his second rowers demonstrate they are complete mongrels for at least 60 minutes or until they collapse from exhaustion.
It's not just about giving the brilliant Australian backs a platform to attack, attaining parity in tight gives the speedsters a licence to thrill. There is no value in Quade Cooper cross-field kicking for cheeky wingers or running from his own quarter if the piggies aren't capable of getting on the front hoof.
Such will be the focus on attrition, many of the best attacking opportunities -- for the first hour at least -- will probably come on the counter: a talent both teams possess to unreasonable levels. Sloppy kicking, dropped ball and attackers getting isolated (and counter-rucked) could prove to be decisive mistakes.
Both the ABs and the Wallabies have the capacity to play without the ball for long periods, waiting for the opposition to fumble or be feeble. With this in mind, the AB's playmaker extraordinaire Dan Carter is exactly the kind of No.10 you want pulling the strings. His kicking game in general play is superb and he'll be looking for the corners regularly while Australia might rely more on ball-in-hand graft and Will Genia's questionable box kicks to rumble down field.
You can bet, too, Carter and the New Zealanders will relentlessly point play in Cooper's direction. The Aussies are hiding him on Digby Ioane's wing in defence. The Kiwis won't want to give the Reds' maestro room to counter, but they'll come out with a plan to repeatedly test him out on the flank.
For so long the Australian scrum was viewed as the make or break issue going into a Test match against the All Blacks, Springboks or England. No more, but the overall power game remains no less significant.
When the Wallabies play well, it's often behind a rampaging Rocky Elsom, a burrowing David Pocock and the outrageous Cooper.
The stars seem to be aligning at the right time for the Wallabies, but if you see an All Black ensemble stomping over a gold shirt in a counter ruck or Genia taking an eternity to set up the next piggy drive, it's time to be afraid, very afraid.
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