Written on Friday, 14 October 2011 09:16
(Cameron Larkin is a BPL Citizen Journalist.)
And then there were four.
After a gripping weekend of world-class rugby, Wales, France, Australia and New Zealand are the teams left standing and now only one game stands between them and a spot in the World Cup Final.
An interesting stat is that these sides also fought out the semi-finals back in the inaugural World Cup in 1987. On that occasion, Australia lost to France 24-30 and on the other side, the All-Blacks destroyed Wales 49-6. New Zealand went on to win 29-9 against France in the final yet - as you may have heard - have not been able to achieve that success since.
Let's look at the teams that will apply the war paint this weekend.
Wales has had a tremendous world cup tournament and last Saturday night they took all the opportunities on offer against the Irish.
The Welsh defence has been strong throughout and again it was dominant against Ireland. They go into their semi-final clash against the unpredictable French team with a solid X-factor about them with every chance of going the whole way. Players are enjoying the occasion and experience, and coach Gatland has said privately that there is no team that they can't beat - that's confidence for you and we're seeing that in the way they're playing.
Throughout the tournament, the Welsh selectors have been firm and consistent at the selection table: they have picked on form, not loyalty or past performances, and their strategy has so far paid off.
France turned up for the first time in this tournament last week when they took to the pitch against England. They were business-like and played conservatively and, in doing so, exposed England's shortcomings.
The French came out firing and matched England up forward and proved too good over the 80 minutes. Will they take that form into this weekend's match? I doubt if they even know.
Australia by now have stopped scratching their heads wondering how they won against the Springboks and are all set for the trans-Tasman battle against the All-Blacks. Only Kurtley Beale's hamstring twinge is causing them any concern.
South Africa did everything they could to win, however the Wallabies were strong and held them off. Referee Bryce Lawrence (currently being damned by the South African and British sports press) let the Wallabies get away with so much and Wallaby flanker David Pocock took advantage of that - in short, he played the ump well.
The Australians finished the match having racked up a three-to-one tackle count. The Wallabies were dominated everywhere on the park except the breakdown, and that will be ever so important for them this weekend when they play the world's top team, in a stadium (Eden Park) that has been their hoodoo ground since 1986.
New Zealand defeated the Pumas, 33-10, but that scoreline was misleading. Those watching saw how the All Blacks were forced to scramble for the points, scoring the majority of their points in the final 15 minutes of the match. New Zealand looked under pressure at stages as the Argentineans were physical and fronted up.
The All-Blacks can stand back, though, and say that's exactly what we needed - they will benefit from that match.
Last weekend was also significant due to Mils Muliaina notching up his 100th Test match against Argentina and that is something that didn't receive the full recognition he and the occasion deserved.
Wales v France (Saturday 7pm AEST)
Two big questions come to mind straight away.
Can Wales continue their top form and climb to take home ‘Bill'? Was last weekend a one-off for France - can they back it up against Wales?
This is set to be a very physical match. The difference between the two is that France is highly unpredictable and an extremely emotional side. Wales, in this World Cup, has been incredibly organised and could be too classy for Les Bleus, who could simply fade away if they concede an early lead.
An area in which Wales could be tested is in the loose forwards. The French loose forwards were very good against England, akin to Wales. Warburton will be a key factor for those in red on Saturday.
Last time they met the Frenchmen were far too good for Wales, prevailing 28-9 and at the same time put an end to Wales' chance of succeeding in the 2011 six nations.
New Zealand v Australia (Saturday 7pm AEST)
This clash is every bit of a World Cup final, only it has come one week early.
These two nations have great history. Three games stand out for me. Firstly in 2001 at Stadium Australia, also known as the last test match for champion captain John Eales. The teams went into the sheds after 40 minutes 16-9 in favour of the Australian's. The two powerhouses of world rugby put on a solid performance for the crowd in the second half. The second 40 belonged to the Kiwi's until a game-winning try by Toutai Kefu close to the hooter sounding sent Eales off in a fairytale ending.
Then in 2000, more than 109,000 people watched a 39-35 All-Blacks victory in Sydney. After only 11 minutes in the first half, the All-Blacks held a 24-0 lead in what was an awesome and dominant performance. However, the remaining 29 minutes went to the men in gold as they clawed their way back to even the game. Jonah Lomu would be the difference in the second half, claiming the matching winning try.
And finally, who could forget Eales' kick from the sideline late in the match to help Australia retain the Bledisloe Cup in 2000?
Where do you start? Australia can take the template from their battle with the All Blacks earlier this year. The Wallabies will look to try and shut out New Zealand's midfield whereas the Kiwis need to get at them physically, take on the scrum and get numbers at the break down. The All Blacks tight forwards also need to be solid and hurt Australia.
Cruden is a worry for New Zealand - he isn't a big guy and likes to take things on (even three large Argentinean men which necessarily a wise thing to do). Cruden must play for the team this week and not be an individual - that means knowing when to make the plays and what to take on. The other player coming in is Stephen Donald, who is not held in univerally high regard in NZ, and Hosea Gear who missed out on initial selection.
In the Australian corner, Quade Cooper had an awful match against South Africa and overall, he hasn't fired to the extent we all know he can. That is the big X factor in this clash, because if he turns up, then he could be very damaging.
Digby Ioane is a massive threat also and the Wallabies are thankful that he is in their line up. New Zealand will need to mug him quite heavily and lessen his impact on the end result.
The All Blacks have had a terrible last two weeks when you look at the injuries list. If it was any other side, I would rule them out of getting close or even winning the match. But the Kiwis are a close-knit group that become even more determined when down a few key personnel.
If the All Blacks forwards do their job, then the backs will thrive off the confidence and positive match play.
This is going to be a great game. The last time these two teams faced each other in a rugby World Cup was in the semi-finals - a game the Wallabies were victorious, 22-10, largely due to Flatley's five penalties.
The last time they played, in Brisbane this year, Australia defeated New Zealand in a rousing effort to win 25-20 after they took a 20-3 lead into the break. It was the Wallabies' first win in 19 years against New Zealand in Brisbane. Three weeks before that, the All Blacks punished Australia, 30-14, in Auckland.
The Prediction
I think Wales can reach its first World Cup final and, against the odds, I reckon the Wallabies might continue New Zealand's World Cup woe by sneaking past them in Sunday's semi.
In 1987, Australia played Wales in the playoff for third-place, a match in which the Welsh won by one point (22-21). Next week, the Wallabies led by James Horwill will - in my opinion - be in a position to reverse that result when they face off against each other in the this year's edition of the World Cup final.
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It's Wales v Wallabies for mine


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