Written on Monday, 10 October 2011 07:48
South Africa should have won, Australia deserved to.
Make no mistake, the Wallabies' 11-9 quarter final victory was fortuitous, but courage influences luck.
The Wallabies' performance in Wellington was one for the ages: just 25 per cent of territory and under 40 percent of often messy possession and they still pipped an experienced Springboks outfit that made a few vital mistakes but in large part probably couldn't have played much better.
The Australian forwards worked themselves to a standstill, looking haggard and close to overwhelmed at times, but never relented. When they weren't mugging the Boks in pairs, they were at least being great nuisance value getting dragged around the park like they were clinging to the rear bumper of a runaway road train.
David Pocock earned every plaudit that will come his way in a display that ranks with the very best by an Australian flanker. He was a recurring nightmare for the Boks. They would pour over the advantage line, the hard work done, only to encounter the annoying Wallaby No.7, lording over the ball carrier and refusing to budge until he'd at least slowed the play.
Australia made three times the number of tackles as the Boks who enjoyed a two to one superiority in ruck and maul possession.
The Wallabies' critics will insist they were bullied throughout the game and suggest the All Blacks will be rubbing their hands gleefully in anticipation of doing the same in next weekend semi final.
But the New Zealanders know better. The Australian scrum was solid against the excellent South African unit, only capitulating conspicuously once early in the game, but for the most part the piggies in gold gave as good as they got.
The lineout is a concern -- the Australians lost five of their own, but credit to the Saffer colossus Victor Matfield who was dominant. The Kiwis won't have that same edge.
Suggestions that Australia's much vaunted attacking prowess has deserted them would be misplaced. They simply didn't get enough ball to launch anything, let alone build an attacking threat through the phases.
The 24 turnovers the South Africans coughed up gave the Australians just enough possession to hack out of trouble and stem the tide -- ambitious backline play will be back on the agenda next week.
Hopefully, too, Quade Cooper will be back on planet Earth with us all for the NZ showdown. He was in some far off place against the Boks. Such was the Springboks' dominance of quality possession, Cooper couldn't hide on the wing in defence everytime and he looked completely nonplussed the whole game.
Deans will no doubt keep faith with his side. Injuries may change things, especially with Pat McCabe resembling a plane crash victim at the end of the Boks game, but the main issue for the Australians will be getting the lineout right and ensuring Cooper hasn't lost his superpowers.
The All Blacks game will be a completely different beast. The New Zealanders will give Australia a few looks, rather than the taking the steamroller option employed by the Boks, and that in large part will suit the Wallabies, although if they don't get their share of possession the ABs will slice them up.
The potential loss to injury of the Kiwis back-up pivot Colin Slade will make a few locals nervous, but his replacement Aaron Cruden is a fine playmaker and a more dynamic presence than the unlucky Slade.
The Australians will go into the semi as big underdogs. The Eden Park hoodoo will get plenty of play in the buildup with Australia failing to win there for the last 25 years but, more tellingly, the Wallabies have demonstrated an unfortunate ‘habit' of not being able to string many consecutive victories together under Deans.
However the game in Wellington could be a major turning point for this young side. To be able to prevail in such a immensely courageous way, with no ball, while your influential No.10 is playing like an alien, must imbue a new level of self belief.
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