Written on Thursday, 06 October 2011 09:02
Who is the best team not in the World Cup quarter finals? Yep, better believe it, the Samoans.
The eight sides left in the tournament should all thank their lucky stars (and maybe referees Alain Rolland and Nigel Owens and the World Cup match scheduling gurus) that the islanders aren't around any more.
Bitter and ranting, Samoan centre Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu may not have been terribly eloquent in his Twittering condemnation of the treatment his team received at the tournament, but his frustration is understandable.
Those boys were robbed.
But, as we say over cucumber sandwiches and gin and tonics, the game must go on, eh, what?
So it's the big eight, split conveniently, courtesy of Australia's appalling pool loss to Ireland, into a northern hemisphere side of the draw and a talented side of the draw.
It's true any team can win it from here, so let's put some, if not all, our prejudices aside and run the eye glass over the sides to speculate what they need to do to win and what they must do to avoid defeat, disgrace and imprisonment. OK, we'll restrict it to defeat (although Mike Tindall must be close to being sent to The Tower).
Let's start with a laugh: France.
Truly, has there ever been a more absurd situation? A team clearly rebelling against its coach mid-tournament, splintered by apparent ego clashes?
What's that? The soccer World Cup? France?
Oh, of course. Guess they must be teaching pomposity, self interest and stupidity at all the leading French sports institutes.
It's a tragedy, not only because I can't speak French so I don't understand just how loopy some of the things coach Marc Lievremont is saying, but les bleus is such a brilliant bunch when on song.
They can still surprise and who better to do it against than their arch enemies England on Saturday, but at no stage in this tournament have they looked anything but a shadow of their former selves.
The key against England will be to a) show up, and b) show commitment to spreading the ball. The French will hold their own in the set pieces, so they should set out to run the Poms ragged.
The English are limited, seemingly poorly coached and haven't played more than 40 minutes of good rugby the entire tournament, yet they inevitably show excellent commitment and perseverance in tournament play.
Perhaps it was the pre-World Cup dwarf-throwing outing that threw them but the Poms were horrible early in the event. However they still pipped ponderous Argentina first up and remain unbeaten going into the finals. What's more, you get the feeling they will relish playing a disjointed French team.
If they get favorable weather conditions (heavy going) and a favorable referee (inevitable), they will be happy to grind to victory, despite having excellent threats on the wings and at the back. Sure, supporters of several other teams would prefer to take their own lives rather than watch such dreary footy, but England are at their best winning ugly.
England by 10.
Not so dreary -- the Welsh. The boyos have been a revelation at the tournament. They dodged a bullet against Samoa but should have taken their opener against South Africa. Their young captain and splendid backrower Sam Warburton clearly sparks the team. He's a keeper that one.
The Welsh defence has been suspect in recent years, but their system looks tight in this event and it could prove the difference against Ireland.
All credit to the Irish for beating Australia and flogging Italy, but I'm still not convinced they can go all the way. They have excellent defensive structure and some rare attacking talent, but they hardly ever fire on all cylinders and the bench is a problem for them.
Wales will be expecting the Irish to muscle up and try to belt them. But if the Irish are to win the World Cup, they need to play the next three matches with the pace and attitude they showed against England in the Six Nations, focusing on swift breakdown ball.
Wales by six.
The Wallabies should finally be prepped to fulfill their potential against South Africa in Wellington on Sunday, but the cards are falling nicely for the Saffers. It will be raining, windy and miserable in Wellington, perfect conditions for the Springboks' high ball and bash and barge game.
Furthermore, New Zealander Bryce Lawrence, the momentum referee who crucified the admittedly sub-par Australians against Ireland, is back for a third turn at adjudicating the Australians in the tournament. No message there, IRB, huh?
How much focus do you think the defending champions will have on disrupting that first Australian scrum? If the Wobblies get shoved back even an inch early, forgetaboutit. They'll be penalised out of a game.
The key for Australia will be to start aggressively. They will outlast the South Africans and outrun them, but they can't hand the ascendancy to them at any stage, especially early in tough conditions.
South Africa by .... no I can't. Australia by three.
And we all know who the Dan Carter-less (DCL) All Blacks will be hoping wins the Wallabies-Boks match.
They know the Aussies might have their measure in a semi-final, especially without the injured Carter to provide direction. The South Africans on the other hand, are easier to read and will be a slightly less nerve-jangling opponent for the hosts.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves: the DCL ABs have to overcome an always-game Argentina in Auckland on Sunday.
The Argies will want to keep it close when they're not kicking the crap out of the ball. They have a fine tight five but need teams to play to their style.
Despite the absence of Carter (how many times can we get that in), the DCL ABs should have too much firepower all over the park. Even Colin Slade can't mess this one up.
The DCL All Blacks by 15.
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